John Ivison: Liberals ponder an early election as Poilievre confronts his Macbeth moment - National Post

There are few signs that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is making inroads with voters, John Ivison writes. Photo by Allison Young/The London Free Press/PostmediaArticle contentThe Conservative party is a “fractured mess,” according to one caucus member who volunteered the opinion to a CTV reporter Wednesday.

Few people (with the possible exception of leader Pierre Poilievre) will have been more distressed by the sense of incipient rebellion than Mark Carney’s political advisers.

I remain unconvinced that the prime minister plans to establish a political dynasty. He has repeatedly refused to confirm that he plans to lead the Liberal party into the next election. He is ambitious to get big things done. He knows he has to be in a position to enact his plans, which requires having a majority government. As I noted on Monday, the government is planning to introduce legislation to rein in labour disputes this fall. The consultative process began shortly after the Liberals acquired, by hook and by crook, their majority.

But Carney seems supremely uninterested in Parliament and likely views an election campaign as a distraction.

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The same could not be said for the political people around him. They are the kind of folks whose idea of a good night in is a box of Timbits and a copy of Hansard, and they are apparently convinced that an election in the next six months would be a terrific idea.

The most recent polling aggregated by 338 Canada estimates Liberal support at 46 per cent, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives. The seat projection on those numbers suggests the Liberals would have a 99 per cent chance at a majority and could win around 228 seats, compared to 78 for the Conservatives.

That projection would see Poilievre’s party lose 60 MPs. For caucus members contemplating the thought of him leading them into another campaign, the chance of an MP surviving is around 56 per cent — similar to that of a frontline infantry soldier at the Battle of the Somme.

On CTV, Regan Watts, a former adviser to Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty, said we are seeing the final scene in this Shakespearean tragedy. To extend that metaphor, defeat in the coming Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations byelection, as safe a Conservative seat as it gets in Ontario, would be like Birnam Wood arriving in Dunsinane — namely, the end of the play.

Larry Brock, the sitting MP will step down this Friday, and the prime minister must call a byelection within the next six months.