Petrol Imports Drop 29% as Dangote Supplies Rise to 71% - THISDAYLIVE

Domestic petrol inflow increases 39% to 35.9m litres/day 

PMS consumption falls 14% to 41.5m litres daily despite 50.5m litres daily receipts

Nigeria’s petrol supply structure shifted sharply towards domestic refining in August, with locally refined Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) accounting for 71.1 per cent of total daily receipts, while imports fell to 28.9 per cent.

According to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), domestic PMS receipts rose by 39 per cent from 25.8 million litres per day in July to 35.9 million litres per day in August, while imports declined by 26 per cent from 19.7 million litres daily to 14.6 million litres daily.

Overall, petrol receipts increased 11 per cent from 45.5 million litres per day in July to 50.5 million litres per day in August, indicating that the rise in domestic refining more than offset the reduction in imported volumes. 

The August figure represented a major shift from the previous month when domestic supply accounted for about 56.7 per cent of total PMS receipts, compared with 43.3 per cent from imports.

The NMDPRA’s 13-month PMS supply data further showed that the August domestic refinery inflow of 35.9 million litres per day was significantly above the 13-month domestic average of 29.7 million litres per day, while imports at 14.6 million litres daily were below the 13-month import average of 20.6 million litres per day.

The data also showed that the Dangote Refinery was responsible for all the PMS received from domestic refineries during the month.

According to the regulator, the refinery produced an average 41.94 million litres of PMS daily in August, of which 35.87 million litres per day were recorded as domestic receipts, while 9.73 million litres per day were exported. Its average capacity utilisation was put at 105.21 per cent. 

Against total domestic refinery PMS receipts of 35.9 million litres daily, Dangote’s 35.87 million litres daily domestic receipt amounted to about 99.9 per cent of the entire domestic refinery inflow.

The development represented a substantial change in the country’s petrol supply mix, coming alongside a corresponding reduction in dependence on overseas supplies. The NMDPRA data showed that oil marketers and NNPC imports dropped from 19.7 million litres per day in July to 14.6 million litres daily in August.

The shift, however, did not translate into an equivalent increase in petrol consumption. Rather, PMS consumption declined by 14 per cent month-on-month, from 48.3 million litres per day in July to 41.5 million litres daily in August.

The regulator’s August demand benchmark was 50 million litres per day, putting actual PMS consumption at 83 per cent of the benchmark and leaving a shortfall of 8.5 million litres per day, or 17 per cent. 

The figures meant that August’s average PMS receipts of 50.5 million litres daily were about 9 million litres above the 41.5 million litres consumed each day, although the country’s average PMS stock sufficiency remained below the regulator’s 30-day benchmark.

Besides, NMDPRA put petrol stock sufficiency at 22.9 days in August, up marginally from 22.4 days in July, but still 7.1 days below the required 30-day threshold. By comparison, diesel stocks covered 51.6 days, while aviation fuel stocks stood at 82.3 days. LPG stocks, at 17.2 days, were also below the 30-day threshold. 

The improvement in petrol supply was occurring against a wider increase in crude deliveries to domestic refineries. Crude oil receipts by domestic refineries rose 17 per cent month-on-month, from 585,000 barrels per day in July to 683,000 barrels per day in August.

But while the Dangote plant continued to dominate domestic refined-product supply, the NNPC refineries remained non-operational during the month, according to the factsheet.

The regulator’s data on modular refineries showed activity among WalterSmith, Edo Refinery, Aradel and OPAC, although the available August figures were concentrated on automotive gas oil (AGO), with combined average AGO supplied by the facilities put at 0.79 million litres per day. WalterSmith recorded 64.77 per cent average capacity utilisation, Edo Refinery 90.43 per cent, Aradel 58.77 per cent and OPAC 16.97 per cent. 

Beyond petrol, the August data showed a sharp contraction in diesel inflows, even as consumption remained above the regulator’s benchmark.

AGO receipts fell 39 per cent from 23.6 million litres per day in July to 14.5 million litres daily in August. Domestic AGO receipts declined 16 per cent from 15.7 million litres to 13.2 million litres daily, while imports plunged 84 per cent from 7.9 million litres to just 1.3 million litres daily.

AGO consumption, meanwhile, fell 15 per cent from 16.8 million litres per day to 14.3 million litres daily, representing 102.1 per cent of the 14 million litres daily benchmark. 

Dangote’s August operations extended beyond petrol and diesel. The refinery reported average AGO production of 18.01 million litres daily, domestic AGO receipts of 12.37 million litres and exports of 8.75 million litres daily.

In aviation fuel, it produced 24.48 million litres daily, supplied 3.07 million litres to the domestic market and exported 21.30 million litres daily, while its closing stocks at August 31 stood at 137.2 million litres for AGO and 133.3 million litres for ATK. PMS closing stock was 360.4 million litres. 

Aviation fuel supply also strengthened considerably during the month. ATK receipts rose 63 per cent from 1.9 million litres per day in July to 3.1 million litres daily in August, while consumption increased 22 per cent from 2.3 million litres to 2.8 million litres daily.

LPG was the exception among the major products where imports increased. Total LPG receipts declined 19 per cent to 4.3 kilotonnes daily, with domestic receipts falling 32 per cent to three kilotonnes daily, but imports rose 44 per cent to 1.3 kilotonnes daily. Consumption nevertheless fell 11 per cent to 4.8 kilotonnes daily, although that was still 23.1 per cent above the 3.9-kilotonnes daily benchmark. 

On the gas side, domestic supply increased 4 per cent from 4.723 billion cubic feet per day in July to 4.930 Bcf/d in August.

The NMDPRA said Nigeria’s 47 gas-processing plants had a combined installed capacity of 16.187 Bcf/d, while average gas processed during the month stood at 8.258 Bcf/d, equivalent to about 51 per cent of installed capacity. 

Of the gas supplied to domestic users, an average 0.537 Bcf/d went to power generation, 0.633 Bcf/d to commercial users and 0.590 Bcf/d to gas-based industries during August.

NLNG exported an average 105,317 cubic metres of gas per day, equivalent to 51,683 metric tonnes per day, while pipeline exports through the West African Gas Pipeline averaged 0.152 Bcf/d. 

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