Only hope remains
Good Thursday morning. This is Andrew McDonald. We’re still waiting for the result in the Mississippi Senate race, I’m afraid.
THINGS HAVE CHANGED ROUND ‘ERE: Andy Burnham is back in the U.K. after successfully avoiding a major diplomatic row at CHOGM — and he lands in a political world that feels starkly different to the one he left. Westminster is digesting the U.S. midterms, and Burnham isn’t the only one seeing an upside.
Hope, again: Some government figures are starting to wonder whether they don’t have to be terrified Donald Trump will respond to his humiliation with a rash escalation of the war in Iran that inflicts heavy casualties and further damages the global economy. Though there are still a fair few jitters around about that too, as some glass half-empty types described to Emilio in Playbook PM.
But reasons to be cheerful cited to Playbook last night include … oil prices already tumbling in the wake of the elections, as the markets sense a vibe shift on the Middle East war … a huge intervention from Vice President JD Vance blaming the Republican wipeout on the conflict, which Westminster desperately hopes will end … and Trump’s own somewhat somber and restrained response to the results (with a big “SO FAR” caveat).
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Indeed: After a 30-minute ramble about the new White House ballroom, Trump said in a press conference last night Vance’s post was “largely true.” Though he said he’d launch the war again and that it would only end “whenever I want it to,” the gossip emerging from D.C. seems to be around the potential for a reshuffle of his Cabinet or staff rather than fire and fury.
Only hope remains: Thanks to all that, there’s some rhyme and reason behind Burnham’s endearingly optimistic take that this is an opportunity for the world to unite on the cost of living crisis and stopping the wars. One Burnham ally told Playbook they see a “genuine opportunity” to help Trump find an off-ramp on the conflicts that will make him and his party feel good about themselves again — though, of course, that comes up against the limits of the U.K.’s relevance to the U.S.
And if you’re wondering why you’re reading all this in London Playbook: Economists and analysts broadly expect the Bank of England to hike interest rates today for the first time since August 2023, my financial services colleagues write in. If that happens, it will be aimed at preventing prices climbing ever-upward this winter. Unlike other central banks, our own folks in the City had been waiting to see how the higher energy prices sparked by Trump’s war impacted the economy and whether they persisted … as they have, with no resolution in the Middle East or Ukraine. The decision will be out at noon and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds will respond for the government afterwards.
Keep an eye on … any hints the bank gives on the future, with some of those market-watching types expecting more interest rate rises to follow next year.
FETCH ME A BILLBOARD: The other reason for some of the hopeful noises emerging from Labour types last night lies in the straightforward party politics of it all. Government officials see a prime opportunity to remind the public that both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage were critical of Britain’s position early in the war, as Keir Starmer enraged Trump by withholding support (and initially the use of U.K. bases). “If it was up to them, Britain would have joined the war with Trump,” one said. “The public will remember that.” In case it doesn’t, the Lib Dems are already pushing that line — see foreign affairs spox Callum Miller’s post here.
Naturally: The Tories and Reform dislike that framing. “In the space of a few months, it’s gone from ‘no more point scoring’ to rehashing all the worst lies of the Keir Starmer era,” a Tory aide said. “Kemi only ever said we should protect our military bases, the rest is rancid Labour spin. If Burnham doesn’t want to be the next Keir Starmer, spending his post-PM career hawking his CV round the U.N., he should avoid copying the same playbook.”
Without relitigating the wars of March: Badenoch at the time hit out at Starmer for “sitting on the fence” as the war began. She had called for “offensive action” after U.K. bases in Cyprus and Bahrain were attacked by the Iranians and said Starmer was “catching arrows rather than stopping the archer.” The Tory leader was reiterating that point last night on an LBC phone-in — though she also acknowledged the war has “turned into a mess.”
As for Reform … Farage can expect a barrage of questions about the midterms, his own relationship with the guy who just got shellacked by the U.S. electorate and maybe even on his own position on the war, as he tries to unveil his party’s first “shadow armed forces minister” in a Westminster press conference from 2 p.m. Farage has also insisted his initial criticism of the government on Iran was only about use of British bases — but he was much more gung-ho in the early stages before changing his tune. A Reform official said Farage has been “consistent for over a decade that he is against forever wars,” unlike others.
