Ohio and Texas went from red to blue in the midterms, but may not stay that way in 2028 - CBC

James Talarico, left, and Gina Hinojosa celebrate their midterm victories with soft drinks at Whataburger in Austin, Texas, early on Wednesday. Talarico is the state's first Democratic senator since 1993, while Hinojosa is the first Latina governor and the first Democrat to hold the office since the 1990s. (James Talarico/X/Reuters)Social SharingThe Democrats flipping governor and Senate seats in Texas and Ohio — along with some state legislature victories — resulted in both states turning dramatically blue on election night.

Some political observers caution that the wins, while significant, don't necessarily mean that Democratic blue will remain the permanent political colour — after all, each state still has one Republican senator. But it does reveal a new political reality that Texas and Ohio will be electoral battlegrounds in the 2028 presidential election.

On Tuesday, Democrats scored victories in governor's races in states long controlled by Republicans, giving the party the first majority of governors for the first time in two decades.

Democrats also flipped seven seats in the upper chamber, including in Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

Also in Ohio, Amy Acton delivered what was considered an upset victory, defeating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and becoming the first Democrat to win the governorship in 20 years.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton speaks Tuesday in Columbus, Ohio, following her victory on election night. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

But perhaps some of the most surprising flips came in Texas, where James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton to become the state's first Democratic senator since 1993.

More shocking to political observers was Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeating Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for the governorship. Hinojosa became the first Democratic governor of Texas in more than 30 years.

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"Talarico is a symbol. Gina is an earthquake," Garry Mauro, a former Texas land commissioner who was among the last Democrats to win a statewide race in 1994, told The New York Times.

Not only did Democrats flip a Senate seat, the governorship and seize control of the Texas House for the first time in more than two decades, they also flipped two Texas seats in the House of Representatives.

The success of Democrats in Texas in the midterms is particularly significant for the 2028 election because it's a traditionally red state that has long been expected to automatically deliver its 40 electoral votes to the Republican presidential candidate.

John Barrett, a professor of political science at Texas-based LeTourneau University, told CBC News that had Talerico been the state's only winner, he may have chalked it up to a political "fluke," that Talerico was just a good candidate with a weak opponent.

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But Abbott's concession, along with the Senate and governorship victories, indicated to Barrett that a "political earthquake" had indeed occurred.

"I like that term because every generation or so, the political plates, you know, realign."

Barrett listed off a number of areas in Texas, including Denton County, Tarrant County, Collin County, that Democrats have almost never carried.

"They all turned blue," he said.
"The suburbs all around the cities turned blue."

Barrett says much of this can be attributed to Latino voters and so-called soccer moms switching their votes from Republican to Democrat.

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Those demographics may have initially been drawn to Trump two years earlier over his promises to fix the economy and lower inflation, but he says they've since soured on the president because they believe he hasn't lived up to his promises. He believes that in the future, those voters will still be up for grabs.

"That's not to say that the Democrats are going to win from here on out," he said. "But I do think it's going to be more feasible for them to win."

"Texas is going to be in play in a way that it hasn't been to date."

Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Texas-based Southern Methodist University, says it's too soon to write off Republicans in Texas.

He noted that years ago, the state was a Democratic stronghold and it took decades for the Republicans to become the natural governing party.

Jillson says he believes the midterm results were due, in part, to an electorate that was negative on Trump, saw top Republicans as tied to him and regarded the Republican Party in general as arrogant and entitled.

"I think Texas is still a red state, but not as deeply red as it once was, and it will continue to evolve toward two-party competitive politics," Jillson told CBC News.

Political science professor Robert Alexander at Ohio-based Bowling Green State University, said Democrats all over the U.S., but particularly in Ohio and Texas, featured the same kind of candidates hitting the same kind of populist messages.

Trump has won Ohio three times, and carried the state by 11 points in 2024. But Alexander, who is also the founding director of the Democracy and Public Policy Network, says the same voters who chose Trump then, turned around and voted Brown into the Senate this year.

"So I think the Democrats really did zero in on those populist values," he said.

Democrats also made huge inroads in Ohio's state legislature, breaking the Republican supermajority there.

Alexander says that despite Republican losses at the Senate and governor level, the party was still competitive in races at the state and local level.

"They still lost in most cases, but those races were razor thin," he told CBC News. "I think that speaks to, there is a pull toward the Republican Party in the state, even in a wave year."

Alexander says that rather than being distinctly red or blue, he sees Ohio as "more populist and purplish."

He also notes that 2028 will still be a fight, despite the defeat the Republicans suffered this year. "I mean, it's going to be hyper competitive."

Mark Gollom is a Toronto-based reporter with CBC News. He covers Canadian and U.S. politics and current affairs.