RAF Fairford Terror Plot: 6 Unanswered Questions - Newsweek

The release of five men arrested near a British air base used by the United States military has prompted questions and speculation over a counterterrorism investigation which has been linked to foreign adversaries, including Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the incident by RAF Fairford, in the village of Whelford, Gloucestershire, “clearly involves the hands ‌of a foreign actor” without providing evidence.

The site is used by American bombers, including during the war in Iran launched by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year, but Tehran has denied any connection to the incident, saying that accusations of involvement are “fabricated speculations.”

Local politicians have expressed concern about the messaging around the investigation, and residents and analysts have claimed the site was already on high alert before Sunday's arrests.

"If a foreign link is confirmed in the coming days, it would fit a pattern we've already seen in London and elsewhere," Kathryn Raines, a threat intelligence expert from security firm Flashpoint, told Newsweek.

Gloucestershire Police were tipped off at around 12:45 a.m. Sunday about suspicious vehicles near RAF Fairford, an air base used by the U.S. military for decades. Armed officers arrested five men at the scene on suspicion of offenses under the Explosives Act and later, preparation of a terrorist act under Section 5 of the Terrorism Act.

Under the United Kingdom's Terrorism Act, suspects can be detained for 48 hours without charge, and officers can apply for an extension for up to 14 days. But Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor said that the suspects were released on police bail on Monday afternoon and would be subject to stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others.

"They absolutely remain under investigation as we explore multiple lines of enquiry," Taylor said. "This does not mean the investigation is over."

Taylor reiterated that the decision to release the suspects on bail in an updated press release Tuesday, saying: "They remain under investigation and must adhere to strict conditions while we continue our work. The safety of the public is at the forefront of our investigative decision making, and this was certainly the case yesterday.

"I understand why this development will have come as a surprise to many, but I’d like to reiterate that it was an investigative decision, and one which is grounded in experience and careful consideration of policing powers."

Trump questioned this move, saying "we would not have released them." Rubio told Fox News that people were “disturbed that some of these people have been released on bail."

Former National Counter Terrorism coordinator Nick Aldworth told BBC Radio Wiltshire on Tuesday that the decision to bail the suspects after only 36 hours would not have been made lightly.

He said that "if somebody is entitled to bail, they will get bail. If they’re not, they won’t."

The person who informed police has been described as a female farmer from Whelford in her 50s who did not want to be named for her own safety. She said she had been traveling home from a party with her husband and an employee when they spotted the vehicles parked in a “really strange formation,” the U.K's Press Association reported.

She said she couldn't drive between the vehicles or enter the farm driveway, so she called the number on the side of one of the vehicles, all of which were empty.

After dropping off their employee, the woman and her husband returned to the scene and saw a group of men "panicking" at their car lights on full beam. Some ran into the field while others headed toward the next village, Kempsford.

She told the BBC's Today program she got no answer when she called the Ministry of Defence police at RAF Fairford but then rang 999 at 1:36 a.m. and "within 10 minutes the village was full of armed police."

Despite five arrests, the farmer said she saw as many as 10 people with their faces covered. “The strange thing is, there was no kind of follow-up," she added, "the police didn’t ring me."

The three white vans the farmer described have also been the subject of speculation. An image confirmed by BBC Verify shows a red logo on one vehicle with the words "Fuel 2You" and a cellphone number next to it.

The BBC said that the number went to an automated voice message system. There is no evidence that it is a legitimate company operating in the U.K. or a real brand name.

Army explosive ordnance disposal specialists used a remotely operated robot to examine the vehicles, according to reports. The machine has been identified as an L3Harris T7, although this has not been officially confirmed.

"Those vehicles have been subject to extensive examination, with the support of military assets and forensic experts, and we can confirm that no improvised explosive devices were found," Taylor said in the updated press release Tuesday, adding that "a quantity of petrol was recovered."

Taylor said that investigators also completed their searches of properties in London in connection with the investigation. He said that they were hoping to clear their crews from RAF Fairford by tomorrow, noting: "This will be an important step towards restoring normality for the local community."

Taylor's updated statement Tuesday said that intelligence responded "due to a range of information received, including a call from a member of the public about several vehicles acting suspiciously close to RAF Fairford."

His previous statement had suggested the immediate response followed a tip-off from the farmer, rather than an intelligence-led operation.

Trump had criticized former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not participating in the Iran war, but the U.K. did later allow the U.S. military to use British bases. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) publicly declared RAF Fairford a "legitimate target" on July 23, and Raines from Flashpoint said that announcement spread across hundreds of posts in Persian-language Telegram channels within hours.

"Western and pro-Iran channels alike have been posting B-1B takeoffs from Fairford almost in real time, including on September 13 and 20," she said, "when a base shows up in that kind of chatter, it's squarely in the frame."

Raines also said that the base appears to have been on high alert before the arrests, with open-source accounts reporting that Fairford had moved to FPCON Delta, the highest U.S. military Force Protection condition, at 8:45 p.m. on Friday.

Trump's comments on Sunday that the suspects had been "under view" for some time suggested cooperation between the U.K. and the U.S., and that their capture was the culmination of an ongoing operation between the countries.

This clashes with the official Counter Terrorism Policing account that the incident began when a member of the public alerted authorities to suspicious vehicles. The farmer's account also points toward a chance encounter with the suspects as key to raising the alarm.

Taylor did not specify the men were already under surveillance.

Meanwhile, Chris Phillips, former head of the U.K.'s National Counter Terrorism Security Office, told Newsweek on Monday that it was unlikely that British police would have allowed a group to put together a bomb and take it to the site.

"I think it's unlikely they were under tight surveillance," Phillips said.

Raines said that within hours of the arrests, pro-regime Persian-language Telegram channels were describing the incident as a U.S. "false flag" event to draw the U.K. into the war.

"Western fringe communities were pushing the same claim at the same time," she said. "Whatever the investigation ultimately concludes, a competing narrative is already circulating, and that's going to muddy the counterterrorism angle."

RAF Fairford is the headquarters for the U.S. 501st Combat Support Wing and the 420th Air Base Squadron.

It is one of around a dozen bases around the U.K. used by the U.S. military, and there are reports that security has been heightened at these installations in Britain, although there is no public confirmation that every RAF base has been placed on a heightened alert.

A U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson told Newsweek in a statement, "For operational security reasons we will not discuss specific force protection measures," but U.S. European Command would take appropriate actions to ensure the safety and security of U.S. service members, civilians, contractors, and their families in Europe.

"We constantly assess a variety of factors that determine what measures we institute or modify to protect our installations, our people and their families," the statement said.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Sam Wilson.