The risks to Europe of an ‘angry duck’ Trump

GREETINGS from Berlin! Nick Vinocur here. Let’s dive in: 

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The United States attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island, even as President Donald Trump played down the possibility of a return to war with Iran after today’s midterm elections, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Associated Press is quoting a U.S. official saying the strikes targeted Iranian missile facilities used to launch attacks on U.S. assets.  

FOLLOW THE U.S. MIDTERMS WITH POLITICO: Track what’s happening from coast-to-coast and what it means for the next two years at POLITICO.com and in our new mobile app. Then tune in from 3 a.m. CET for POLITICO Elections Live, with Alex Burns, Jonathan Martin and Playbook co-authors Dasha Burns, Will Steakin and Adam Wren breaking down the results in a show built for people who want the story beyond the numbers. 

— The European Parliament’s far right and center right quietly increase cooperation. 

— The EU’s plans to stop more freezers being hacked. 

On today’s Brussels Playbook Podcast: Zoya and Kathryn unpack how Poland’s court showdown is uniting the nationalist right.

**A message from HEINEKEN: What does it take to build a more competitive Europe from the ground up? On 4 November, Beyond the Glass: Brewing Local Competitiveness will bring together policymakers, business and hospitality leaders to explore how long-term investment and strong local value chains can help Europe’s businesses and communities thrive.**

DON’T EXPECT TRUMP’S EMBRACE: Europe shouldn’t hold out for any major shifts in U.S. transatlantic policy after the midterm elections, senior EU, NATO and U.S. officials told Playbook. 

The warning comes as U.S. voters head to the polls today in an election that threatens President Donald Trump’s control of both the House and Senate — and could deliver a major rebuke to his leadership. 

Curb your enthusiasm: But even a Democratic win would be unlikely to change Washington’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, war in the Middle East, trade conflicts and future U.S. participation in NATO.

In fact, Trump may move further away from Europe if his Republican Party fares very poorly in the midterms, according to Phil Gordon, the former national security adviser to ex-Vice President Kamala Harris and assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs under former President Barack Obama.

Trump could concentrate on areas where he can flex his presidential muscle without fear of being blocked by Congress, particularly foreign policy,  Gordon said. “Even in the best-case scenario, I don’t think we should expect any major foreign policy changes.”

Government by decree: “[Trump] leads military force. He has control over tariffs and trade deals. He has the bully pulpit. Even if Democrats take both houses, he can veto bills,” Gordon said. 

Including on Ukraine: Trump justified a deal to purchase diesel fuel from Vladimir Putin as a bid to bring down U.S. fuel prices ahead of the election — but he may well dig in further. “Europeans have wanted to believe since Day 1 that Trump would come around” on Ukraine, “but the diesel thing is not some temporary exception to this policy. It is the policy, and the fact he’s getting increasingly angry is not going to help,” Gordon said.  

Midterm offensive: Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is warning that Russia is preparing a “massive attack” on Ukraine, under the cover of the distraction caused by the U.S. midterms. Overnight, U.S. mediators announced plans to sit down with representatives of Ukraine and Russia next week, in another bid to broker a deal.

Then there’s Iran, where Trump is threatening to resume strikes on nuclear sites after the election. “There’s certainly a possibility” of this, said Gordon, while adding that “it’s not a given.” 

Trade offers European one glimmer of hope. Midterm campaigns have heavily focused on cost-of-living concerns linked to inflation, which critics connect to Trump’s tariffs, along with the war on Iran. If Trump is dealt a severe blow at the ballot box, he may hesitate before slapping new tariffs on trading partners like the EU, according to Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade.   Ducks in a row: But a “lame duck” president could turn into an “angry duck” and Trump could opt to dig in his heels, Lange warned. 

Parliamentary diplomacy: MEPs also see a potential shift to the Democrats in the midterms as an opportunity to forge stronger ties with Congress, according to the chair of the Parliament’s U.S. delegation, Brando Benifei. 

The MEP said talks are underway to turn the Parliament–Congress dialogue, currently limited to a few meetings a year, into a permanent congressional structure, with its own EU delegation. Previous Democratic-led bills to establish this failed, but a Democratic House majority could revive the plan, deepening cooperation between the two sides of a relationship that “is already quite articulated,” Benifei said.  

