H-1B Visa Fee Could Cost US $38 Billion Over 10 Years: Tech Firms - Newsweek

The Trump administration’s proposed $103,265 H-1B visa fee could cost the Treasury as much as $38 billion over 10 years if applications fall significantly, according to a new study.

The estimate comes from the CCIA Research Center, the research arm of the Computer & Communications Industry Association, which represents technology and communications companies.

The analysis challenges the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) assumption that employers would continue filing about 85,000 cap-subject H-1B petitions annually after the proposed fee takes effect. DHS estimates the fee would generate about $8.8 billion a year in revenue.

The H-1B visa program allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire foreign professionals in specialty occupations that typically require at least a bachelor's degree or equivalent experience. The program is widely used in the technology, engineering, finance, health care, consulting and higher-education sectors, with companies often relying on it to fill positions requiring specialized skills.

Supporters, including many business groups, universities and technology firms, argue the program helps address talent shortages and strengthens U.S. competitiveness. Critics, including MAGA supporters and immigration restriction groups, say it can be used to undercut wages, displace American workers or increase reliance on lower-cost foreign labor.

CCIA's analysis does not predict that applications will fall by a specific amount. Instead, it models four possible responses by employers to the proposed fee and calculates the effect on federal receipts under each scenario. It also factors in estimated tax revenue that would not be collected if fewer foreign workers were hired.

The study found the government would collect more from the fee than it would lose in related tax revenue only if filings fell by less than about one-quarter. Under scenarios in which filings decline by roughly 36% to 38%, the report estimates federal receipts would be between $32 billion and $38 billion lower over 10 years. A more severe scenario projects a reduction of up to $142 billion.

"DHS should reconsider an H-1B fee whose revenue projections depend on assuming no significant reduction in applications despite creating six-figure cost increases per application," Trevor Wagener, CCIA’s chief economist and director of its research center, said in a news release.

In response to the findings, Lauren Bis, a White House spokesperson, told Newsweek that the new fee was about "putting the American worker first" by protecting them from being replaced by foreign labor.

“The $103,000 fee discourages companies from spamming the system and focuses the program on its purpose of providing truly highly specialized temporary labor," Bis said. "There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration’s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential.”

CCIA used DHS's proposed fee and revenue assumptions as a starting point. The department's proposal assumes 85,000 annual cap-subject petitions, based on the 65,000 regular H-1B cap and 20,000 additional visas available to beneficiaries with qualifying U.S. advanced degrees.

The report then modeled lower filing volumes, drawing in part on registration declines following a separate $100,000 payment imposed on certain H-1B petitions in 2025.

It also incorporated projected federal tax receipts associated with H-1B workers who would be employed in the United States.

Because the analysis includes both fee revenue and projected tax revenue, its estimates measure overall federal receipts rather than fee collections alone.

DHS proposed the $103,265 charge in August as an additional fee on cap-subject H-1B petitions, on top of existing immigration fees. The department says the measure is intended to help recover the costs of administering the legal immigration system across multiple federal agencies.

The agency's proposal assumes employers will continue filing about 85,000 cap-subject petitions annually despite the new charge. DHS also argues that employers using the H-1B program generally have the resources to absorb the added cost.

The proposal is separate from a $100,000 payment requirement imposed under a September 2025 presidential proclamation signed by President Donald Trump. The measure applied to certain H-1B beneficiaries outside the United States who needed to enter the country to activate an approved H-1B petition. Trump extended the policy for another year in a September 18, 2026 proclamation, with the White House saying the restriction will remain in effect through September 21, 2027.

It comes amid a string of changes to the H-1B program under the Trump administration. Federal officials have adopted a weighted H-1B selection system that gives greater preference to higher-paid positions, expanded certain biometric and security fees to additional H-1B extension filings by large employers, and recently proposed eliminating a rule that allows some foreign workers to remain in the United States for up to 60 days after losing their jobs. Administration officials say the changes are intended to prioritize higher-skilled, higher-wage workers and strengthen oversight of the program, while critics argue they could increase costs and uncertainty for employers and foreign workers.

The White House says more than 700 H-1B petitions have been filed with the $100,000 payment since last year.

The fee has been challenged in court. A federal judge in Massachusetts vacated the government's implementation of the measure in June, and the administration appealed.

The proposed $103,265 fee relies on separate legal authority and remains subject to the federal rulemaking process.

Ultimately, both the administration's revenue projections and CCIA's estimates depend on how employers respond to the fee.