US Midterms: Rubio Weighs Leaving Trump Administration as Oil Price Slumps - THISDAYLIVE

United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is considering leaving President Donald Trump’s administration following the Republican Party’s crushing defeat in the midterm elections, as political uncertainty in Washington and prospects of a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran weigh on global oil prices.

People familiar with the matter said Rubio and his advisers were reviewing options for his political future, although he had yet to make a final decision on whether to resign from his positions as America’s top diplomat and national security adviser.According to Bloomberg, which first reported the development, Rubio had spoken with officials at the White House about stepping down but was asked to remain in the administration. There is, however, no timetable for any possible departure.The White House and State Department dismissed the report, describing it as false.Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs, Dylan Johnson, said, “This is complete and total fake news based on the word of anonymous sources, befitting a tabloid.”

Johnson added that Rubio had not discussed leaving his position and would continue serving in Trump’s administration.Similarly, White House spokesperson, Beni Rae Harmony, described the report as a fabricated story, insisting that Rubio remains committed to Trump and the Make America Great Again movement.Rubio’s reported consideration of an exit comes after Republicans suffered significant losses in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Democrats securing control of both chambers of Congress in a development that could constrain Trump’s legislative agenda and intensify investigations into his administration.

The electoral setback has also raised questions about the future of the administration’s foreign policy, particularly the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has generated domestic political pressure and uncertainty in international energy markets.A departure by Rubio before January could enable Trump to nominate a replacement before Democrats assume control of the Senate, potentially making confirmation easier than it would be under the new congressional arrangement.Democrats are expected to investigate several administration initiatives, including operations against alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea, in which Rubio was involved.

The former Florida senator has emerged as one of Trump’s most trusted officials, having transformed from a rival during the 2016 Republican presidential primaries into a key member of the president’s inner circle.Rubio and Vice President JD Vance have also frequently been mentioned as possible contenders to succeed Trump as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate in 2028.

However, his reported consideration of leaving the administration has raised questions about whether he wants to distance himself from the politically damaging Iran conflict and position himself for a future political comeback.Rubio has consistently defended the decision to launch military attacks against Iran, although he has also sought to maintain some distance from the conflict.

He has concentrated on implementing Trump’s Venezuela policy, including the operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and subsequent engagement with his successor, Delcy Rodriguez, over efforts to unlock the country’s oil reserves.He has also overseen increased economic pressure on Cuba as Washington seeks to weaken the Communist Party’s decades-long hold on power.

Some people close to Rubio reportedly believe he could return to the private sector and consider his political options after the 2028 election cycle. Others have suggested he may prefer to avoid a potentially divisive contest within the Republican Party, particularly if Vance decides to seek the party’s nomination.

Meanwhile, the consequences of the Republican defeat have extended beyond Washington, with international oil markets reacting to expectations that Trump could face pressure to reconsider his military strategy against Iran.Crude oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive day yesterday, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate extending losses amid growing expectations that the administration could pursue diplomatic options to end the conflict.

Brent crude futures fell by as much as 8.6 per cent to $94.66 per barrel, while US benchmark WTI dropped to $88.08, extending a four-day rout that reflected concerns about the potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Earlier trading data showed Brent futures down 97 cents, or 1.03 per cent, at $93.65 per barrel, while WTI declined $1.14, or 1.29 per cent, to $86.98.

The declines followed an over eight per cent plunge on Wednesday that pushed both benchmarks to their lowest levels since August 31.However, subsequent data from OilPrice.com showed some recovery, with Brent crude futures trading at $97.94, up 3.51 per cent, while WTI rose to $90.27, representing a 2.44 per cent increase. The S&P Energy Index, however, declined 4.77 per cent to 976.18.

Market analysts attributed the initial sell-off largely to political developments in the United States, particularly the Democratic victories in the midterm elections and the possibility that the Trump administration could come under pressure to end the war.Trump, in an interview with Fox News, attributed the Republican losses partly to rising petrol prices, saying: “I think it’s the gasoline price.”He had earlier told the Financial Times that there were no immediate plans to strike Iran.Vance also linked the Republican defeat to the conflict, writing on X, “The reason we lost is the war. Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”In a separate interview with CNN, the vice president said both he and Trump were optimistic about the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

“The president and I both feel really good about the prospect of potentially coming to a negotiated settlement,” he said.Rubio had similarly indicated on Sunday that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian conflict rather than continued military action.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to mediate negotiations between Washington and Tehran in an effort to prevent further escalation.Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed that a delegation from the Gulf country had held discussions in Tehran as part of efforts to reach an agreement.

Reports by Qatari news outlet Al-Jadeed suggested significant progress in the negotiations, including possible concessions by Iran on its nuclear programme and the release of frozen assets.However, a senior Iranian official swiftly dismissed the reports, contributing to a partial recovery in oil prices.In another development, Iran announced exemptions for some of its major trading partners from restrictions on shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Vice Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Ahmad Hayat-Moghaddam, told the Iranian Student’s News Agency that India, China, Iraq and Qatar had been exempted from the transit restrictions.“We have currently exempted India, China, Iraq and Qatar from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Ships from these countries pass freely,” Hayat-Moghaddam said.

He explained that the exemptions were based on mutual interests and specific considerations. He stated that India’s exemption was intended to facilitate medicine imports into Iran, while China’s was aimed at securing political support from Beijing.The development came amid mounting pressure on Iran’s oil export operations following the prolonged US naval blockade, while attacks on commercial vessels have continued to heighten security concerns across the Gulf.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported at least four attacks on commercial vessels since the beginning of the month across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.The Houthis also claimed to have targeted Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although Saudi authorities did not confirm the reported attack.

For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, the decline in international crude prices presents mixed implications for the economy.Lower crude prices could reduce Nigeria’s oil export earnings and government revenue, given the country’s heavy dependence on petroleum exports for foreign exchange and public financing.Crude oil remains a major source of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and accounts for a substantial proportion of government revenue. A sustained decline below $95 per barrel could narrow fiscal buffers, weaken external reserves and increase pressure on the naira.

However, cheaper crude and petroleum products in the international market could potentially provide some relief through lower domestic petrol and diesel prices, with possible positive implications for transportation costs and inflation.The outlook for oil prices remains uncertain, with developments in Washington and the outcome of Qatar-mediated negotiations expected to influence market direction.

A resumption of US military operations against Iran could trigger another surge in crude prices, potentially pushing benchmarks above $110 per barrel, while a successful diplomatic agreement could sustain downward pressure and keep prices below $90.

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