The bottom line: The U.S. midterms will teach Europe a lot about America’s shifting political mood, and whether U.S. voters are preparing to reject Trumpism. But it won’t bring easy solutions to Europe’s transatlantic woes, as Jamie Dettmer’s analysis explains.

HOW TRUMP HURT THE REPUBLICANS: Republicans have been left scrambling to defend their congressional majorities in the face of a midterm shellacking, Jonathan Martin explains. As for what happens once the votes have been counted: expect the biggest fights to be inside each party once the bloodletting begins, John F. Harris says.

POLISH COURT STANDOFF: The battle over who rules Poland continues to be fought in front of the country’s top constitutional court in Warsaw, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk pushes to roll back changes made by his nationalist predecessor. And now, the European Parliament’s democracy and rule-of-law monitoring group will examine the clash, the office of Vice President Sophie Wilmès told Max Griera.

WHY EUROPE NEEDS FRONTIER AI MODEL: Europe risks falling into a “complete trap” if it focuses on industrial AI while leaving frontier models to the U.S. and China, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch told POLITICO’s Larissa Kögl. 

GETTING AROUND THE FIREWALL: The far-right Patriots for Europe is working to convert its growing cooperation on legislation with the center-right European People’s Party into votes for positions of power in Parliament’s January reshuffle, Max Griera reports.  

Weber’s red line: EPP chief Manfred Weber reiterated last week that his group must not hand the far right executive power, citing the German conservatives who enabled the rise of Adolph Hitler. But Weber has limited control, as MEPs vote for the Parliament’s vice presidencies by secret ballot — meaning the Patriots could win if enough EPP lawmakers back their candidates. 

A test run: In the last reshuffle, the Patriots fielded candidates they hoped would appeal to the EPP: former Frontex chief Fabrice Leggeri and Klára Dostálová, the former Renew member who leads the delegation of the Czech far-right ANO movement. Both lost but secured dozens of votes beyond the Europe of Sovereign Nations, the Patriots and European Conservatives and Reformists groups. 

Same playbook: The Patriots are likely to try again. Leggeri, their coordinator on Parliament’s civil liberties and home affairs committee, says cooperation with the EPP has improved. “I think that we have learned how to deal with each other … we have learned how to respect each other,” he told Playbook. Asked whether he would stand again, he said: “If the group wants me to, I’m available to be helpful.” 

Finding common ground: The committee is one of the areas where the EPP most often aligns with the Patriots. Leggeri said his group adjusts the wording of amendments to win EPP backing: “Sometimes, in the way we draft amendments, we know that some wordings are less acceptable than other kinds of wordings.” That cooperation could make more EPP lawmakers willing to back a Patriot candidate they consider acceptable. 

A high bar: The Patriots would still need roughly 100 of the EPP’s 185 lawmakers to break ranks. That will be difficult if Weber enforces discipline and the Socialists and Renew make the exclusion of the far right a condition of any midterm deal.

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Brussels is set to unveil the Quantum Act, which aims to push EU countries to work together on quantum computing … but what is that? Quantum computing is a technology that uses the rules of quantum physics to solve complex problems much faster than regular computers. Quantum is considered the next technological breakthrough that could revolutionize many industries, from drug discovery to the military. 

TALK TO PLAYBOOK: On the Brussels Playbook Podcast, Zoya asked whether you think the EU should regulate ultra-processed food. WhatsApp us on +32 491 050629 and listen from 7 a.m. to hear if we give you a shout-out. 

FROZEN FOOD AISLE IS BRUSSELS’ LATEST SECURITY THREAT: A spate of suspected cyberattacks that set supermarket fridge temperatures soaring has put Brussels on high alert — with the issue set to be discussed at the next meeting of the Security College, Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen told Gerardo Fortuna. 

What’s cooking? Hansen wants a comprehensive picture of how prepared Europe’s retailers should deal with such attacks: “The repeated cyberattacks on supermarkets are deeply concerning, causing economic losses for retailers and empty shelves for consumers.” 

A chilling attack: Supermarkets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands and Estonia yesterday reported refrigeration systems going haywire. In Belgium alone, around 60 supermarkets were affected, along with an IKEA in Mons.  

