How Musharraf's rule fell despite November 3 ‘emergency' - Geo News

How could a powerful ruler not protect his own government despite imposing an ‘emergency’ 19 years ago, on this very day, November 3, 2007? He had not only usurped the superior judiciary but also banned top TV programme anchors and political activities. It was not an ‘emergency-plus’ but rather a ‘coup-plus’, as no ruler who had come to power by removing an elected prime minister had ever before tried to save his rule through another extraordinary action.

But, on the same night the then powerful Supreme Court’s seven-member bench declared his order as ‘extra-constitutional’. Here is the inside story of how Musharraf planned to remain in power for another 10 years but the year actually turned out to be fatal for his powerful rule.

Some well-connected sources close to the late Gen Pervez Musharraf revealed that a ‘secret report’ submitted to him in January 2007 made him ‘overconfident’ and a bit arrogant. The report, based on a ‘survey’, revealed that some of his actions and decisions had pushed his popularity rating to 70 per cent.

Five major decisions and actions contributed to his fall despite the imposition of emergency. First, he sacked former chief justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry on March 9, 2007. Second, the May 12 bloodshed in Karachi, which occurred in an attempt to stop the deposed CJP’s procession. Third, the Lal Masjid operation, which led to a rise in suicide bombings across Pakistan. Fourth, he ignored American advice against imposing emergency, as doing so could jeopardise the deal with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Finally, he had not the slightest idea that he was losing popularity even among his own ‘constituency’, as he was kept in the dark about ground realities.

The January report had also suggested that, in order to prolong his rule at least until 2017, Musharraf should mend fences with one of the two popular parties, namely the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). His then ally, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), had failed to meet expectations and could not weaken his arch-rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by deposed prime minister Nawaz Sharif. At the time, Nawaz was in Saudi Arabia under a 10-year deal with the Musharraf government, which had sent him into exile after former president Rafiq Tarrar condoned his life imprisonment.

The myth of 70 per cent popularity was not different from 2001 ‘referendum’ like Gen Zia-ul-Haq’s 1984 referendum which these ‘military ruler’s won by over 90 per cent against the ground realities.

What followed the January report was the first ‘secret meeting’ outside Pakistan between President Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Sources said Musharraf ignored suggestions from some of his colleagues that he should at least take PML-Q leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain into his confidence. Interestingly, the meeting took place months after Benazir and Nawaz had signed the Charter of Democracy (CoD), an accord that had made the then ruling elite nervous.

The meeting was just the beginning of the final agreement under the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), under which all cases against former president Asif Ali Zardari and other political opponents were to be withdrawn. However, the NRO arrangement was subject to a condition that Benazir would not return to Pakistan before the general elections, which were scheduled for December 2007 but were later postponed to early 2008 following her assassination.

Gen Musharraf and Benazir’s ‘deal’ fell apart after he surprised her by imposing emergency rule in the country, following a series of Supreme Court decisions that he perceived as threatening his position. The move was followed by another Provisional Constitution Order (PCO) for judges, resulting in the removal of CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry, who had been restored by the apex court in July 2007 after it declared Musharraf’s March 9, 2007, action against him “illegal and unconstitutional”.

A very well-connected source close to Musharraf said, “Surprisingly, the former president even ignored the advice of an American official not to impose an emergency, which the official said would not be acceptable to Benazir Bhutto.”

Earlier, following the January report and his meeting with Benazir, some of Musharraf’s actions showed signs of overconfidence and arrogance. One such action was the sacking of sitting Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. The latter’s refusal to follow the president’s ‘order’ to quit as CJP triggered a countrywide lawyers’ movement. Strangely, even some sitting Supreme Court judges attended an anti-Musharraf convention organised in support of the deposed CJP. “It was clear that all was not well within Musharraf’s own powerful constituency, but he thought otherwise,” the source disclosed.

The sources said Musharraf and some of his close aides were confident that the Supreme Court would not reinstate the former CJP, and that an intelligence report had also suggested the same outcome. However, in July 2007, the apex court unanimously ruled in favour of the deposed chief justice and reinstated him. It was a shocking verdict for Gen Musharraf and perhaps marked the beginning of the end of his otherwise powerful nine-year rule.

The March 9 action by Musharraf was followed by the May 12 violence in Karachi, when nearly 80 people were killed in an attempt to stop Iftikhar Chaudhry’s procession. That same evening, Musharraf made a ‘victory sign’, appearing to celebrate the action. Even then, he failed to realise that some people within his own inner circle did not support his actions.

Some other factors that ultimately contributed to his downfall included his visit to Agra, India, where he had almost agreed to sign an accord with the then Indian prime minister.

The sources disclosed that two or three days before the imposition of emergency, the former president had sought their views on the possibility of declaring one. “I opposed it, and some of his close political allies were also against any harsh action. However, a few backed him and supported measures such as imposing emergency rule and banning the media,” one of the sources said.

So, what actually followed November 3? First, Benazir Bhutto, who had returned to Dubai after the suicide attack on her procession on October 18, 2007, in which more than 200 people were killed, returned to Pakistan after the declaration of emergency. She accused Musharraf and some of his close aides of trying to kill her. She was assassinated less than two months later, on December 27, 2007. These developments weakened the country's most powerful military ruler. Musharraf stepped down as army chief and was replaced by Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. The army subsequently announced that it would remain ‘neutral’ in the 2008 elections. Finally, President Musharraf decided to step down, perhaps against his own will, as was evident from his ‘farewell’ speech.

So, 2007 proved fatal to his otherwise smooth nine-year rule, as even emergency rule, control over the media and judiciary, and a ban on political activities could not save his regime.

The writer is a columnist and analyst of Geo, Jang and The News. He can be reached on X at @MazharAbbsGEO