It’s midterm election day in the U.S. and Canada is watching and waiting - Toronto Star

In today's First Up: When you can expect a community mailbox from Canada Post and the new Leafs jersey.

U.S. President Donald Trump departs after delivering remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Nov. 2, 2026 in Washington, DC.

Good morning. This is the Tuesday, Nov. 3 edition of First Up, the Star’s daily morning digest. Sign up to get it earlier each day, in your inbox.

When we talk about the often-dour mood in the city and how technology has isolated us, I think it’s important we also acknowledge the 50,000 or so people who showed up to party on Church Street on Halloween night. The mayor is suggesting we might need to look at security there for next year because of overcrowding. But it’s remarkable how enthusiastically people in this city seize every opportunity for a collective public celebration.

American voters go to the polls Tuesday for midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and several governors’ races. In a speech during the dying days of the campaign, President Donald Trump suggested he had the “concept” of a deal on trade with Canada, and that it would feature building the Keystone XL pipeline through several U.S. states at Canada’s expense. In Allan Woods’ analysis, the rhetorical move makes perfect sense for a president who has antagonized Canada, because the pipeline would be popular in states his party needs to win.

TORONTO. Community Post boxes are coming and some are already in place in the 416 area like this one in a new development on Clonmore Drive. .(R.J. Johnston/Toronto Star) R.J. Johnston/Toronto Star

A volunteer wears an election earring during a canvassing kick-off event with US Democratic Senate Maine candidate Troy Jackson.

The last time Donald Trump lost an election, I was working as the Star’s Washington bureau chief, so I got to see the reaction up close. You may have heard about some of the highlights, like the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol — I was on the steps of the Senate side while Trump supporters smashed windows and chanted about hanging Nancy Pelosi and Mike Pence. Trump is usually hard to predict, but it doesn’t take Nostradamus to understand that he never reacts well to losing. And with the U.S. midterm elections Tuesday, it appears he may be on the verge of losing again. I wonder how Canadians feel about that.

One of the things I had to get used to during my time covering the U.S. was a constant feeling of being a powerless observer. When you write about the city or the province for the Toronto Star, the mayor and premier read what you’re writing; they return your calls; your stories shape the impressions of the citizens who elect them. But in Washington, the power brokers may or may not know what the Toronto Star is, and they rarely ever acknowledge its existence. The readers of my stories generally could not vote in American elections. We were witnessing historic events with no real ability to influence the course of them. Which isn’t to say they didn’t affect us — as we’ve been vividly reminded, events in American politics can shape and reshape Canada’s politics and culture quite dramatically and suddenly. We’re relegated to the role of spectator, but the results could make us victims or victors. It’s a peculiarly powerless interest.

So it’s kind of interesting, suddenly, to see Canada become a plotline in Trump’s midterm election strategy. As Allan Woods wrote, Trump’s sudden suggestion that there may be a “concept” of a trade deal with Canada, and a revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, is a last-minute election play. Unfortunately, it is not our first appearance in the season’s rhetoric: Trump’s ambassador has been suggesting Canadians have been interfering in the U.S. election, as Éric Blais writes, transparently laying the groundwork to blame us if results don’t go Trump’s way.

It makes watching the results of Tuesday’s midterms an even stranger experience than usual. Many Canadians will hope for a result that makes Trump more favourably inclined — or forces Trump to give more favourable terms — to Canada. But what is that result? If his opponents win control of Congress, is that likely to defang some of his trade and security aggression? Or will it provoke him to lash out at us (just as people are suggesting he’ll punish others around the world)? What are you watching for, fearing, or hoping for as the results come in tonight? Let us know in the comments section here.

Robert Stairs poses for a photograph with a scale model of a sundial at his home in Peterborough.

Readers are curious to see the results of Tuesday’s American midterm elections. They’re sharing their anxiety about potential consequences for Canada, and predicting Trump’s reaction:

“Of course Canada will be blamed. They’ve been building the narrative for months. And when it’s over, we will be hit with another round of tariffs as punishment.” — Jeri

“I suspect what we will see Trump do in his final two years is focus on finding more ways to enrich him and his family, create more places and things that honour his name, and sell pardons like a food vendor in the local night market.” — Robert

Today’s big number is 50,000. That’s the number of kilometres Karl Bushby walked — 31,000 miles — in a trip all the way from Chile to England, in which he never got on a plane or boat or train or car, using only his feet to propel himself across four continents and 30 countries. He left in 1998. After all that, he’s back at his mother’s house.  

Thanks for starting your day with us. If you enjoy First Up, please share it with a friend. And let us know what you think of the changes we’ve made, and what you’d like to see. Email firstup@thestar.ca. I’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.