NC crisis: Could exit of 20 disgruntled MLAs cost Omar Abdullah his majority?

The National Conference (NC) leadership faces a fresh political challenge in Jammu and Kashmir, with disgruntled party MLAs refusing to back down over their demands following the recent cabinet reshuffle. The dissident legislators are likely to meet party patron Farooq Abdullah in Srinagar on Friday to formally put forward their demands, even as Chief Minister Omar Abdullah attempts to contain the growing discontent within the ruling party.

According to sources, a few disgruntled MLAs are expected to meet Farooq Abdullah, while the Chief Minister is also likely to be present during the discussions. The legislators are adamant about their demands and want ministers who have completed two years in office to be removed from the council of ministers.

The dissidents are also likely to hold another meeting on Thursday to finalise their strategy ahead of Friday's talks. This would be their fourth meeting since the recent cabinet reshuffle, indicating that the resentment has not subsided despite efforts by the party leadership to play down the crisis.

The immediate trigger for the discontent is the October 27 cabinet expansion, in which four new ministers were inducted, taking the council of ministers to its maximum permissible strength of nine. The exclusion of senior leaders, particularly six-time MLA Mubarak Gul, has triggered resentment among sections of the party.

The crisis has also brought the focus back on the party's internal equations and whether Omar Abdullah can keep his flock together. The National Conference leadership has so far officially dismissed reports of a rebellion, describing the legislators' gathering as a routine social meeting over lunch ahead of the Darbar move.

Hazratbal MLA Salman Sagar also dismissed reports of dissent at a press conference on Wednesday, alleging that such claims were being circulated by people with vested interests.WHAT HAPPENS IF 20 NC MLAs RESIGN?

The growing discontent has raised questions over the stability of the Omar Abdullah government, particularly if a sizeable group of NC legislators decides to resign from the Assembly.

The 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Assembly has a majority mark of 46. The ruling alliance currently has the support of 54 legislators, comprising 41 NC MLAs, six Congress MLAs, six Independents and one CPM member. The Opposition has 29 BJP MLAs, four from the PDP, one from the Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference, one from the AAP and one Independent.

However, if 20 NC MLAs resign together and their resignations are accepted by the Speaker, the effective strength of the Assembly would fall to 70, bringing the majority mark down to 36.

The NC's strength would consequently drop from 41 to 21. If one Independent MLA also withdraws support, the ruling alliance would be left with 33 legislators: 21 NC MLAs, five Independents, six Congress MLAs and one CPM member.

This would leave the Omar Abdullah government three short of the majority mark, potentially putting its survival in jeopardy.CAN DISSIDENT MLAs JUMP SHIP?

However, there is an important legal hurdle for any group of NC legislators looking to switch sides.

The anti-defection provisions under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution apply to Jammu and Kashmir's Assembly under Section 28 of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019. An MLA who voluntarily gives up membership of the party on whose ticket they were elected can face disqualification. The same applies to legislators who defy their party whip in a vote, subject to the provisions of the law.

The law provides an exception in the case of a merger, for which at least two-thirds of the members of the legislature party must agree. In the NC's case, that would mean at least 28 of its 41 MLAs. A group of 20 would not meet that threshold. The earlier one-third split provision was removed in 2003.

Resignation, however, is a separate route. Under Section 26 of the Reorganisation Act, an MLA's seat becomes vacant once the Speaker accepts the resignation submitted in writing.

For now, the immediate test for Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah is whether they can persuade the disgruntled legislators to reconsider their position before the internal crisis turns into a direct threat to the government's majority.- Ends

Sunil Ji Bhat currently heads the Jammu Bureau of India Today Group and reports for both India Today TV and Aaj Tak.

From covering terror attacks and Pakistani shelling at the Line of Control (LoC) and international border (IB) to reporting from anti-terrorist operations' sites, Sunil's ground reportage has been the best and unmatched. In his special reports from Jammu, Sunil has also brought to the fore the plight of Valmiki Samaj, West Pakistan refugees, Gorkha community, displaced communities from Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) and displaced Kashmiri Pandits. He has also highlighted the narrative of Jammu which is very different from Kashmir narrative. Sunil has filed many heart wrenching stories on terror victims and given voice to the voiceless. He is also a knowledge powerhouse when it comes to ancient, political, cultural history of Jammu & Kashmir.

Sunil has interviewed senior politicians from J&K like National Conference Chief & former J&K CM Dr Farooq Abdullah, senior Congress leader & former J&K CM Ghulam Nabi Azad, Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh, J&K BJP chief Ravinder Raina, former J&K Deputy CMs Kavinder Gupta & Dr Nirmal Singh and many other important politicians. Sunil has also interviewed national politicians like Union Ministers Smriti Irani and Anurag Thakur, BJP's national general secretary Tarun Chugh, senior BJP leaders Ram Madhav & Vinod Tawde, senior Congress leaders Ambika Soni and Ragini Nayak, senior AIADMK leader & former Tamil Nadu Minister RB Udhaykumar and nation's real estate tycoon Niranjan Hiranandani.

He has also covered important events in J&K like abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Sunil's coverage during and after the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A has been impeccable.

He is also a keen observer of international affairs and holds expertise in issues pertaining to the Middle-East. He has also interviewed Deputy Speaker of Israeli Parliament Sharren Haskel. He has also appeared as an inhouse panelist in TV debates on India Today TV and social media pages on issues pertaining to Jammu & Kashmir, terrorism, India-Israel relations and national political issues.

Sunil also writes for India Today and Aaj Tak's websites. He has filed many exceptional feature reports for India Today Group's digital platforms. He also contributes for various youtube channels of India Today Group.