New Poll Shows Byron Donalds, David Jolly Deadlocked in Florida Race - Newsweek

Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are neck-and-neck in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey, with just 47 days until Election Day.

The race will determine who succeeds term-limited Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in a state where Republicans have held the governorship continuously since 1999.

Donalds holds a razor-thin lead over Jolly, 43.5 percent to 43.4 percent among likely voters, the St. Pete Polls survey conducted from September 15 to 17 found. Another 4 percent back someone else, while 9 percent remain undecided.

Notably, the survey found independents favor Jolly by 12 points.

The poll, conducted for Florida Politics, has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points and surveyed 913 likely general-election voters.

The race pits Donalds, a prominent Trump ally, against Jolly, a former Republican who is now running as a Democrat. Donalds has the backing of both Trump, who endorsed him before he entered the race, and DeSantis, who endorsed him after he won the Republican nomination in August.

Jolly served in Congress as a Republican before leaving the party in 2018. He joined the Democratic Party in 2025.

Newsweek reached out to the Donalds and Jolly campaigns via email for comment late Thursday night.

Both candidates made stops in Central Florida on Thursday.

Florida has the highest average homeowners insurance costs in the U.S., making the issue a central focus of both Donalds’ and Jolly’s campaigns.

Jolly has proposed creating a state catastrophic insurance fund that would remove hurricane and wind coverage from the private insurance market. He says the plan could reduce homeowners’ insurance costs by 60 percent to 70 percent.

Donalds unveiled his ‘Bring Down the Bill’ property insurance package, which calls for changes to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and restructuring state grants to prioritize projects that benefit homeowners.

A Change Research poll, released September 10, found Jolly with 47 percent support among likely voters and Donalds with 44 percent. The 3 percentage-point gap is about the same as the poll’s modeled margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Earlier polling has shown mixed results but continues to point to a competitive race. A Hart Research Associates poll conducted in August found Jolly narrowly ahead of Donalds, 46 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and was commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association.

Several earlier surveys showed Donalds ahead. A July poll from Targoz Market Research found Donalds leading Jolly 45 percent to 38 percent, while a University of North Florida poll conducted that month had Donalds ahead 46 percent to 41 percent. A Stetson University poll conducted in March and April also showed Donalds ahead, 47 percent to 40 percent.

A May Change Research poll found Jolly ahead 46 percent to 42 percent.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas