Lions vs Bills betting preview: Best bets for Thursday Night Football - USA Today
So far, the NFL primetime slate has offered us Patriots-Seahawks, 49ers-Rams, Cowboys-Giants and Broncos-Chiefs.
That continues in Week 2 with the Lions visiting the Bills in a potential Super Bowl preview and the first regular season game at Buffalo’s new Highmark Stadium.
Opening week reinforced something we already knew: Both teams can pile up points. Their defenses gave us reason to expect a few in return.
Buffalo scored 36 points against a Houston defense considered one of the best in football. Detroit reached 31 in an overtime escape of New Orleans. Both games finished with more than 60 total points.
Josh Allen accounted for 357 yards and four touchdowns in the opener and showed immediate chemistry with new top target DJ Moore, who caught five passes for 100 yards and a score.
That’s a difficult follow-up assignment for a Lions secondary missing safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Tyler Shough just threw for a Week 1-high 410 yards against Detroit.
Maybe Shough is better than we thought. He isn’t Allen.
The good news for the Lions? Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jahmyr Gibbs can attack a Bills run-defense that ranked among the league’s worst last season. He carried a career-high 29 times for 156 yards against the Saints and added 30 yards on five catches.
If the Bills do find an answer for Gibbs, Jared Goff has other ways to move the ball. Amon-Ra St. Brown drew 14 targets last week.
You read that right: 54.5 points, up from roughly 52.5 at open.
It’s a big number. I still want the over.
Buffalo averaged 7.9 yards per play while scoring 36 against Houston. Detroit scored 31 despite going most of the second-half without a point, then watched New Orleans erase a 21-point deficit and force overtime.
Allen now faces a secondary Shough picked apart. Gibbs faces a defense that allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game last season. Neither offense needs every matchup to break its way to keep scoring.
Goff doesn’t have to win a passing duel with Allen, and James Cook doesn’t have to run all over Detroit’s front. Each offense has enough elsewhere to create problems if a defense commits too much attention to one player.
The Lions’ banged-up offensive line and the short turnaround do give me pause, but they don’t change my pick. I’m jumping on the total before kickoff.
Gibbs doesn’t need another 186-yard game to clear this line. He needs 120, and Detroit has given him two ways to get there.
With David Montgomery out of the picture and Isiah Pacheco injured, Gibbs accounted for 34 of the Lions’ 37 running back touches against the Saints. The other three went to Sione Vaki.
Dan Campbell has said he intends to monitor Gibbs’ carries, especially after such a heavy workload on a short week. That’s worth considering. So is Detroit’s offensive line: Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller missed practice earlier this week, while Juice Scruggs was limited.
But fewer carries wouldn’t necessarily sink the bet. Gibbs caught all five of his targets last week, and he should remain involved in the passing game if Buffalo builds a lead.
To be fair, the Bills allowed only 3.5 yards per carry to Texans running backs in Week 1. That’s considerably better than their 2025 form, if it proves sustainable.
Asking them to contain Gibbs for four quarters is another test entirely.
Allen, Gibbs, St. Brown and Moore all have the involvement to match this game’s scoring potential.
Moore drew eight targets in his Bills debut, and St. Brown saw 14 in Detroit’s opener. Neither needs a touchdown to make an impact.
Dalton Kincaid is especially interesting after catching five passes for 130 yards against the Texans. Saints tight ends totaled 87 yards and two TDs on a whopping 15 targets versus the Lions.
Fellow tight end Sam LaPorta had a quieter opener — five catches for 48 yards — but his eight targets kept him firmly involved.
Cook remains a strong play despite a modest game in Houston.
Jameson Williams brings more week-to-week volatility, though his nine targets opposite the Saints are reason to stay patient.
Some say you can’t win your fantasy week on Thursday, but you can lose it.
With this many options, you might actually be able to start celebrating before Sunday.
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