JD Vance is no longer ‘lame-duck’ Donald’s heir apparent - The Independent

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America went to war with Iran, hoping to bring about regime change in Tehran. A few months later, the only regime change has been in Washington DC.

Suddenly, and against almost all expectations, President Trump is being cruelly nicknamed himself for a change: now, he is “lame-duck Donald”, no longer in full control of the world around him, just like the Disney original.

As things stand, Mr Trump may not have his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, by his side for much longer. Mr Rubio clashed with Mr Trump during a previous run for the White House a decade ago, but has since reconciled himself sufficiently to serve as national security adviser and as a loyal secretary of state, albeit mostly sidelined from some key negotiations on Ukraine and Iran.

Which may prove just as well. Mr Rubio is now reportedly “on resignation watch”. Mr Rubio cannot realistically put himself forward to replace Mr Trump while he is still secretary of state, but being tied to the administration can only detract from any effort to present himself as his own man.

Mr Rubio is yet to dive off the sinking ship. Nonetheless, it is obvious that the Trump experiment has failed, the Trump era is over, and it is all his own fault.

No less an authority than vice-president JD Vance has said as much in a post on social media. Reflecting on the “bluenami” that swept through the United States this week, Mr Vance stated bluntly: “The reason we lost is the war.”

He didn’t need to mention who dragged America into the previously limited and private conflict between Israel and Iran. Mr Vance added, by way of self-protection, that the president had acknowledged this – which is correct, but Mr Trump has said he doesn’t regret his decision because he is disarming Iran of its nuclear capacity, a point that is at least debatable.

Whether Mr Trump would do it all again or not is irrelevant now that the war is dragging on and no one knows for sure whether the president will declare victory and withdraw without a deal – a clear defeat – or carry out his occasional threat to wipe Iran off the face of the earth.

With the spot price of a barrel of oil dropping around 15 per cent as the scale of the Democrats’ triumph became clear, the markets assume that the president will not, in the event, lash out but will be restrained by his own officials and what should prove a far more assertive Congress. One way or another, the war in Iran seems to be passing into history. About time.

The same cannot be said about the civil war that is beginning to erupt in the Republican Party. Mr Vance’s rapid intervention in the debate about the historic losses suffered on Terrible Tuesday – the worst midterms for a governing party since the post-Watergate backlash in 1974 – was a fairly naked attempt to avoid taking the blame for the ill-fated war and all the consequences for American households, farms and businesses that have followed.

It won’t work, even though it is an open secret that Mr Vance did indeed counsel caution during the probate discussions that preceded the decision to join Israel’s bombing campaign.

But Mr Vance cannot escape collective responsibility, and neither can he deny that he has stoutly defended the president on this and every other of the damaging policies the Trump administration has followed – from its war on DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion), to ICE brutality, to tariffs and the break with Nato allies in Europe. He has been as enthusiastic a gaslighter for Mr Trump as anyone in denying to the American people the hurt and sense of betrayal they have suffered this year.

The future of the post-Trump Republican Party is now more open than at any time since the January 6th insurrection in 2021 temporarily ended the Trump ascendancy. Mr Vance is no longer the heir apparent and, as noted, Mr Rubio also suffers from his immersion in Trumpworld. The two men will almost certainly contest the nomination of their party for the presidential contest in 2028.

By the sounds of things, they will be joined by Ron DeSantis, shortly to end his term as governor of Florida. He has already poured scorn on the Republicans’ midterm campaign. To Mr DeSantis, there was too much gaslighting; issues such as trans rights were a diversion, and the scare tactics against the Democrats failed to resonate even with Maga-inclined voters.

After the terrible results on Tuesday, all previous assumptions about the Republican succession can be set aside. The forthcoming primaries will be open to a wide range of candidates in a way not seen since Mr Trump came from outside to snatch the nomination in 2016.

Without a shared, if sometimes grudging, fealty to Mr Trump’s shifting whims, there is little to unite the American right. Extreme isolationists, libertarians, conservatives, neo-cons, the religious right, the Freedom Caucus and various other factions laying claim to the Maga mantle must now slug it out for supremacy while disagreeing, sometimes violently, about not much at all.

All the latent divisions and personal rivalries suppressed during Donald Trump’s leadership will soon be out in the open – and it won’t be pretty.