Friendship ended with Donald, now Britain is my best friend: Farage’s long friendship with Trump is something else bound to keep rearing its head. But we’ve been hearing much less about discussions or meets between the pair for some time. “A distancing has already been going on,” a senior Reform official told my colleague Sam Blewett. “I don’t think this is going to change anything fundamentally. Reform is looking to be a U.K. government and though the U.S. is important and has massive implications for international policy, nonetheless that doesn’t alter what Reform needs to focus on, and that’s U.K. interests.” Watch for what Farage actually says about his old pal later.
On Farage’s other friendships: Sam — and my Paris-based colleague Clea Caulcutt — also hear that French presidential front-runner Marine Le Pen is keeping Farage hanging, despite the Reform boss hyping up a trip to see her back in September. Reform still insists the jaunt is in the “diary for this year,” but three officials in Le Pen’s National Rally said there’s nothing on the cards for 2026.
Chat, what’s French for “ouch”? One adviser to Le Pen acknowledged a need to “spend a bit more time thinking through the costs and benefits” of publicly associating with Farage. Another suggested he may just get yet another meeting with Le Pen’s second-in-command Jordan Bardella.
The dude Reform actually wants to talk about today: Angus MacIntyre, an RAF Wing Commander, will be unveiled by Farage as his armed forces spokesperson. He has ended his 40-year career in the military to join Reform’s team and Farage was boasting last night that he has more military experience than all of the government’s MoD front bench combined.
ANDY TIME: The government’s two key policy announcements into the day are some of the most obvious examples yet of what the Burnham-ism strategy looks like.
First, the cheap consumer-aimed hit: Ministers will consult on granting new powers to stop e-bikes blocking pavements when they’re parked badly, along with stopping bad riders from running red lights. It will look at possible national standards for how the bikes are used. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander will record a pool clip and broadcast interviews later after a visit this morning.
Second, the long-term (and devo-powered) rewiring job: Defra is setting up eight new regional water councils to give local politicians and businesses more say on how water companies invest in their area, as the government begins its buildup to the 10-year plan — where more detail on water industry regulation is promised.
BLIND SPOT: Safeguarding Minister Satvir Kaur told the Commons that smart glasses could be restricted over evidence they’re being used to surreptitiously film women and girls. She indicated the government is looking into restricting the sale of smart glasses to “certain users.” The Guardian has a write-up.
POUNDLAND PROBLEMS: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds held talks with the owners of Poundland on Wednesday. The i Paper reports that Reynolds received a commitment from the owners to prioritize bids that will protect U.K. workers’ jobs.
And we should find out today … if the owners will show up at the Commons BIST Committee next week, after Liam Byrne set a deadline of 5 p.m. for Gordon Brothers to respond to his invitation.
FEEDBACK FROM THE FORCES: Police and crime commissioners from five forces have publicly criticized Shabana Mahmood’s plans to create “mega-forces” by slashing the number in England and Wales from 43 to as few as nine. The commissioners told the Telegraph the plans are a distraction from crime fighting and would distance officers from the communities they serve. The commissioner in Merseyside, Labour’s Emily Spurrell, has written to Andy Burnham urging him to rethink the plan.
WHAT THE TORIES WANT TO TALK ABOUT: They’re claiming Labour’s immigration plans could leave taxpayers facing a £5.2 billion annual benefits bill, after their analysis suggested nearly 500,000 migrants granted permanent residency by 2030 could end up claiming universal credit. The Sun has a write-up.
TAKING THE BANK TAX FLAK: City Minister Lucy Rigby will give the keynote speech at the Association of Foreign Banks annual dinner at 7.30 p.m.
COURT CIRCULAR: Vickrum Digwa, the killer of Henry Nowak, appears at the Court of Appeal from 10 a.m. to challenge his sentence of life in prison with a 21-year minimum … and the Supreme Court challenge against the Palestine Action proscription continues.
PARLIAMENT: In recess until Nov. 10.
HEALTH HAZARD: Residents in Wigan living near to one of England’s worst illegal waste sites are to be offered health checks, including asthma and blood-pressure assessments. A Sky News investigation found there were hundreds of toxic chemicals in the area. Clearance of the 18,000 tonnes of waste is due to begin this month and continue into 2027.
DRUG WARNING: Cocaine has overtaken heroin as the leading cause of drug deaths in England and Wales for the first time. Charities tell the BBC it’s because of cocaine’s increased purity and availability, now linked to more than one in five drug-poisoning deaths registered in 2025.
PATIENT INBOUND: A British citizen who has tested positive for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be flown back to the U.K. for treatment. Reuters has identified the patient as a health care worker, and Sky reports that the person is due in Britain on Wednesday or Thursday.
