Trump’s Rally for Paxton May Help Talarico, Fox News Poll Suggests - Newsweek

Most Texan voters are either “extremely” or “very” concerned that Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general, is “too close to Donald Trump,” according to a new Fox News survey.

On Thursday, President Trump attended a rally in support of Paxton at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton along with retired basketball star Dennis Rodman. However, the Fox News poll suggests Paxton’s close alliance with Trump, as seen at Thursday’s rally, could be helping his Democratic opponent James Talarico.

Democrats hope to take control of the Senate in November, a move that would significantly impede Trump’s ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his second term. Winning a Texas Senate seat, which they last achieved in 1988, would be a major step towards this objective.

Newsweek contacted the Paxton and Talarico Senate campaigns for comment on Friday via email and telephone.

Fox News surveyed 1,203 Texas registered voters, of which 881 were classified as likely voters, between September 24 and 28 with a 2.5 percentage point margin of error.

The poll gave Talarico a 2-point lead, with 51 percent of the vote to 49 percent for Paxton, in the Senate contest, though this is within the margin of error.

According to the survey, Talarico has done a much better job of acquiring the backing of self-described Democrats than Paxton has for Republicans.

Overall, 99 percent of Democrats said they would back Talarico versus just 1 percent for Paxton. By contrast, only 90 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton, with 10 percent opting for Talarico.

Paxton’s difficulty was particularly pronounced with Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA, of whom 22 percent said they would vote for Talarico. By contrast, the poll showed he had the backing of 96 percent of MAGA Republicans, with only 4 percent going to Talarico.

Notably, the poll found 37 percent of voters were “extremely concerned,” and another 14 percent were “very concerned” that Paxton “is too close to Donald Trump. By contrast, 29 percent of respondents said they were “not at all concerned,” while another 20 percent answered, “not very concerned.”

Overall, once rounding was taken into account, 51 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned, while 48 percent were “not very” or “not at all” concerned and another 1 percent answered, “don’t know.”

Even among voters who identified as “non-MAGA” Republicans, 39 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned about Paxton’s relationship with Trump, while 61 percent were “not very” or “not at all” bothered.

By contrast, among voters identifying as “MAGA” Republicans, only 10 percent were “extremely” or “very” concerned, while 89 percent were “not at all” or “not very” concerned.

The survey also found 63 percent of Texan voters said Trump would be “extremely” or “very” important for their Senate vote, against 36 percent for “not very” or “not at all” important.

This matches the result of a Big Data Poll of 698 likely Texas voters conducted between September 24 and 26, which found Talarico had the support of 15 percent of 2024 Trump voters, while Paxton only had the backing of 4.2 percent of 2024 Kamala Harris voters.

During his speech in Denton, Trump described Paxton as “one of the most loyal people,” adding: “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the a** sometimes to be honest.”

Referring to Talarico, the president said: “To put a guy, a freak like that in there would be such a horror to your state, and such a horror to the country.

“We need the votes, and I’m here for that, and I think we’re going to win.”

On Wednesday, the New York Times published leaked audio which it said revealed Paxton telling conservative donors and lobbyists that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had damaged his campaign.

In the audio, someone asks, “Do you feel like he’s a little bit of a drag?” to which the man purported to be Paxton replies: “So to be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”

When approached for comment by The New York Times, Nick Maddux, a senior Paxton advisor, said: “This is more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist.”

At the convention, held in Dallas at the American Airlines Center on September 9 and 10, Trump backed Paxton while also mocking his dress sense and appearance.

The president said: “He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen, but you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America, and he deserves to be your next senator.”

Paxton beat incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in a May Texas Republican runoff with the backing of Trump.

The contest was bitter, with Cornyn branding his opponent “a known con man and a fraud,” and the senator has since said he won’t campaign for Paxton in November’s election.

Paxton was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in 2023 over allegations of abuse of public trust and unfitness for office, though he was found not guilty by the state Senate. He consistently denied wrongdoing during this process.

However, Talarico has also come under fire over controversial comments related to religion, including his 2021 argument that “God is nonbinary” and is “both Masculine and feminine, and everything in between.”

According to campaign proposals, Talarico supports an "AI Dividend" that would give Americans a share of the profits from artificial intelligence, while Paxton has called for restrictions on Chinese technology in U.S. data centers and stricter accountability measures for AI products that threaten children's safety. See how each sitting member scores on Newsweek's AI Scorecard.

Talarico, who supports legalizing and regulating marijuana for adults, has described Texas' restrictions as a "gift to the drug cartels," whereas Paxton has sued multiple cities over cannabis decriminalization measures, saying he will not "stand idly by" while local governments "violate Texas law and promote the use of illicit drugs."

Polling conducted over the past few weeks has given Talarico a narrow lead over Paxton, though often within the margin of error.

A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,128 Texas likely voters from 28-29 September put Talarico on 46 percent, one point ahead of Paxton’s 45 percent, with a three percentage point margin of error.

Separately, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll gave Talarico a 5-point lead, with 49 percent of the vote to Paxton’s 44 percent. This survey, of 1,007 likely voters over 19-22 September, had a 3.6 point margin of error.

As of October 2, the prediction market Polymarket gave Talarico a 62 percent chance of winning the seat, against 39 percent for Paxton.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Gray R. Thomas