NFL Week 2 best bets, picks and props for Sunday games - USA Today
Week 2’s arrived, and I’ve got five plays on the card.
Well, truthfully, I probably have two dozen plays on my card. What can I say? I’m a volume guy.
Figured I’d whittle it down to my favorites for you.
We’re targeting a quarterback to clear 209.5 passing yards in a game where I think he could throw for 300.
There are two road underdogs I like to win outright, though I’m taking the points with one of them.
Similar to my view of Bills-Lions on Thursday, I want points from a matchup featuring a prolific offense and a deeply concerning defense. One of these teams just played in a 96-point game. Asking for half that here doesn’t seem outrageous.
And, guilty, give me the biggest favorite on the board to embarrass the competition. Is that too much to ask?
Week 1 can fool us. I’m banking on a few of those early impressions being the real deal. If I’m right, we’ll be headed to the bank.
Former Browns No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield spent four seasons in Cleveland — even winning a playoff game — before the team traded for Deshaun Watson and handed him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract. Mayfield briefly bounced around the league, eventually slotting in as Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback.
Now he gets to face his old club and the man who replaced him.
The narrative is irresistible. The number’s appealing, too.
The Browns just allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 245 yards and four touchdowns in a Jaguars rout. Mayfield’s opener was a mess. He lost three fumbles in a narrow defeat to the Bengals, but he still threw for 216 yards. That’s enough to clear this line on a day when almost nothing went right.
A runaway Bucs win could limit his attempts late. I’m betting Mayfield gets to 210 before that becomes a problem. Wouldn’t blame you for laddering that total up, too.
I wouldn’t normally go hunting for a road underdog against what many consider a championship-caliber defense.
But Josh Allen and the Bills opened the year by scoring 36 points in the Texans’ building. Now Houston looks like it will be missing its best receiver with Nico Collins nursing a hamstring injury.
Cincinnati put up 33 against Tampa Bay, aided by four takeaways from Al Golden’s revamped defense. Don’t count on four more this week.
Don’t count on Ja’Marr Chase following up a quiet opener with another one, either.
Joe Burrow’s back tightness needs monitoring. Assuming he’s good to go, forget the points. Give me the outright win.
Thirteen points is a lot. So was the distance between these teams in Week 1.
The 49ers held the Rams to seven points in Australia. The Dolphins managed 13 against the Raiders, with Malik Willis taking five sacks as the defense generated 27 pressures. If that protection doesn’t improve, it’s hard to see Miami sustaining enough drives to stay close.
The other matchup is just as uncomfortable for the Dolphins. Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. combined for 143 rushing yards against them. Now it’s Christian McCaffrey’s turn, with Brock Purdy able to attack a vulnerable secondary through Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
A late backdoor cover is always lurking with a number this big. But if the 49ers want to name their number in their home opener, I think they can. I’m betting they choose violence.
Another spot where I think the dog is live to win outright. On my own card, I split the stake: a half-unit on the spread and a half-unit on the moneyline. Both are available for plus-money.
Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns in Jacksonville’s Week 1 rout of Cleveland. Bo Nix threw for 128 yards, lost a fumble and was intercepted as Denver got humbled by Kansas City on Monday night. The Broncos converted just two of 12 third downs.
One game doesn’t settle how good either quarterback will be this season. The Jaguars did look more ready, though, and they’ve had an extra day of rest.
Brian Thomas Jr. is expected to play despite his shoulder injury, giving Lawrence another option against a Broncos defense that remains a serious test.
Denver should be better than it was last week. But I haven’t forgotten that the Jaguars won 34-20 at Mile High last December, ending the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak.
Chicago scored 59 points against Carolina and allowed 37. Minnesota beat Green Bay 39-22 after scoring the game’s final 29 points.
That’s a whole lot of offense to follow with a total below 49.
The Bears won’t have the same running room against Brian Flores’ defense. Caleb Williams will have to answer pressure, and that’s the best argument against this play. But Chicago has enough weapons to score without another eight-touchdown eruption, while its defense gave Bryce Young room to throw for 361 yards in the opener.
Carson Wentz tossed three TDs against the Packers, two to Justin Jefferson. He doesn’t need to match the Bears score for score. The Vikings just need to contribute enough against a defense with legitimate concerns.
As I felt for Lions-Bills on Thursday, just give me points.
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