London Playbook PM: GOP figure
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
— Andy Burnham reckons the crushing midterm results for Donald Trump offer a chance to tackle rocketing fuel prices.
— A former U.S. ambassador told us now could be the moment to bend the president’s ear on the Iran war.
— A Conservative ex-minister said he is celebrating the blow for “dreadful human being” Trump.
— The British PM tinkled the steel pans before a showdown with Commonwealth leaders and a long flight home.
— A collapse in the pact between Labour and the Greens on Sheffield council might have been averted.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Financial empowerment is finding a bit of wiggle room. Lloyds Banking Group is enabling one million people to build towards a financial buffer by 2030, using practical digital tools, personalised prompts and savings features to help make putting something aside feel simpler. Lives Empowered. A Nation Empowered. **
GOP FIGURE: Even the prime minister couldn’t quite conceal his glee at Donald Trump and the failed war in Iran winning a ferocious kicking in the U.S. midterms.
We’re all gassed: “I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that’s the cost of living,” Andy Burnham said this afternoon in a short TV interview from the CHOGM summit in the Caribbean.
Ferocious kicking latest: As Playbook PM went to pixel, the Democrats had won 54 Senate seats and 228 House seats — a.k.a. solid majorities in both. Results are still coming in, but the picture is looking so bad for the president that the White House shared an image reminding voters he remains in office.
You know he’s been cowed when … Trump admitted to Fox News that voters “didn’t like” stumping up more for fuel as a result of his Iran war — a point Vice President JD Vance rammed home in a damning social media post for his boss. Trump even (it might be worth sitting down for this one) congratulated his Democrat opponents on a “good job” in the elections. It’s no doubt a coincidence that his rare soft tone comes as those Democrats prepare to investigate corruption allegations swirling around the Trumps.
For more on the fallout across the pond: Our POLITICO colleagues in the U.S. have tons of coverage, including the embarrassment for Trump cheerleader Elon Musk, as well as the Republicans turning on the president.
But back to how it’s landing in Britain: “I can’t get people’s cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved; the conflict in Ukraine started by Russia,” an emboldened Burnham added in his TV clip. “These are the things we have to focus on now, and I hope the world has a moment to do that. And certainly, in my calls with leaders, that is what I will be asking everybody to do. I’ll be working for de-escalation.”
Get it Don, mate: “To make it very clear, we want to see a resolution; the Strait of Hormuz fully opened again,” Burnham said. Full clip here.
Despite the confident talk: One government aide said No. 10 is alive to the risk that the crushing results could prompt further rash action from Trump. “There’s some nervousness about what he’ll do to fire up his base / distract / divert blame in the short term,” the person said. “He can still do what he likes in Iran or wherever next … albeit he’s more financially constrained in doing so.” A minister also countered that Trump’s newfound domestic weakness “will not make much difference” when it comes to his armed forces ventures.
Indeed: Former Foreign Office SpAd Ben Judah told Playbook PM a “lame-duck” Trump “will now flee into foreign policy,” adding: “Expect him to chase a deal with Putin over Ukraine even harder so he can show the nation he’s a peacemaker not just the leader who botched Iran.” Michael Martins, from Overton Advisory and formerly of the U.S. embassy, also warned Trump could double down on “legacy building — which could include trying to force a deal on Ukraine, and going harder on Iran now he doesn’t have to worry about losing Congress.”
On which note: Former British ambassador to the U.S. Peter Westmacott told Playbook now could be the ideal moment to appeal to the president — not least to counter other voices. He said Trump’s obsession with Iran (after tearing up Barack Obama’s nuclear deal) could see him “manipulated” by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu “into doing something stupid.” Westmacott said the current uncertainty is therefore “a good time for those who don’t want a renewal of hostilities to start bending the president’s ear.”
Making a similar point: Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper asked Deputy PM Lou Haigh (standing in for Burnham at PMQs) to tell Trump “no more strikes.” Haigh reiterated that the government aim is deescalation — although officials aren’t expecting too different an approach in seeking that aim.
Speaking of the Lib Dems: The most vocal Trump-haters in Westminster are of course thrilled about the midterm results and are using the MAGA blow to attack Reform and the Tories.
Which is a useful reminder that … we’ve still not heard from Trump bestie Nigel Farage — although his GB News pulpit airs as usual from 7 p.m. tonight. Kemi Badenoch also hasn’t commented but is doing an LBC phone-in from 7 p.m.
Is this the Conservative line? Tory ex-minister Graham Stuart holstered his word-mincer on Politics Live this afternoon to “celebrate” the “rebuff” to “dreadful human being” Trump who has “done so much to corrupt” the U.S. “I hope this is the beginning of the repair,” Stuart added. Let’s see if Badenoch comes close to that.