Better safe than … defrosted: Similar incidents in France last month involved hackers apparently tampering remotely with fridges’ defrosting systems. Officials in the Commission’s agriculture department have already met affected retailers to assess the damage.  

Hansen insists Europe’s food security isn’t at risk. But, he warned, the attacks are a deliberate attempt to disrupt supply chains and undermine public confidence. 

Not this Wednesday, though: The Security College — Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s special format for discussing strategic threats — will take up the issue at an upcoming meeting, with the date yet to be set. Wednesday’s regular College already has a stuffed menu: the 2027 work program, the enlargement package, the migration report, the education and skills package, and the sustainable tourism strategy. Even the Berlaymont can only digest so much. 

COST OF LIVING LOOMS LARGE IN US MIDTERMS: Affordability is consistently topping voters’ concerns, according to the results of The POLITICO Poll, which independent pollster PF Global carried out for POLITICO over the last weeks and months. In a survey carried out through Sunday, 53% of respondents listed it as one of the biggest issues in the lead-up to the U.S. midterms. 

Historically that might have given an edge to the Republican Party, which has long held the reputation of being the side that cuts costs and boosts the economy. But this time around, it’s the Democratic Party that could reap the benefits. In a survey this weekend, 46% of respondents said they’d trust the Democrats more to bring down costs, while just 29% said the same of the Republicans. 

BELGIAN POLITICAL CRISIS: Two and a half years of political instability has come to a head in Belgium, with Prime Minister Bart De Wever offering the king his resignation. La Libre takes a look back at the country’s fraught “Arizona” coalition.

DIPLOMATIC WALKOUT: The spouses of the ambassadors to Australia of Ukraine, Italy and Estonia have resigned from the Women’s International Club of Canberra, after it admitted Irina Petrakova, the wife of Russia’s ambassador, my Australian-based colleagues report.

VON DER LEYEN’S WIN-WIN PITCH: Von der Leyen takes the stage at the WinWin Brussels Summit this morning (see Agenda for times) to explain how Europe can become the best place for innovative companies to start, scale and lead. Expect mentions of single market, clean transition, AI and … an anecdote about scientists. She’ll attend fresh from last night’s dinner with cleantech CEOs, where she heard firsthand what businesses need to succeed. 

MODERN WARFARE DEMANDS NEW MEDICINE: Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s health system and the changing nature of warfare are forcing innovation on how to protect wounded soldiers on the battlefield.

LATVIAN AIRSPACE THREAT: The armed forces of Latvia on Monday briefly warned of a threat in the airspace affecting two regions of the country, Reuters reports. The military ​later said the identified object ​was believed to be on the ground near the Russian border.

WEATHER: Cloudy early, with sunny spells in the afternoon and a top temperature of 10C. 

IS YOUR BASEMENT THE NEXT ATLANTIS? Brussels Environment has updated its interactive flood-risk map, letting residents search their address to check exposure to heavy rain, overflowing waterways, sewer backflow and groundwater. According to the agency, one in three Brussels residents live in an area at risk, with basement sewer backflow a particular concern. 

ITALIAN DIASPORA TO THE BALLOT BOX: Calling all Italians in Brussels: You have just two days left to register for the renewal of the Comites, the volunteer committees representing Italians abroad, which help newcomers and organize cultural events. More than 6 million Italians live outside Italy, but at the last Comites elections in 2021, just 136,000 out of 5.6 million registered to vote — less than 3%. Why so? Perhaps because unlike most Italian elections, you have to sign up first. 

ROBIN HOOD RIDES INTO BRUSSELS: Steal from the rich, give to the poor — and perhaps win a raffle prize. Théâtre Royal du Parc hosts a charity preview of “Robin des Bois” tomorrow, ahead of the show’s run from Thursday through the end of the year. The classic tale gets a modern twist, tackling inequality, injustice and the power of sticking together. There’s also a tombola with more than 150 prizes, including four big ones. Robin Hood would approve. 

FIREFIGHTERS MARCH: After a summer marked by heatwaves with devastating wildfires, European firefighters are marching across Brussels today to protest gaps in their staffing and resources and a lack of support for job-related risks, such as cancer and PTSD. Their protest will take them from Brussels’ north station to Tour & Taxis, site of the Commission’s European Civil Protection Forum, from 10 a.m. 

