Lawyer warns against saying 2027 poll outcome already decided - Punch Newspapers

Human rights lawyer and United States Secretary of State Awardee on International Religious Freedom, Kola Alapinni, has cautioned against interpreting insecurity, vote-buying and alleged influence over election logistics as evidence that the outcome of the 2027 presidential election has already been determined. Alapinni made the submission while challenging The Economist’s assessment of factors that could shape the 2027 election in a Monday statement titled, “A Forecast Is Not a Verdict: Why The Economist Misreads 2027.” The Economist, in an October 1 report titled, “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” identified incumbency, opposition fragmentation, religion, voter turnout and political cynicism as factors that could work in President Bola Tinubu’s favour despite dissatisfaction with his administration. But Alapinni argued that the magazine had turned current political conditions into assumptions about the eventual outcome of the election. “A forecast is not a verdict,” he wrote, maintaining that the political dynamics of the 2023 election should not automatically be projected onto 2027. Alapinni particularly questioned The Economist’s assessment that opposition fragmentation could provide a structural advantage for the incumbent. He acknowledged that the inability of major opposition figures to form a single ticket could benefit the ruling party, but said the political situation remained fluid ahead of the election. “The Economist’s error is to treat the absence of a coalition today as proof that none can be punished into existence by January,” he wrote.See more Punch stories on Google.Add Punch on Google The lawyer also disputed the suggestion that religious identity would necessarily determine voting patterns in the North and Middle Belt. Photo collage of Sowore, Obi, Atiku and Tinubu. He cited The Economist’s reference to polling by SBM Intelligence which, according to him, showed Tinubu trailing Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in Borno. “Low expectations are not consent,” Alapinni wrote, arguing that insecurity and economic hardship could instead influence voter behaviour. He said developments in the Middle Belt, particularly in Plateau and Benue states, also required a more nuanced assessment than one based largely on religious identity. According to him, insecurity, displacement and disruption to farming communities could influence both voting behaviour and access to polling units, with some affected communities potentially unable to participate fully in the election. 2027: Ogun CityBoy movement targets 2m votes for Tinubu, backs Yayi  Adeboye prayed for me, says Sowore after RCCG visit Atiku condemns abduction of corps members, demands urgent rescue Alapinni further rejected the argument that political cynicism would necessarily result in voter apathy. “That misreads anger as apathy,” he wrote, arguing that Nigerians affected by insecurity, economic hardship and poor public services could see the election as an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction. He also identified electricity supply as an issue that could shape voters’ assessment of the administration. Alapinni questioned reported spending on solar power infrastructure at the Presidential Villa while many households and businesses continue to rely on generators or contend with unreliable electricity. “If he does not provide power, he should not be voted for. That is the test the magazine never sets,” he wrote. However, Alapinni acknowledged some of The Economist’s arguments, particularly its assessment of the advantages enjoyed by incumbents. He agreed that ruling parties could benefit from political machinery, financial resources and voter mobilisation, while opposition fragmentation could make it more difficult for challengers to consolidate their support. He also acknowledged that insecurity and vote-buying could affect the conduct of the 2027 election, but cautioned against treating such risks as evidence that the outcome had already been determined. “Influence over logistics and security agencies is a real risk. It is not proof that INEC will write a result,” he wrote. Alapinni concluded that incumbency remained an advantage but should not be confused with public consent. “A forecast that the disliked incumbent may survive is a statement about cash, split votes, and unsafe roads. It is not a statement that the record has been accepted,” he wrote. He maintained that the eventual outcome would depend in significant part on whether Nigerians were able to participate in the election and exercise their franchise. “Neither camp should read this as arrival. A week is a long time in politics. It is not yet Uhuru,” Alapinni said. Samuel Omotere Samuel Omotere is an experienced journalist covering human interest stories, pop culture, and digital trends. He combines his background as a language graduate with a focus on sustainable digital storytelling.

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