Why is SpaceX stock up 0.3% as Starship launch targets cheaper Starlink capacity?

SpaceX shares rose 0.3% in overnight trading heading into Monday, as investors watched for the company's upcoming Starship launch and its potential impact on Starlink's network capacity. The stock move came ahead of Starship's first attempt to reach Earth orbit and deploy 26 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX Starship prepares for its first orbital flight with 26 Starlink V3 satellites. (REUTERS/Steve Nesius) (REUTERS)The launch is important because SpaceX plans to use Starship not only for space missions but also to expand its Starlink broadband network. SpaceX stock fell 3% last week, ending a four-week winning streak. Despite Monday's rise, SPCX shares remain down 8% so far this year.

SpaceX's Flight 14 mission is scheduled to launch from Starbase, Texas. The 75-minute launch window opens at 8:15 am ET on Monday, giving SpaceX a chance to attempt Starship's first orbital flight.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved Flight 14's launch and reentry operations over the weekend, clearing the way for the mission. SpaceX had earlier planned to launch the mission on September 22, but the flight was pushed back. SpaceX completed a full launch rehearsal last week before receiving the FAA authorization.

Flight 14 will be different from Starship's earlier test flights because the rocket is designed to enter Earth orbit for the first time. Earlier Starship tests followed suborbital paths. The spacecraft for the mission is Ship 41, which is expected to deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites during the flight.

The satellites are planned to be released at an altitude of about 275 kilometers above Earth. After deploying the satellites, Starship is expected to circle Earth six times before attempting a controlled deorbit. The spacecraft is then planned to splash down in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The entire Starship mission is expected to last nearly 10 hours. The Super Heavy booster, which powers Starship during launch, is planned to splash down in the Gulf of Mexico.

The 26 satellites give Flight 14 a commercial purpose, rather than making it only another test flight. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen called Flight 14 the company's first "revenue-generating flight" earlier this month. Johnsen also described Starship as "core to the rest of our business," highlighting how important the rocket could become for SpaceX's wider operations.

If the 26 V3 satellites are successfully deployed and eventually brought into service, they are expected to increase capacity across SpaceX's Starlink broadband network. Starlink says its larger V3 satellites have solar arrays designed to generate about twice as much power as the V2 satellites that SpaceX has previously launched using Falcon 9 rockets.

More power allows the larger satellites to support greater network capacity. Elon Musk has said that a fully deployed V3 Starlink constellation could eventually deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of today's Starlink network.

The upcoming launch has also raised expectations that Starship could eventually make it much cheaper for SpaceX to put Starlink network capacity into space. Aaron Burnett, founder and CEO of space-focused investment and research firm Mach33, estimates that the 26-satellite payload represents about 26 terabits per second (Tbps) of network capacity.

Based on his assumed cost for a Starship launch, Burnett estimates that putting this capacity into orbit would cost about $9.8 million for each Tbps on the Flight 14 mission. Burnett's estimate is close to his estimated cost per Tbps for SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, meaning Starship does not yet provide a major cost advantage under those assumptions.

However, Burnett expects the economics to improve as SpaceX learns to use Starship more efficiently. He expects larger payloads, greater rocket reuse and improvements in manufacturing to reduce the cost of launching Starlink capacity.

Burnett projects that the cost per Tbps could fall 16-fold by 2028 if those improvements are achieved. That potential cost reduction is one reason investors are watching Starship's progress closely, because cheaper launches could allow SpaceX to add Starlink capacity more quickly.

The potential scale of Starship has also led to much larger revenue estimates for Starlink. ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood said earlier this month that a future, larger Starship payload could deliver enough network capacity to support about $1 billion in annual Starlink revenue. Wood then connected that figure to Musk's long-term launch target.

Musk has said SpaceX wants to reach 10,000 Starship flights per year by 2030. Based on Wood's $1 billion annual revenue estimate per such payload, she calculated that reaching 10,000 flights could imply $10 trillion in annual revenue. That $10 trillion figure is a projection based on Wood's assumptions and SpaceX's stated launch ambitions, rather than current Starlink revenue.

Musk also said on X over the weekend that Starship could be two to three years away from hourly flights. SpaceX has also said it plans to attempt a launch-tower catch of the Starship upper stage after Flight 14. Musk has said he believes rapid, full reuse of Starship could be achievable in 2027.

Retail investor sentiment toward SPCX on Stocktwits changed from bullish to bearish over the past week. At the same time, SPCX message volume on Stocktwits jumped 74% over a 24-hour period, showing increased trader attention around the Starship launch.

Some retail traders are expecting a successful launch to push the stock higher. One Stocktwits user wrote that a successful flight could push SPCX above $200. Another user said a successful Monday launch could lead to a re-rating of the stock, pointing to Starship's potential role in future data-center payloads. These comments represent individual retail-trader views on Stocktwits, not confirmed forecasts from SpaceX or financial analysts.

The 0.3% rise in SPCX comes as investors focus on whether Starship can successfully reach orbit and deploy its first commercial Starlink payload. The bigger story is not just the 26 satellites on this mission, but whether Starship can eventually carry larger payloads, fly more often and be reused rapidly.

If those goals are achieved, Burnett's estimates suggest the cost of adding Starlink network capacity could fall sharply, potentially changing the economics of SpaceX's satellite business. For now, however, Flight 14 is still a test of whether Starship can complete its first orbital mission and successfully deploy the 26 V3 Starlink satellites.

Durva More is a Senior Content Producer at Hindustan Times, where she covers finance, and global news. She brings experience across digital and television journalism, with a strong focus on breaking news, business reporting, and international affairs. Before joining Hindustan Times, Durva worked as an International News Writer at The Economic Times, covering a diverse range of subjects including global politics, business, sports, entertainment, and major world events. She also worked as a Business Reporter with NDTV Profit. A postgraduate diploma holder in Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism, Durva is passionate about field reporting and storytelling. She thrives on the adrenaline of chasing stories, speaking with people from different walks of life, and amplifying voices that deserve to be heard. Her reporting is driven by curiosity, accuracy, and a commitment to making complex subjects accessible to readers. When she is not chasing stories or covering breaking news, Durva enjoys reading books and painting. She loves exploring new ideas, meeting people, and learning about different perspectives. For her, both journalism and art are ways to understand the world and tell stories that matter.Read More