Super El Nino could lead to over 4.5 lakh global deaths in 6 months: Report

The developing El Nino could claim an estimated 4,51,000 additional lives from extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, with the Global South expected to face the majority of the consequential number of heat-related deaths globally, according to a new estimation report by Climate Impact Lab.

Climate Impact Lab is a research collaboration that combines climate science, economics and data analysis to study how climate change and extreme weather affect people, economies and communities around the world. People walk with their faces covered to protect themselves from the heatwave. (Photo: PTI)

The estimate is not a prediction of deaths already recorded, but represents additional heat-related mortality compared with what researchers would expect in an average year, using 1996–2025 as the baseline.GLOBAL SOUTH FACING BIG TOLL

The projected burden is concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South.

The Sahel region alone is projected to see 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together could see 19,400 additional deaths, while Indonesia is projected to record 19,300. (Source: Climate Impact Lab)

Brazil follows with 13,300, while India’s estimate stands at 15,800, according to the report.

The Climate Impact Lab also noted that the estimates could help governments target measures such as heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration facilities, protection for outdoor workers and stronger health-system capacity.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on September 3 that the event was firmly established and expected to strengthen further, with its intensity forecast to peak around November-December. Residents sleep on Versova Beach amid intense heatwave and frequent power outages, in Mumbai. (Photo: PTI)

WMO also put the likelihood of El Nino persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.

A recent assessment of the situation by the US's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa)showed sea-surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region 1.8°C above normal, while the eastern equatorial Pacific had anomalies exceeding 3°C.

The agency gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.

"Looking beyond the current 6-month forecast window, which runs through February 2027," authors of the report wrote, "we anticipate that key areas in the northern hemisphere, such as India and Pakistan, will see heat-related deaths continue to rise into their summer."  A woman covers her child amid a heatwave on a summer day, in Varanasi. (Photo: PTI)

Meanwhile, the symptoms of El Nino's impacts are already showing up across the world.

August 2026 was the warmest August on record and tied with July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, with a global average surface-air temperature of 16.96°C.

The month was 1.65°C above the estimated 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.

Copernicus said the record warmth reflected both long-term global warming and rapidly developing El Nino conditions.

The Climate Impact Lab describes the current event as a “postcard from the future,” because the temperatures expected over the coming months resemble conditions climate models project for roughly two decades from now.

The analysis also warns that heat-related deaths are likely to continue rising into 2027, particularly as India and other countries in the region enter the next summer.- EndsPublished By: Aryan Published On: Sep 23, 2026 11:13 IST