US withdrawal from Iraq

The security landscape of the Middle East is in a state of flux. The footprints of the lone superpower, the United States, are shrinking, and new characters are about to fill the vacuum. The scheduled withdrawal of American forces from Iraq could be a game-changer, and the prime beneficiary, of course, will be Iran, which has established its military superiority over its Arab neighbours as a result of its ongoing war with the US and Israel. Though the retreat of the Blue Stripes was ordained under the Biden administration, President Trump is keeping his word, as he believes in lessening America's overseas presence across the globe. This is going to be the second major US withdrawal from the region following its 2021 departure from Afghanistan. Since Washington was unable to prevail over the Taliban regime in Kabul or enforce the 2020 Doha Accord, Afghanistan is sliding into anarchy and has become a terror hub. Iraq is unlikely to be any different; the resulting void is feared to be filled by pro-Iran Shia militias, as well as remnants of the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. The fact that Syria has broken away and is no longer under Tehran's influence could be an added factor of instability. Multiple militant organisations operating freely in the Levant could turn Iraq into a bastion for their nefarious activities. Last but not least, with the Houthis on the rampage, the regional security dynamic is bound to become more complex as Iran attempts to make up for the loss of Hezbollah by funding and galvanising the Islamic resistance in Iraq. The voluntary withdrawal comes as an opportunity for the US to reflect on its obsessive overseas deployments. Having lost around 4,500 troops in Iraq over the last two decades, the heavy price Washington paid - particularly as its military bases were repeatedly targeted by Iran - serves as a moment for strategic recalculation. The US can be a great partner in institution-building and furthering peace, rather than balkanising the region into military alliances.