Lula holds thin lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a candidate for reelection for the Workers' Party (PT), attends a rally in Sao Goncalo, Brazil September 24, 2026. REUTERS/Tita Barros

SAO PAULO, Sept 24 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential runoff ahead of October's election, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.

In a simulated runoff, Lula would receive 47% of the vote compared with 45% for Bolsonaro. A previous Datafolha poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46% to 44%.

• The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll's margin of error of 2 percentage points.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (36%), Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%) and Renan Santos (3%).

• The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39% against the right-wing senator's 36%.

• Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22-23. REUTERS