Inside the secret race to become NATO’s next top general

BRUSSELS — NATO’s most senior commanders elect a new leader on Saturday in a consequential vote that will help shape how the alliance prepares for a potential Russian incursion and navigates persisting transatlantic tensions.

The alliance’s 32 chiefs of defense staff will elect a new chair of NATO’s most senior military body, the military committee, in Copenhagen in a hush-hush ballot — and choose between two candidates: Germany’s Gen. Carsten Breuer and Canada’s Gen. Jennie Carignan.

“NATO is in a very decisive moment and in a demanding spot — there’s a large conventional war raging in Europe and NATO is transforming itself again into a more robust, more European NATO,” said Janne Kuusela, Permanent Secretary at the Finnish defense ministry. “That of course means … we need the best possible individuals to fill these positions.”

Although little-known, NATO’s military committee is the alliance’s most senior military authority, with the chair expected to give honest military advice to allies — helping assess the feasibility, financing and capabilities of operations. They oversee dozens of working groups of NATO military staff, and broker consensus on formulating military advice.

The position is a “highly complex role,” said Eleonora Russell, the spokesperson of former chair Adm. Rob Bauer, because it requires simultaneously gaining the trust of both the military and the political leadership across the alliance — and not taking sides. 

Such a role is particularly challenging today given enduring transatlantic tensions, she said, and important as sensitive talks on NATO’s next four-year war planning cycle will kick off in October. “The trick is you have to be … an extremely good listener,” Russell said, “but then you have to also have a very strong backbone.”

Germany’s Breuer, who Berlin announced as a candidate in February, is seen as the front-runner, according to one NATO diplomat and two European national security officials, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive matter.

Berlin is now Europe’s leading defense spender, the officials said, and the U.S. has previously nudged Germany toward leadership roles in the alliance as it seeks to reduce its military engagement on the continent. Strained bilateral ties between Ottawa and Washington might also make Carignan’s case more difficult, the officials said.

That support was on display in Washington on Jul. 23, when Breuer briefed Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby on Germany’s new military strategy. Colby later called the strategy “historic” and “highly laudable” and said Germany was positioning itself as “a key leader of Europe’s conventional defense” in a post on X.

“Both candidates are exceptional military leaders,” said another military official, who nonetheless wondered whether it was more important today to have a European in charge given the alliance’s push for the continent to take charge of its own defense, dubbed NATO 3.0.

Breuer’s pitch for the job has included its leadership role on NATO 3.0, the officials said, as well as the four-star general’s strong existing relationships with his counterparts since he took over as Germany’s chief of defense in 2023.

Carignan, Ottawa’s top general since 2024, has focused her campaign on reinvigorating the role of the military committee, the officials said, and signaling enduring transatlantic unity inside NATO. That comes as the alliance has repeatedly been rocked by feuds with U.S. President Donald Trump since he retook office last year.

Germany’s defense ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Canada’s defense ministry said Carignan’s “candidacy reflects Canada’s enduring commitment to NATO and to strengthening collective defence and transatlantic security.”

Out of sight, out of mind

Yet the campaign is enigmatic and behind closed doors — all the way down to the blind vote.

That’s because “the whole point of this is for this to be a military group of professionals who trust each other,” Russell said, since “on the military level you need to have boundless loyalty, and if you know exactly who voted for you and who didn’t, then you lose that.”

To ensure that loyalty, the vote count will stop once a majority — or 17 votes — is reached, leaving the real result unknown, one NATO official said. Adding to the mystery, some chiefs of defense are under strict instructions by their ministries to vote for one candidate, the official said, while others can make up their own minds. 

Behind the scenes, the candidates have lobbied their counterparts through letters, face-to-face pitches with NATO ambassadors, at security summits and with phone calls to ministries, said the three officials. 

Since Berlin nominated Breuer, he has been a frequent visitor to NATO capitals. His recent stops have included Albania, North Macedonia, the U.S., Slovenia, Latvia and Estonia — all in the past two months. Breuer has used trips and meetings with fellow military leaders to make the case for Germany’s candidacy, said a person familiar with the effort.

The next military committee chair is expected to take over from Italy’s Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone next July, the same NATO official said.