Republicans could lose this Canada-crazy district for the first time in almost 100 years - National Post
Copy URL Facebook Linked In X (Twitter) Loading account options Sign In Manage Account Close account menu Sign Out People fill out their ballot on Election Day during the midterm elections at St. Patrick Catholic Parish in White Lake, Michigan on November 3, 2026. (JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP via Getty Images) By Jack Rayner November 3, 2026 at 1:16 p.m. Last Updated: November 3, 2026 at 3:23 p.m. OTTAWA — Michigan’s 4th Congressional District hasn’t gone blue in almost 100 years, but House of Representatives seat is now at the centre of a neck-and-neck battle between the two major parties.
The district has been reliably Republican for a long time — a very long time.
The last time Michigan’s 4th district went to the Democrats, Franklin D. Roosevelt was in his first term and the world was just getting used to the invention sweeping the globe — sliced bread, which had hit the shelves only four years prior.
The congressional district that contains Kalamazoo lies in the state’s southwestern corner. It began to show signs of instability in May, when polls started showing strong Democratic support. That momentum seems to have carried through to September polls.
In May, a survey by the polling firm GBAO found that Democratic candidate Sean McCann was up three points, and another poll in September found McCann leading by one percentage point.
One issue dogging the Republican nominee, Bill Huizenga, is that tariffs on Canadian goods have become deeply unpopular with the electorate.
In a poll by WDIV/Detroit News that asked Michigan voters about various topics in the 2026 general election, 64.2 per cent of Michiganders opposed the American tariffs on Canada, and in election where affordability is at the top of the 70.5 per cent of respondents opposed the new tariffs.
The district is also home to the Canadiana Fest and CAN/AM Peace Jam, a festival with events that celebrate Canadian culture and heritage, including an international poutine contest.
“We host a poutine competition every year with numerous competitors. But, you know, America is a place of invention and poutine is not going to be a stranger to that,” said organizer Channon Mondoux.
She also has deeper concerns about the rift between the two countries, saying that the tariffs have wounded local industries.
“It is a deep concern because not just philosophically, but financially, you know … The auto industry is particularly affected by it because of the aluminum tariffs,” she said.
Western Michigan Republicans have historically been fiscally prudent and are rejecting the Republican MAGA movement. Martin Hershock, a professor of history at the University of Michigan-Dearborn.
Hershock says changing demographics are another major factor at play.
“West Michigan is changing in some significant ways so that even areas like Grand Rapids that traditionally have been fairly conservative are attracting more young people and highly educated folks and they tend to vote more progressive in terms of their proclivities rather than traditional conservative, which is what most of that district has traditionally been very bedrock Republican,” he said.
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