The influence of Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh

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Moradabad: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supporters during a public meeting addressed by party's Chief Mayawati ahead of Lok Sabha polls, in Moradabad, Monday, April 15, 2024.

More than six months ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, political parties are already looking for issues that can help them mobilise voters. The Congress rally addressed by Mallikarjun Kharge at the Ramlila Ground in Haldwani, and the puja that was performed by some people afterwards, which has been described as a shuddhikaran (purification) puja, has emerged as one such issue that the Congress is seeking to capitalise on. Though the party knows that its Dalit support in the State is minuscule, it is trying to expand its appeal among Dalit communities.

For Uttar Pradesh, however, the larger question is not simply whether political parties will try to mobilise Dalit voters — they certainly will — but how much of the Dalit vote remains transferable, and which party or alliance can attract it in big numbers to make a difference in the 2027 Assembly election?

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had remained the most popular choice among the Dalit voters, though more so among Jatavs and slightly less so among non-Jatav Dalits. Over the years, a large number of Jatavs have voted for the BSP; however, some decline is visible in recent elections. When the BSP came to power in the State in the Assembly elections held in 2007, 86% of the Jatavs voted for the BSP while only 54% of non-Jatav Dalits voted for it. In the last Assembly elections held in 2022, this figure dropped to 65% among Jatavs, while its support among non-Jatav Dalits declined to 27%. 

The BSP’s hold on the Dalit vote has weakened over the years. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been able to make noticeable inroads among this group, though these gains are still not sizable enough.

The pattern becomes even more striking when one looks into the voting pattern of Jatavs and non-Jatav Dalits separately.

As showin in the table below, the support for the BJP/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) among Jatavs increased from just 3% in 2002 to about 20% in the Assembly elections held in 2022, while the BSP’s support among Jatavs declined from 76% in 2002 to 65% in 2022.

As shown in the table below, among non-Jatav Dalits, the shift is noticeably sharper. Here, the BJP/NDA support increased from 12% in 2002 to 40% in 2022, while the BSP’s support fell from 45% to 27% over the same period.

The data clearly suggest that the weakening of the BSP is not a mere fragmentation of the Dalit vote; rather, much of the vote that has moved away from the BSP has gone to the BJP, especially among non-Jatav Dalits.

Between 2002 and 2022, support for the BJP/NDA among non-Jatav Dalits has increased by 28 percentage points, compared to a 17-point increase among Jatavs.

The weakening of the BSP’s hold is also reflected in its overall decline in Uttar Pradesh. The party’s vote share declined from 30.4% in 2007 to 12.8% in 2022.

Over the same period, the BJP/NDA’s vote share increased from 18.5% to 43.8%, while the Samajwadi Party (SP)/SP+ (plus means allies) also increased its vote share from 25.4% to 36.3%. The BSP’s overall vote share fell sharply, but both the BJP+ and SP+ have expanded their bases.

The Congress’s support amongst Dalit voters is extremely low, as it is among many other communities, but the party does not want to lose any chance and sees the Ramlila Ground incident as an opportunity to bring sections of Dalit voters back into its fold. It is important to note that the Congress has failed to secure considerable Dalit support, be it among Jatavs or non-Jatav Dalits. Its vote share has remained in the single digits among both groups, with the exception of the 2012 Assembly elections, when the Congress secured 16% of the non-Jatav Dalit vote. Even in the 2012 elections, Congress’s gain among non-Jatav Dalits did not translate into a durable shift in its favour. By 2022, its support among this group had fallen back to just 4%.

While the Congress continues to make efforts to regain its Dalit support from the BSP, available data, however, suggest that Congress faces a difficult task. The weakening of the BSP has not, so far, translated into a significant recovery for the party among either Jatavs or non-Jatav Dalits.

Elections are due in early 2027, and parties will continue trying to mobilise Dalits as well as other caste communities. Only the results will indicate which party manages to successfully mobilise Dalit voters. But the data already provide an important indication — that the Dalit vote remains electorally important, but it is no longer tied firmly to one party as it once was. The weakening of the BSP does not mean that Dalit voters have stopped having clear political preferences. Rather, the data suggest that the BJP has gained significantly from the BSP’s decline, particularly among non-Jatav Dalits, while the SP has also retained a meaningful share of Dalit support. The Congress, however, has so far failed to emerge as a significant beneficiary of this shift.

Given the sizable share of Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh, their preferences are likely to remain important to the outcome of the 2027 Assembly election. The key question is therefore not whether the Dalit vote matters, but how transferable that vote has become and whether any party can consolidate support across Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits.

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