What Philippines' aging population means, and what can be done

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines' fertility rate has fallen to 1.7 children per woman, sharpening concerns that a smaller future workforce will have to support a rapidly aging population.

The Commission on Population and Development (CPD) warned that persistently low fertility could eventually weaken the country's base of workers, taxpayers and contributors to social protection systems, while increasing demand for healthcare and other services for older Filipinos.

The country's total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current fertility patterns, dropped from 1.9 in 2022 to 1.7 in 2025, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

That is well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Mylin Mirasol Quiray, information management and communications division chief of the CPD, said Thursday that the effects would become more consequential as today's smaller cohorts eventually enter the labor force.

"Low fertility rate can be a hindrance to economic progress kasi mas magiging kaunti 'yung ating mga tao na ipinapanganak na maaaring mag-earn ng money, mag-spend, mag-save," Quiray said on "Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon" radio, citing the International Monetary Fund.

(A low fertility rate can be a hindrance to economic progress because fewer people will be born who can earn money, spend and save.)

She said the more immediate concern is the country's future contributor base, as fewer births today eventually translate into fewer workers.

"'Yung declining fertility maaaring ma-weaken 'yung contributory base natin, which is fewer workers na puwedeng mapanganak," she said, citing the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

(Declining fertility may weaken our contributory base, meaning fewer workers will be born.)

The shift is already visible in the country's age structure.

The 2024 Census of Population found that Filipinos aged 65 and older numbered 7.4 million, or 6.6% of the household population, up from 5.4% in 2020.

The country's median age also rose to 27.7 years in 2024 from 25.3 in 2020 and 24.3 in 2015, according to the PSA.

Meanwhile, Filipinos aged 60 and older reached 11.42 million, equivalent to 10.2% of the household population.

State-run research center PIDS has projected that people aged 65 and older could account for about 7.6% of the population by 2030, as the country moves further into an aging demographic structure.

Quiray said an older population would mean greater demand for public services.

"Kapag aging population na tayo, mas maraming pangangailangan 'no, sa health services, social services," she said.

(As our population ages, there will be greater demand for health services and social services.)

She said the government would need to invest earlier in health and human development so Filipinos can remain active and healthy as they age.

Recent PIDS research has warned that below-replacement fertility, combined with population aging and a potentially smaller labor force, could increase pressure on social security systems and government revenues over the longer term.

The demographic pressure is not immediate, however.

The Philippines still has a large working-age population. In 2024, about 74.95 million Filipinos, or 66.7% of the household population, were aged 15 to 64.

The overall dependency ratio improved to about 50 dependents for every 100 working-age Filipinos in 2024, from 57 in 2020.

Quiray said the current labor force remains large enough to support children and older dependents.

"Mas marami pa rin naman tayong workers dito sa ating population ngayon na puwedeng suportahan 'yung mga bata at saka matatanda," she said.

(We still have more workers in our population who can support children and older people.)

That gives the country time to prepare for the longer-term consequences of lower fertility.

PIDS likewise says the Philippines' demographic dividend remains open, but argues that policy must increasingly shift from controlling population growth toward building human capital and preparing for population aging.

That includes investing more heavily in early childhood development, education, healthcare and family support while the country still has a relatively large share of working-age people.

The decline in fertility also poses a more complicated policy challenge than simply encouraging Filipinos to have bigger families.

CPD said family planning policy should continue to allow people to decide whether, when and how many children they want, rather than seek a particular fertility target.

"Kailangan pa rin natin talaga na mag-family planning para 'yung mga gustong manganak, kung kailan nila gustong manganak, ay mangyayari at kung hindi nila gustong magkaanak ay mangyayari pa rin para sa kanila," Quiray said.

(We still need family planning so that those who want to have children can do so when they choose, while those who do not want children can also make that choice.)

Modern contraceptive use among Filipino women has continued to increase, according to Quiray, rising from 41.8% in 2022 to 44.5% in 2025. Use of traditional methods such as withdrawal and the calendar method fell from 16.5% to 14.1% over the same period.

PIDS has also found that falling fertility does not necessarily mean all Filipino couples want fewer children.

Poorer households continue to have more children than they intend in some cases, while wealthier couples may have fewer children than they want, pointing to different barriers including employment insecurity, housing, caregiving responsibilities and the cost of raising a family.

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