Commuter alert: Due to the march, De Lijn is warning of diversions around Brussels-North and Tour & Taxis (routes 814 and R14) from roughly 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. No disruption on STIB/MIVB lines has been announced so far. 

Berlin: Germany’s governing coalition is set to submit a motion to the Bundestag for €200 million in winter aid for Ukraine.

Paris: President Emmanuel Macron‘s inner circle is “watching closely” developments in the U.S., with one eye firmly on Trump’s reactions if the midterms don’t go his way.

Madrid: Transport Minister Óscar Puente is set to appear before Congress to answer questions on the Urda train disaster. It won’t be a smooth ride.

London: Prime Minister Andy Burnham is in Antigua today, managing two political storms, largely of his own making.

Read more from our Playbook family: Washington … Ottawa … Canberra.  

**Europe and Canada are strengthening ties - but what comes next? Join POLITICO’s policy reporters and editors this Wednesday, Nov. 4 at 3 p.m. CET, for an exclusive online Pro Briefing unpacking the summit’s key outcomes and the implications for Europe’s strategic autonomy. Register now.**

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a keynote at the WinWin Brussels Summit at 10 a.m. (view live here). Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera chairs a high-level business roundtable at the event; Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen delivers a keynote at a roundtable with European founders and investors and meets Bolt founder and CEO Markus Villig. The summit runs from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. 

— Ribera presents European Trade Union Confederation General Secretary Esther Lynch at the Nueva Economía Forum in Brussels. 

— High-Level Geopolitical Dialogue at the European Parliament. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, International Partnerships Commissioner Jozef Síkela and Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica are among those participating. — NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte receives Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama at NATO headquarters in Brussels. — Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius delivers a keynote at the Berlin Security Conference and participates in a panel on security; attends a ceremony in Vilnius marking the centenary of former Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus. — Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen and Executive Vice President Raffaele Fitto take part in European Parliament Budgetary Control Committee hearings on the 2025 EU budget discharge, including cohesion, resilience and values. — European Parliament President Roberta Metsola receives Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at 10:45 a.m. — Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib participates in the Civil Protection Forum in Brussels, speaks at a plenary on Union preparedness and opens a ceremony marking the 25th anniversary of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism at 9:30 a.m. (view live here). She also meets firefighters’ trade union representatives. — Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque speaks at the Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid at 10 a.m. and meets Banco Santander Executive Chair Ana Botín and ECB Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery. — Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall visits IKEA of Sweden in Älmhult. 

— Youth Commissioner Glenn Micallef speaks at events on youth priorities and youth and reconciliation as drivers of EU integration in the Western Balkans. 

— POLITICO’s Competitive Germany Summit takes place in Berlin.

Former Belgian PM Alexander De Croo; MEPs Delara Burkhardt and Loránt Vincze; EU Scream’s James Kanter; Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and former Finnish PM Antti Rinne; Friends of Europe’s Geert Cami; Aleksander Arsenovič, mayor of Maribor, in Slovenia; ICP Asset Management’s Yngve Slyngstad, POLITICO 28 alum; Tara Varma from the German Marshall Fund of the United States. 

Playbook is brought to you by POLITICO’s EU Politics team: Gerardo Fortuna, Nicholas Vinocur, Gabriel Gavin, Zoya Sheftalovich, Max Griera, Mari Eccles, Hanne Cokelaere, Lucia Mackenzie, Gregorio Sorgi and Sebastian Starcevic. And: reporters Milena Wälde and Daria Zakharova, editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.

**A message from HEINEKEN: Europe’s competitiveness not only depends on emerging industries and innovation hubs, but also on the farms, breweries, supply chains, cafés, pubs and restaurants rooted in communities across the continent. At Beyond the Glass: Brewing Local Competitiveness on 4 November, HEINEKEN and POLITICO will bring together HEINEKEN Europe President Glenn Caton, MEP Tomáš Zdechovský, Sybren Fennema of Steward Redqueen and hospitality entrepreneur Pedro Ruiz Ocejo to discuss what it takes to support local businesses and strengthen Europe's competitiveness. Moderated by POLITICO’s Julia Wehrle, the discussion will examine what businesses need to keep investing, how hospitality contributes to prosperity and social connection, and how policymakers and industry can create practical, responsible conditions for long-term growth.**

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