Trump’s Next TACO Test Over Russia Comes With His Own Signature - Newsweek
The landmark sanctions and tariffs bill proposed by late Senator Lindsey Graham to ramp up economic pain on Russia will reach President Donald Trump’s desk this week after passing the U.S. House of Representatives with broad bipartisan support on Wednesday.
The White House has already said his advisers would recommend the president sign it. Now, the only question that remains is whether Trump will actually put it to good use.
The bill, officially titled the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026" in memory of the South Carolina Republican who proposed it almost 18 months ago, targets Russian banks, officials and Moscow's shadow fleet, while directing Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas. Supporters of the bill have been perfectly clear about whom they have in mind: China and India.
At first glance, the legislation appears to give the Trump administration sweeping powers to punish Russia and any country willing to keep money flowing into the Kremlin’s coffers. In reality, it will serve as a litmus test of Trump’s willingness to put the squeeze on Vladimir Putin.
The full text grants the White House power to apply tariffs of up to 500 percent on Russian goods, but with no minimum. Secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil can reach 100 percent, but Trump gets to decide the rate. And Section 115 stipulates that the president can waive any sanction, restriction, or duty if he certifies that doing so is in the "national interests of the United States."
In other words, Congress is putting a sledgehammer in Trump’s hands. Whether he swings it at Moscow’s biggest economic lifelines—or uses it to gently tap in a few nails—is almost entirely up to him.
We know Trump can talk the talk, but there’s plenty of precedent to be skeptical of the president’s ability to walk the walk on Russia.
In 2025, after a two-hour call with Putin on May 19 produced neither a ceasefire nor fresh U.S. sanctions, Britain and the European Union went ahead with new measures against Moscow without Washington. Five days later, Russia launched what was then the largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine. Trump said Putin had "gone absolutely CRAZY" and raised the prospect of additional sanctions.
Three days later, he backed down. "If I think I’m close to getting a deal, I don’t want to screw it up by doing that," he said. No new package followed.
Then came the ultimatums. In July, Trump gave Putin 50 days to make progress toward ending the war, and threatened to impose punishing secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. Two weeks later, he cut the deadline to just "10 or 12 days," saying there was "no reason in waiting."
When the deadline passed, Washington did impose a 25 percent tariff on India over oil purchases that lasted until February 2026, but China—the far bigger economic opponent and Moscow’s top customer—escaped punishment. Instead, Trump announced he’d be meeting Putin in Alaska. Following their get-together, the president said there was no immediate need to target Beijing and suggested he might reconsider in "two or three weeks."
And, in September, Trump declared that he was ready to impose "major sanctions" on Russia, called on NATO countries to stop buying Russian oil, and said the bloc should apply tariffs of 50 to 100 percent on China.
Two days later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supplied the caveat: Washington would not impose additional Russian-oil tariffs on China unless European countries imposed steep duties on China and India first. "We are not moving forward without the Europeans," he said.
You can see how Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong came up with the acronym TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out.
The Graham bill gives Trump his best chance yet to disprove that theory; it also leaves him with no excuse if he talks tough again and fails to follow through.
Slapping sanctions on an obscure Russian official is easy, as is blaming European allies for not doing enough. Now, Trump has all the levers he needs to turn the screw on his opposite number in Moscow, and we will soon see whether he has the stomach for doing so.