Also thrilled: Former Chancellor Rachel Reeves … London Mayor (and Trump bête noire) Sadiq Khan … Conservative MP Simon Hoare … ex-Cabinet minister Darren Jones … Green leader Zack Polanski … and loads more.
One of the few Brits who isn’t too pleased is … former David Cameron aide Steve Hilton. His Republican bid to become California governor ended in flames (the bad kind) with 36% of the vote compared with 64% for winner Xavier Becerra. That will teach him to mislabel a taco.
STEEL (PANS) TO COME: Andy Burnham has “retreated” with fellow Commonwealth leaders to hammer out a collective statement rounding off their summit in Antigua and Barbuda. He and Ed Miliband managed to fit in the now traditional overseas musical performance before the closed-doors meeting began. Clip here. The retreat communiqué should appear later this evening, with Burnham set to return to Britain overnight.
In his absence … Deputy PM Lou Haigh and Deputy Conservative Leader Alex Burghart went at it over the despatch boxes at DPMQs. It was a politics-by-numbers affair, with Burghart griping about Labour having no plan to cut welfare costs and Haigh pointing out that welfare costs soared under the Tories — all while Conservative MP Charlie Dewhurst, sitting right behind Burghart, huffed with faux outrage at whatever Haigh said and roared with approval at whatever Burghart said.
Side hustle? Dewhurst would make for the perfect extra as a loyal backbench MP in a political drama (or farce, perhaps.)
Speaking of farce: Burghart managed to avoid jibes about Haigh once being sacked over her stolen mobile phone claim. But Conservative backbencher Lincoln Jopp made up for it — grabbing a colleague’s phone and waving it, alongside his own, at the Labour benches.
IF I HAD A POUNDLAND FOR EVERY FAILED HIGH-STREET STORE: The government is not expected to nationalize ailing bargain chain Poundland, but Andy Burnham urged owners Gordon Brothers to work with ministers on a solution to avoid collapse. “We’re prepared to find what we can do,” he told broadcasters in the Caribbean. “We believe in this instance there is a solution. There are many viable outlets here. Other retailers are expressing interest. Get around the table. Let’s find a solution.”
SEND IT INTO THE FUTURE: Education Secretary Lucy Powell confirmed to the Education Committee the government has delayed introducing its SEND reform legislation until 2027.
CHECK YOURSELF: NHS England CEO Jim Mackey told MPs on the Health Committee he has asked Palantir to check wording with the NHS before making claims about the benefits of their controversial Federated Data Platform. It comes after the NHS itself had to caveat FDP claims after a telling off from the official stats watchdog.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Introducing its bill allowing local leaders to impose tourist taxes … and creating a new GCSE in Ukrainian, which was a nice birthday present for Labour MP Joe Powell who has been calling for one.
LOOKING FOR VOLUNTEERS (BEFORE WE FORCE YOU): Labour Chief Whip Anneliese Midgley wrote to Labour MPs asking them to let her know which Fridays they can be in the Commons while the House is sitting — including at least one before Christmas. “A very important part of being in Government is protecting Government business here in Parliament,” she said in the note, which Playbook PM has seen. “As One Labour Team, that means we need everyone’s help to ensure we have the numbers for every Sitting Friday and to support colleagues from Departments right across Government.”
Carrot vs. stick: “By volunteering, it also means we can avoid having to put a Whip on a Friday,” Midgley added. One Labour wag had a simple question: “Why is One Labour Team capitalised like they’re a band?”
BROKEN BRITAIN LATEST: Private Eye details how Whitehall has been watering down targets for private sector contractors that fail to deliver on their promises to the state. It’s on page 37 of the latest issue.
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COMING ATTRACTIONS: Prince Harry and Meghan Markle will visit the European Parliament next week to discuss online child safety, according to two people familiar with the matter. Our Max Griera has the story.
BREAK UP, MAKE UP: The Labour group on Sheffield City Council is changing its mind about banishing the Greens over the “Zionism is Racism” motion ultimatum, according to the Sheffield Tribune. Just two days after announcing the pact was over, leader Fran Belbin said last minute talks mean the parties will now continue working together.
BOMB THREAT: Police in Northern Ireland say a stash of 17 explosive devices found in Belfast are linked to “extreme rightwing terrorism.” The Belfast Telegraph has the story.
AI AMENDMENTS: European Parliament members have been warned not to rely too heavily on AI when drafting legislation. Parliamentary officials had reported a surge in AI-written amendments, some of which included references to non-existent laws. My POLITICO colleague Max Griera has a write up.
