Gulf and ‘Blue Wave’ - Semafor

The anticipated blue wave in the US midterm elections turned into a tsunami, and its political ripples will reach the Gulf.

The election was a rebuke to President Donald Trump over rising living costs, the Iran war, and his conduct in office. But whether that makes him less inclined to escalate the Middle East conflict is another matter. As Amos Hochstein, a former senior Biden administration adviser, put it in Abu Dhabi this week, Congress can control budgets, hold hearings, and demand answers — but “the president of the United States does foreign policy.”

Gulf states face two risks. Trump, frustrated by domestic constraints, could use more force against Iran to try to secure his legacy. At the same time, Democrats could use their congressional powers to expose uncomfortable details of deals between Gulf investors and the president’s relatives and associates, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s family.

There is also some upside, though. The Gulf barely featured in the election, and voters’ demand for lower prices aligns with regional efforts to end the war and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf monarchies have the luxury of planning decades ahead without the nuisance of elections. This allows them to build deep, institutional relationships in Washington that span both parties. Sovereign wealth funds deployed billions during the Obama and Biden administrations, and some of today’s AI cooperation was negotiated before Trump returned to office.

One election issue could even favor the Gulf: As US voters embrace data center NIMBYism, Gulf states can offer cheap energy, empty land, and faster permits.

Finally, the Gulf’s human rights records weren’t a campaign issue, unlike Israel’s war in Gaza and its treatment of Palestinians, which have attracted bipartisan criticism. But this issue could resurface if investigations into Trump’s circle put Gulf connections under scrutiny.