It's almost the end of September. Where are all the hurricanes?

Hurricane Melissa, seen here, devastated Jamaica in 2025. So far, there have been no hurricanes in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. (NOAA)Social SharingAs of this writing, there have been only six named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, and most of them only lasted a couple of days. So what's going on? Where's all the hurricane activity?

"Normally we have to blame like four or five different things, but this year, I think we really can pretty much put all the blame on El Niño," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. 

It turns out the "super" El Niño that is under way is putting a clamp on Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Niño is part of a natural cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involving water in the central Pacific Ocean as well as atmospheric winds. 

When the water becomes 0.5 C warmer than average over a particular time frame, it indicates an El Niño event. Water that is -0.5 C cooler than average indicates a La Niña event. The repercussions of these oscillations can be felt around the world.

During a typical El Niño, an amplified polar jet stream often leads to warmer than normal temperatures in much of western Canada during the winter season. (CBC News)And right now, there is an El Niño advisory, with several models suggesting this could be a historic event.

"The anomalies are getting so strong that we might see stronger than 2.4 C anomaly, which is our historical record that was set back in 1982 and 1983 winter. And we're predicting possibly 2.6 to 2.7 C anomalies," said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

"So, a very strong event, [with a] 75 per cent chance of being historical. We have over 90 per cent chance of it being very strong, which is the highest in our category here at NOAA."

I’ve tracked El Niño for years. I’ve never seen this before

The quiet season hasn't exactly been a surprise to forecasters. In May, NOAA forecast eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes. Its August forecast lowered those ranges to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes.

How is it that what happens thousands of kilometres away in the middle of the Pacific Ocean influences what happens in the Atlantic?

Long explained that when the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal, they tend to create vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, with strong winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker winds in the lower atmosphere. 

"It kind of destroys the hurricane structure that we like to see," Long said. "Hurricanes are very vertical beings."

Tropical Storm Fay (right of centre) is seen in the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026. The storm came very close to being the first named hurricane of the season. (NASA/EOSDIS)The shear has been so strong that this quiet Atlantic hurricane season could be one for the record books.

"Typically, by the time you get to, say, mid-October, the season is really starting to wind down," Klotzbach said. "So, to use a baseball quote on these — Yogi Berra used to say, 'It's getting late early.'"

He said it's unlikely that we'll suddenly see an uptick, but we might still see one or two hurricanes form.

"I'd be surprised if we end up a season with zero hurricanes, but probably the odds of getting anything substantial out of the deep tropics are pretty low."

However, there's still a chance that one could develop in the warm Gulf of Mexico.

"The Caribbean still has lots of wind shear, so possible formations there are probably low, but in the Gulf of [Mexico] we are seeing less wind shear," Long said. "So there is a possibility for some formation there or off the east coast of the U.S."

But El Niño tends to have the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean, creating heightened hurricane activity.

To date, there have been 16 named storms in the Pacific, with another likely to form after publication. 

The Atlantic basin almost got its first hurricane this past weekend.

According to meteorologist and hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Tropical Storm Fay, which formed as a tropical depression on Saturday, reached winds of 112 km/h, falling just short of the Category 1 hurricane wind speeds of 119 km/h.

The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale gives you an idea of what a Category 5 storm means. (CBC News)Interestingly, Fay formed significantly farther north than where most Atlantic hurricanes form. Most form around 20 degrees north latitude, while Fay formed around 32 degrees north.

While this El Niño is responsible for the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic, it's important to note that there have been a few short-lived tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have impacted communities along the coast, including in Louisiana.

This El Niño is forecast to peak in November or December, though it will persist into 2027. What that means for next year's hurricane season is still unknown.

"Typically, the year after an El Niño, you have no El Niño and a warmer Atlantic. So we can't say for sure that it's going to be a busy season next year," Klotzbach said.

Based in Toronto, Nicole covers all things science for CBC News. As an amateur astronomer, Nicole can be found looking up at the night sky appreciating the marvels of our universe. She is the editor of the Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada and the author of several books. In 2021, she won the Kavli Science Journalism Award from the American Association for the Advancement of Science for a Quirks and Quarks audio special on the history and future of Black people in science. You can send her story ideas at nicole.mortillaro@cbc.ca.