Olivia Chow leads the pack in Toronto’s mayoral race, says a new poll - Toronto Star

Incumbent Olivia Chow, former MP Chris Alexander and Coun. Brad Bradford, the three frontrunners in Toronto’s mayoral race, take part in the debate hosted by the Star and the Toronto Region Board of Trade, moderated by the Star’s editor-in-chief, Nicole MacIntyre.

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow has a double-digit lead over her closest competitor in the upcoming municipal election, and is leagues ahead of the remaining candidates, according to a new poll. 

A random sampling of public opinion, conducted by The Forum Poll among 1,014 Toronto voters, put Chow in the lead with 46 per cent of voters, followed by Brad Bradford with support of 35 per cent of voters.

Chris Alexander garnered support from six per cent of voters.

“Olivia Chow remains in a strong position in the mayoral race, holding a double-digit lead over Brad Bradford among Toronto voters,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Chow maintains this lead despite a slightly negative job approval rating and concerns about conditions in the city.”

Bradford a city councillor for Ward 19, Beaches—East York, is running against Chow, who is seeking a second term as mayor. 

Chow is leading the mayoral race despite the fact that less than half — 38 per cent of respondents to the poll — approve of the job she is doing as mayor, and 43 per cent disapprove. The remaining voters neither approved nor disapproved or weren’t sure how well she has been doing her job. 

Respondents to the poll identified several major issues: 78 per cent said the cost of living is getting worse; 66 per cent said traffic congestion is getting worse; 53 per cent said they thought crime is on the rise and 54 per cent said property taxes are too high.

However, 22 per cent of respondents said property taxes are about right and 14 per cent believe they are too low.

Earlier this month, Chow said she would keep property taxes at or around inflation every year, should she be re-elected.

Her first term in office included a record 9.5 per cent increase in property taxes in 2024 and a 6.9 per cent increase in 2025.

Bradford recently promised a freeze on property taxes in his first year, along with an independent review of city spending, and increases in property taxes below the rate of inflation in the following years.

Alexander is promising not to raise property taxes in his first year in office.

According to the data — which is not predictive, but a snapshot of a point in time — Chow’s greatest weakness is in York, where 49 per cent of respondents chose Bradford, over 33 per cent for Chow.

Chow’s support is greatest in the former City of Toronto, at 53 per cent, and in Scarborough at 50 per cent, according to the data.

Bradford’s support skews older, with about 45 per cent of respondents aged 45-64 indicating they would support him, while Chow dominates the 18-24 age range, with 62 per cent of respondents in that age bracket supporting her.

Notably, Chow leads strongly among the 65+ demographic, at 49 per cent versus Bradford’s 36 per cent — older voters tend to turn out in greater numbers, which could matter on election day. 

Francine Kopun is a Toronto Star journalist and senior writer, based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @KopunF