VIDEO: Is Labor’s stronghold in Melbourne’s west starting to crumble? - ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Is Labor’s stronghold in Melbourne’s west starting to crumble?

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR, REPORTER: In Melbourne's outer west, there’s anger.

DANIELLE DALE:  I'm fed up. Everyone's fed up. The feeling is not being heard and we're left out.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: After 12 years of Labor these voters have had enough.

KIRSTY JENNINGS:  I've seen them invest so much money in the east and the northeast and the west side has just been left for dead.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Melton, Australia's fastest growing region, and traditional Labor heartland, is now fair game at November's state election. 

Across Victoria, it's a three-way contest. The Coalition is leading in the polls, but One Nation is threatening to take votes from Liberal and Labor.

KRISTY MCSWEENEY, REDBRIDGE INSIGHTS ADVISOR:  Labor is at risk of losing seats in the west. It's entirely possible the Liberal Party can pick up two, if not more seats.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Labor holds 54 of the 88 Lower House seats in the Victorian parliament, the Coalition 29 and there are five on the cross bench.

Melton has been in Labor hands for more than 30 years. It's currently held by a margin of 4.6 percent. It forms Labor's so called Red Wall of 12 Lower House seats in the west.

KRISTY MCSWEENEY:  The west of Melbourne previously called Labor's red wall, it's falling.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: It’s an ordinary day for Kirsty Jennings, up before sunrise to beat the morning peak.  She's lived in Melton South for 17 years and has seen the population explode.

KIRSTY JENNINGS: There's not enough services that we have out here to be able to get people into the city either quickly or in a reasonable timeframe.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Despite living across the road from a train station Kirsty chooses to drive for up to an hour and a half, she says to avoid overcrowded and unreliable trains, but the roads aren't much better.

KIRSTY JENNINGS:  I'd like to introduce you to some lovely potholes at the start of the entrance here. 

We're on a two-lane highway and we've got hundreds of thousands of people trying to get just into Melbourne, which is only about 35 Ks away.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Further west in Darley, Danielle Dale is also up early. She catches the train to the city for work. But first she needs to get to the station and then it's a battle to secure a car park.

DANIELLE DALE:  I am driving to the Bacchus Marsh train station because it is my nearest train station. It takes roughly 15 minutes on a good day. 

So sometimes it takes a while to find a car spot. That's why I go on that side because I know there'll be some closer than here.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Bacchus Marsh station has only country trains that can't run through the city loop. In 2018 Labor promised it would upgrade the train system, but the first stage won’t be completed until next year. 

These trains are often packed, and it takes Danielle up to 50 minutes to get to Southern Cross station.

DANIELLE DALE:  It is really stressful. It's more so at trying to get home at night. It is consistently late every night. It's actually just a debacle.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Either by road or rail the daily commute is a challenge.

KIRSTY JENNINGS:  I have to plan my day to get to work earlier, try and beat that mega peak hour sessions. 

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Kirsty McSweeny, who is a former Liberal candidate and adviser and now with RedBridge polling says voters here are keen to send Labor a message over the lack of services that haven't kept pace with the population growth.

KRISTY MCSWEENEY: They are going to punish Labor for the broken promises, and that is a mix of migrant families who've bought house and land packages and never received the infrastructure they were promised to general traditional working-class voters who are really disgusted with Labor and the words lies, debt, corruption - that comes out significantly among those voters. 

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: But that anger may not translate into votes for One Nation.

KRISTY MCSWEENEY:  A lot of people are saying, "I'm starting to look at One Nation's policies for Victoria, and I can't see what they're going to do for Victoria.”

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: 7.30 contacted One Nation but didn't hear back. Kirsty and Danielle aren't convinced that One Nation is the answer in Melton.

KIRSTY JENNINGS:  Some things I do like about Pauline Henson, I like that she speaks her mind, but she does create the divide in some things. I suppose that comes down to race. We're a very multicultural country and I love that about Australia 

DANIELLE DALE:  One Nation isn't really something that I would consider even though that's what everybody's talking about.

I think just because Labor is so bad, that people are desperate and will vote her because they're just sick of Liberal and Labor altogether.

JESS WILSON, VICTORIAN OPPOSITION LEADER:  Now there's this sense of pessimism, this malaise over Melbourne and over Victoria, and I hear it from Victorians directly.

I want to bring hope back to Victoria. 

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Liberal leader Jess Wilson is out west in Cobblebank hoping to win over voters with her plan to introduce 25 hybrid train in her first term if elected.

JESS WILSON:  So we want to get you suburban trains here so we can make sure you get more seats and more capacity faster. 

JESS WILSON:  They're incredibly frustrated that they have been forgotten, that they've been promised things time and time again. An example of that is the Melton Hospital that was promised before the 2018 election, and seven years later we finally saw the sod being turned, 

VOX POP:  We are so happy for you to do this for us. 

BEN CARROLL, VICTORIAN PREMIER:  Thank you so much. 

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Ben Carroll has been Premier for just two months. His first act was to establish a royal commission into corruption within the construction sector which began today. He's been trying to differentiate himself from the previous Labor premiers. 

BEN CARROLL:  I will fight every day against the Liberal Party and One Nation coming together because that is what will happen in November if Labor is not successful. 

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR:  A lot of people in the west are saying that they have been completely ignored.  What do you say to them? 

BEN CARROLL:  I say, I'm one of you. I grew up under the flight path of Melbourne Airport. I grew up in Airport West. 

So I will have an unrelenting focus on the basics, making sure that the Melton Hospital that is getting well developed now isn't stopped by the Liberal Party and One Nation.  I will get on and invest in the Western Highway.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR:  Do you understand their frustration? 

BEN CARROLL:  I understand that we need to make sure that we're communicating as best as we can what we have achieved for Melbourne's western suburbs.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR:  Are you worried about the threat of One Nation? 

BEN CARROLL:  Look, One Nation terrifies me. To think what the Liberal Party and One Nation teaming together, they're about attacking working people. I'm about fighting for them.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Will the coalition need to rely on One Nation to form government?

JESS WILSON:  We're running to form majority government and we're doing this because Victoria is on its knees.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR: Would you be opposed to working with One Nation if you don't win a majority of seats?

And I say to Victorians, don't risk it at this election. Give the Liberals and Nationals your number one vote to ensure that we can change this government and we can fix this state.

KATHLEEN O'CONNOR:  The official campaign hasn’t started but the battle for votes has well and truly begun. 

For decades, Melbourne’s outer west has been a Labor stronghold – but after 12 years in government the polls are showing a shift away from Labor. 

This story by Kathleen O'Connor and Melissa Polimeni.