The polls warned Trump for four years. He ignored them | Opinion - USA Today
Election night was a long time coming for President Donald Trump. Ever since he launched his comeback four years ago, Trump has run on instinct and whatever courtiers and hangers-on whisper in his ear, ignoring public opinion. That got him back to the White House – or, rather, Democratic Party incompetence did.
No politician can flout public opinion for long without losing. And since the summer of 2022, the public has been saying loud and clear that inflation is its top concern – and it's not even close. Four years of weekly YouGov polling tells the tale.
When Trump announced he was running again, inflation was the top issue, with 63% calling it “very important” – the highest of any issue.
Fast-forward to spring 2024: Inflation still led, 11 percentage points ahead of immigration, with 77% calling inflation “very important.” That July, the gap over immigration had grown to 12 points, with “very important” holding at 77%.
After Trump won reelection, concern only grew. In polling after his inauguration in January 2025, inflation led health care by 12 points, with 80% calling inflation “very important.”
As the Iran war started Feb. 28, inflation led jobs and the economy by 8 points. And on the eve of the election, voters had had enough: Inflation led jobs and the economy by 19 points and immigration by 23. Independents trusted Democrats over Republicans on inflation by 15 points.
Was Trump just catering to his base when he made illegal immigration his focus? Not exactly.
Republican voters have consistently ranked immigration higher than Democrats and independents do, but even they put inflation first. Four months after Trump announced in 2022 that he was running for reelection, inflation led immigration among Republicans by 26 points. By his nomination in 2024, the gap was 3 points, and by the Iran war, 15.
Instead of listening to voters, Trump plotted a different path. He pushed up tariffs across the board, promising to narrow the trade deficit and create jobs. Jobs are a real public concern, but when voters are asked to choose, inflation always wins. In a December 2022 YouGov poll, voters called inflation a more important problem than unemployment, 53% to 7%. This February, it was 35% to 6%.
Inflation hits everybody, while new jobs at an Iowa steel mill benefit just a few.
On election eve, Trump's net approval on inflation in the RealClearPolitics average stood at an incredible negative 43 points. It's astonishing that anyone in the Republican Party thought they could have a decent night.
Closely tied to inflation is the rocketing cost of health care and health insurance, another problem Trump ignored.
With little media attention, millions of Americans got clobbered by much higher premiums announced in October to take effect in 2027. In several of the polls cited above, health care ranked anywhere from the second to fourth most important issue.
Sure, Trump cut a couple of deals for cheaper drugs, but that barely scratches the surface of a $5 trillion health care system with massive administrative bloat, uncapped liability and almost no price transparency – problems Trump and the GOP did little to fix.
But that’s how Trump handles complex policy problems: He nibbles around the edges, a deal here and a deal there. A couple of tankers of Russian diesel and a cargo of frozen ground beef won’t fix inflation any more than discount drug coupons will tame health care costs. It’s like replacing the gold faucets in Trump Tower while the foundation crumbles.
Failing on the big issues leaves you little leeway on anything else. And with Trump, there’s always something else. Whining about the Kennedy Center’s name, fighting to build a new ballroom, stonewalling on the Epstein files and the endless personal feuds only frustrate a public that wonders why Trump won’t put his energy toward the real problems facing everyday Americans.
Trump isn't going to change. The day after the midterm elections, he spent nearly 20 minutes talking about his precious ballroom. But Republicans and conservatives need to reckon with the fact that pursuing personal obsessions and hobbyhorses won't work if you don't address voters' concerns. Screaming "socialism" doesn't work when you fail at the job.
And one more thing for Trump and the GOP: Stop complaining about the polls. They're right more often than you are.
Keith Naughton is a former campaign consultant and cofounder of the public affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies. Find him on his Substack at “Betting On Politics.”