THREE WAY: A trilateral meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping is on the cards for later this month, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed. Russia and U.S. leaders have already said they’d be keen. Bloomberg has more.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Financial empowerment is finding a bit of wiggle room. It means having the confidence, capability and control to make informed decisions about money. Only half of UK adults feel financially empowered, yet 57% say better digital tools, information or guidance could change that. Lloyds Banking Group is enabling one million people to build towards a financial buffer by 2030. Savings pots, automatic savings and personalised prompts can help make putting something aside feel simpler when circumstances allow. The potential benefit could be national as well as personal. Modelling commissioned by Lloyds Banking Group suggests that digitally enabled financial empowerment could unlock around £3,500 in value for every UK household over the next decade. There is no one-size-fits-all financial buffer. It is about making the next step simpler to create a little more breathing space when it matters. Lives Empowered. A Nation Empowered. **
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on the U.S. midterms.
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chair Emily Thornberry … Crossbench peer Simon McDonald.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Conservative MP Nick Timothy … Labour MP Jonathan Brash.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Pensions Minister Jonathan Ashworth … Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.
The Cathy Newman Show (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Labour peer Thangam Debbonaire … former Justice Secretary David Gauke … Emily Thornberry.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Chi Onwurah … Shadow Equalities Joy Morrissey.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Conservative MP Julia Lopez.
Peston (9 p.m. on Twitter, 10.45 p.m. on ITV): Emily Thornberry … Former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): Former Conservative SpAd Salma Shah … the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The Sun’s Ryan Sabey and journo Laura Trevelyan.
LASHED WITH LABOURLIST: The Labour grassroots bible is hosting drinks from 6 p.m. at the Tattershall Castle to celebrate its new website. Invites needed.
SHOPS AND SHOTS: The Civic High Street Collective is hosting drinks at 6 p.m.
LOTS OF SPARKLES: Milltown Partners is hosting a bonfire night-themed drinks event at Riviera, from 6.30 p.m.
HOLT THE FRONT PAGE: Comedian Rosie Holt is among the names appearing at a Leviathan Political Cabaret show at the Tattershall Castle from 7 p.m. Tickets here.
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Business Committee has a report out on critical mineral supply chains.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Remembrance, homelessness, e-bikes and water.
COURT CIRCULAR: Vickrum Digwa, the killer of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, is due to appear at the Court of Appeal to challenge the length of his 21 year sentence.
ALSO IN COURT: A Supreme Court challenge against the Palestine Action proscription continues.
DEAL REVEAL: The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision at midday.
ARMY MAN: Nigel Farage and Danny Kruger will appear at a press conference to reveal a Reform armed forces spokesperson, at 2 p.m.
NEW GIG: Former Keir Starmer aide Amy Richards has a new gig as principal political lead for BB Partners.
SPOTTED: Online campaigner Montgomery Toms chatting with Restore MP Rupert Lowe in Portcullis House this afternoon.
LEADING FROM THE FRONT: Lib Dem MP Luke Taylor was this afternoon top of the leaderboard for the armed forces exercise bike challenge in Portcullis House. The current runner-up is Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Commentator Fraser Nelson on Substack with lessons from the U.S. midterm results for Andy Burnham and Nigel Farage. He says Burnham “ought to be alarmed” about swing voters willing to back whoever promises change, as he gears up to deliver another decade-long plan kicking fundamental reform long into the future. “Voters want action now,” Nelson writes. “And if results don’t emerge, they have never been more willing to try — or even go back to — the other guys.”
And the lessons for Nige: “Earlier this year I wrote in The Times that Nigel Farage’s crypto greed was in a Berlusconi-style format where a populist leader openly enriches himself and his base don’t mind,” Nelson writes. “In the midterms, we see Americans mind about the way Trump and his family have enriched themselves while in office. The sense of shame was falling from politics, I wrote. But a sense of voter disgust, it seems, is not. Some 88pc of Americans mention corruption as their a concern when it was an option in a Fox News poll. Farage himself has never recovered from the disclosure about his secret £5m crypto gift.”
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Mixed bean chili with coriander and spring onion rice; cheese and chive burger with red onion marmalade and rocket; salmon poke bowl with rice, avocado, cucumber, edamame beans, mango, cherry tomatoes and soya dressing … The Debate: Roasted pepper tortilla with cannellini bean and zucchini stew plus garlic aioli; chicken katsu with rice, pickled ginger and spring onions; cajun king prawn taco with red cabbage and mango salad, guacamole and sour cream … Terrace Cafeteria: Ham, olive and mascarpone pizza; steak and ale pie with mash and gravy; mushroom, celeriac and onion stroganoff with rice, beetroot and gherkin … River Restaurant: Soy or lamb lahmacun with chips and salad; brawn bao buns with pickled vegetables, gochujang mayonnaise, and Asian coleslaw.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Nov. 4, 1924 the first-ever Labour Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald resigned. He would return to the office five years later. On the same day in 2008, Barack Obama became the first African American to be elected U.S. president. And in 2024, the government channeled Nick Clegg and hiked tuition fees for the first time in eight years.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
THANKS TO: My editor Annabelle Dickson, reporter Isabel Loubser and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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