IRAN SANCTIONS: The U.S. has imposed fresh sanctions on Indian and Turkish companies and individuals accused of helping Iran evade international restrictions, Reuters reports.
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Environment Secretary Angela Eagle broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky Mornings (7.15 a.m.) … a pre-recorded interview on Today playing out at 7.50 a.m. … Good Morning Britain (8.35 a.m.).
Lib Dem Europe spokesperson Al Pinkerton broadcast round: Times Radio (6.15 a.m.) … LBC News (6.45 a.m.) … GB News (8.05 a.m.).
Reform UK MP Danny Kruger broadcast round: GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (8.10 a.m.) … Sky Mornings (8.50 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Singer James Blunt (9.50 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Poundland co-founder Steve Smith (7.20 a.m.).
Also on GB News Breakfast: Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately (7.05 a.m.).
Also on Sky Mornings: Democratic strategist Christine Pelosi (7.30 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio: Helen Whately (7.45 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: Children’s Minister Josh MacAlister (8.45 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two, 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Siobhain McDonagh … former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke … journalist Taj Ali.
POLITICO UK: Le Pen keeps Farage hanging over his Paris trip.
Daily Express: You are not listening.
Daily Mirror: Reborn in the U.S.A.
Daily Star: And now the end is near.
Financial Times: Crushing midterm rebuke to Trump.
The Daily Telegraph: Vance turns on Trump.
The i Paper: Vance blames Trump’s war for crushing defeat.
The Times: Trump faces backlash as Democrats make history.
The Sun: Markle ‘filth stash No. 3’
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Light cloud and breeze, with a high of 11C and low of 7C.
NUNN THE WISER: Chancellor John Healey popped into a Caffè Nero on Tuesday after a stint selling poppies outside Liverpool Street station that an ally said lasted about 40 minutes. He turned round to find himself facing Lloyds Bank CEO Charlie Nunn — who used the surprise meeting to talk to him about gilt markets for 20 minutes.
SPOTTED … at BBC presenter Laura Kuenssberg’s book launch at Hatchards in Piccadilly: former Science and Tech Secretary Peter Kyle, wearing a T-shirt … No. 10’s Ben Nunn, John Stevens and Calum Masters … Labour peers Louise Casey and Ayesha Hazarika … Social Mobility Foundation Chair Alan Milburn … documentary maker Michael Cockerell … podcast hosts Cleo Watson and Helen MacNamara … Conservative peer Simon Hart … broadcasters Jeremy Vine, Susanna Reid and Paul Brand … former MP Sam Gyimah … entrepreneur Iain Anderson … adviser Guto Harri … celebrity chef Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall … pollster Luke Tryl … Cavendish’s James Bird … journalist Neil Breakwell … Lib Dems’ Head of Comms Gareth Lewis and Political Director James Holt … the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire, Nick Robinson, Nick Watt, Adam Fleming, Sophie Raworth, Rachel Jupp, Vicki Young, Paddy O’Connell, Paul Twinn, Diana Martin, Sam Woodhead and Hugh Milbourn … and Laura K team including Brian Hollywood, Diana Martin and Paul Twinn.
Also spotted … at outgoing Lib Dem press officer/stunt coordinator Ami Wyllie’s leaving drinks: Leader Ed Davey … MPs Daisy Cooper, Joshua Reynolds, Jess Brown-Fuller, Bobby Dean, Josh Babarinde, Wendy Chamberlain, Olly Glover and Alison Bennett … peer Olly Grender … spinners and staffers including James Holt, Gareth Lewis, James Brockway, Ellie Fingleton, Oscar Charlesworth, Owen Reeman and Gabriel Prabhu Carreres.
CONGRATS TO: Sky Political Correspondent Ali Fortescue, who’s celebrating eight years at the broadcaster.
REALITY TV ASPIRATIONS: During an LBC call-in with Iain Dale, Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch confessed she would rather be on “The Traitors” than “Gogglebox.”
THURSDAY’S POD PICK: More in Common’s U.S. Head of Research Stephen Hawkins unpacks the midterms with U.K. Director Luke Tryl on the Opinion Brief.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
BIRTHDAYS: Former Corby MP Tom Pursglove … former Dover MP Natalie Elphicke … former North Swindon MP Justin Tomlinson … former NHS Confederation Chief Executive Niall Dickson … PF Global comms director Abigail Morris … former Council of Europe secretary-general and ex-Prime Minister of Norway Thorbjørn Jagland.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Matt Honeycombe-Foster, Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Megan McElroy and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.
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