Trump Cancels Kansas Rally as New Poll Shows Republican Trailing Democrat - Newsweek

President Donald Trump has canceled a planned rally in Kansas on Saturday, just days before Election Day.

The move comes as a new poll shows Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton holding a narrow four-point lead over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in a closely contested Senate race.

The cancellation was confirmed Thursday by Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party. Trump had been scheduled to speak at Salina Regional Airport at noon local time, but airport authorities cited scheduling conflicts as the reason for the cancellation.

The decision comes amid a competitive reelection race for Marshall, with polling showing Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, gaining ground in a state Trump carried by 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment Thursday.

A new CNN/SSRS poll, conducted October 20-26, found Hamilton leading Marshall by four percentage points among Kansas likely voters, with 49 percent supporting the Democrat and 45 percent backing the Republican incumbent.

The findings underscore the increasingly competitive nature of the race, which could have significant implications for control of the Senate after the November 3 midterm elections.

Other recent polls have also shown a close contest. A YouGov survey conducted September 24 to October 4 showed Hamilton leading Marshall by three points, while a separate GBAO poll conducted September 30 to October 4 for Hamilton's campaign found the Democrat ahead by five points.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 13-14, however, gave Marshall a one-point advantage, with 48 percent support compared with Hamilton's 47 percent.

The CNN/SSRS poll surveyed 838 likely voters in Kansas and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Because Hamilton's four-point lead falls within that margin, the survey does not establish a clear leader.

Trump's canceled appearance would have been his second rally in Kansas on Marshall's behalf this month.

The president campaigned for the senator in Park City, near Wichita, on October 19, while Vice President JD Vance has also made multiple appearances in support of the Republican, including rallies in the Kansas City area in September and in Topeka on Monday.

The planned Salina event was widely viewed as another opportunity for Trump to mobilize Republican voters and reinforce support for Marshall in the final stretch of the campaign.

The cancellation comes as Trump shifts toward virtual campaign events in the final days before the election.

The White House said Trump would hold more than 20 tele-rallies before Tuesday's election, while his planned appearance in Salina would instead take place virtually.

The contest has attracted national attention because of its potential implications for the balance of power in Washington.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, with the Democratic caucus including two independents. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber, requiring them to defend their own vulnerable seats while flipping multiple Republican-held contests.

Kansas was not initially considered one of the most obvious Democratic pickup opportunities. Trump's decisive victory in the state in 2024 appeared to give Republicans a strong electoral foundation.

But the Senate race has developed into a more difficult contest for Marshall, with polling suggesting that the incumbent's standing may be a greater factor than the state's underlying partisan preferences.

A CNN analysis of its latest polling found that most likely voters in Kansas viewed Marshall unfavorably. The survey also indicated that Hamilton was attracting support from approximately 12 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, an unusually broad level of crossover support for a Democratic candidate in the states examined.

Among Hamilton's supporters, 59 percent said their vote was motivated primarily by opposition to Marshall rather than support for the Democratic challenger. The findings suggest the race may be driven in large part by voters' assessments of the incumbent, rather than simply by traditional partisan loyalties.

However, the poll also found that at least one in eight likely voters in Kansas, Texas and Michigan could still change their minds. Among uncommitted voters in Kansas, at least six in 10 identified as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, leaving Marshall with a potential pool of voters who could return to the Republican incumbent before Election Day.

Hamilton's background as a Methodist megachurch pastor also distinguishes him from many Democratic Senate candidates. He considered running as an independent before securing the Democratic nomination, ultimately defeating Christy Davis, a former federal agriculture official, and Noah Taylor, an Army veteran, in the primary.

His campaign now faces the challenge of turning that competitiveness into enough votes to overcome the state's Republican advantage.

Kansas is one of many states where recent polling has given Democrats renewed hope of making gains in the Senate. Recent polling also found Democratic candidates leading in Michigan and Texas, while Maine remained closely contested.

In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. The result is notable in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades and that President Trump carried in 2024.

Michigan presents another potential Democratic opportunity. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. The shift comes after a contentious Democratic primary, with El-Sayed consolidating support within his party: 95 percent of Democratic likely voters now back him, compared with 90 percent in CNN's earlier survey. At the same time, views of Rogers have deteriorated. Half of likely voters now hold an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, up from 42 percent in early September.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent in another closely watched contest. Collins is the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state that voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election, making the race an important test of whether a long-serving incumbent can maintain support amid broader dissatisfaction with the Republican Party.

The polls show Democrats making inroads in traditionally Republican territory while established battlegrounds remain competitive. But polling leads are not guarantees, and the races remain open to late shifts.

This is breaking news, updates to follow.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Rhian Morgan.