Russia-NATO tensions: Why Poland warned of ‘hybrid’ attacks, Macron raised alarm
European leaders have stepped up warnings about Russia’s military and hybrid activities, with Poland saying Moscow could be preparing drone or missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine, while France announced plans to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday that intelligence assessments indicated Russia was planning possible “hybrid” attacks involving drones and missiles against European countries, including Poland. He warned that Moscow could try to make any such strike appear accidental to test NATO’s willingness to respond.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” news agency Associated Press quoted Tusk as saying in Poland’s parliament.
“The official narration will be that it’s an accident and there is no reason for NATO to think about a response,” he said.
Tusk said Russia could use attacks that stop short of an overt declaration of war to weaken NATO’s cohesion and test how the alliance responds.
He said the intelligence warning had become increasingly specific, drawing on information from NATO, Ukrainian and US intelligence agencies, including the CIA. Russia has not publicly confirmed the allegations.
Tusk also pointed to the growing use of jet-powered drones, saying they fly higher and faster and can, therefore, be more difficult for air-defence systems to detect before they reach their targets.
According to Tusk, Russia is also focusing on border crossings between Ukraine and its European neighbours in an effort to disrupt supply lines supporting Kyiv. He said four such incidents had occurred along Poland’s border with Ukraine in the previous week, with other incidents reported along Ukraine’s border with Moldova.
Tusk said Russia’s objective was to damage Ukraine’s economy and logistics and predicted attacks of “very high frequency and intensity” against six major Ukrainian cities in the near future.
He also said Moscow was not currently prepared for peace talks without what he described as the “total capitulation of Ukraine”, and argued that Russia believed the coming winter could be particularly difficult for Kyiv.
Poland provided additional assistance to Ukraine last winter after Russian attacks damaged its energy infrastructure. Tusk warned that damage to border crossings could make it harder for Warsaw to deliver similar assistance this year.
Tusk announced that he would travel to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and discuss countering newer types of drones and additional sanctions against Russia.
The warning from Warsaw came as French President Emmanuel Macron said Russia’s hybrid campaign against Europe and France had intensified. Macron said he had ordered his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure, including sensitive defence-industry sites, from drone and cyberattacks.
“In recent weeks, the threat — particularly the Russian hybrid threat — facing Europeans and France has intensified,” Macron said after meeting political party leaders in Paris.
🔴 “La menace hybride russe à l’égard des Européens et de la France s’est intensifiée”, déclare Emmanuel Macron dans son discours à l’Élysée, avant d’ajouter : “La nature de l’agressivité russe en Europe change”. #canal16 pic.twitter.com/4BciLct8TC
He accused Moscow of trying to intimidate European countries and weaken their support for Ukraine.
“The result will be the opposite,” Macron said. “We are not intimidated, because we know that our security today and tomorrow is at stake in Ukraine.”
The European Union’s definition of hybrid activity includes sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and interference in democratic processes, alongside other forms of pressure.
Russia has rejected European allegations of hybrid attacks, describing them as baseless and the product of what it calls anti-Russian hysteria, news agency Reuters reported.
Macron cited an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport in Germany in August, which the German government concluded was linked to Moscow, as an example of what he described as the changing nature of Russian aggression.
The reference comes amid a broader series of European warnings about suspected sabotage, cyber operations and drone incidents linked by some governments to Russia.
Those allegations remain contested, with Moscow denying involvement.
The warnings come at a sensitive moment for European security, as the United States is reviewing its military deployment across the continent.
The Pentagon’s review, announced by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in June, is examining options for the US military presence in Europe as Washington presses European allies to assume greater responsibility for their own defence. NATO’s top commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, participated in a briefing on the review on Friday.
Al Jazeera, citing US media reports, said one option under consideration could involve withdrawing about one-third of the roughly 68,000 US troops in Europe, while another scenario could involve the withdrawal of about 40,000 troops and military equipment. These are options under consideration, not an announced US decision.
The US review adds another layer to European security planning as countries on NATO’s eastern flank prepare for possible spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that “major progress” was being made towards establishing a permanent US Army base in Poland. Trump said the location would be announced soon if the plan goes ahead. Poland has for years sought a permanent US military presence as a security guarantee against Russia.
The development illustrates the competing trends within European security: Poland is seeking a stronger US presence as it faces heightened concerns about Russia, while Washington is reviewing the size and deployment of its military footprint across Europe.
