From the rent crisis to Trump: 5 things that will shape Spain’s snap election

Spaniards have eight weeks to decide whether Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez should extend his eight-year tenure, or make way for a right-wing administration that could dramatically change the national trajectory — not least because it could include the far-right Vox party.

Here, POLITICO breaks down the main factors that will shape the Nov. 29 snap election.

The immediate spark may have been nationwide housing protests, but the race will also be shaped by Spain’s political extremes, the unresolved migrant crisis in Ceuta and geopolitics in the age of Trump.

Here are five things to watch.

Kingmakers on the extremes

Spain’s two largest parties — Sánchez’s center-left Socialist Party and Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s center-right People’s Party — are expected to get roughly the same results as they did when voters went to the polls in 2023, with both falling short of a governing majority. That means the next government will be led by whoever can cobble together the largest parliamentary alliance.

Polls put the People’s Party at around 34 percent, ahead of Sánchez’s Socialists, who are backed by 26% of voters. PP leader Feijóo says he is comfortable governing with the far-right Vox party, which is polling at around 18 percent, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. The PP already governs alongside Vox in several regions.

Sánchez’s hopes of reelection hinge on pulling off the same unlikely feat he achieved three years ago, when he managed to form a parliamentary majority with far-left, regional and separatist forces.

This time around, that option appears to be out of reach as a result of the collapse of the country’s left-wing political forces. Sumar — the junior partner in Sánchez’s coalition government — has plummeted in the polls and is currently leaderless.

Health Minister Mónica García is among the frontrunners to head the new alliance, which plans to present itself as the “Broad Front” later this month. It will be up to its eventual leader to try to forge a viable left-wing electoral alliance with bitter rivals Podemos, as well as big personalities like housing activist and former Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.

Appetite for Vox

Over the past decade, the far-right Vox party has evolved from a fringe group into a major political force — and, now, a plausible coalition partner in a national PP government.

In contrast to when national elections were last held in Spain, Vox has a clear track record of teaming up with the PP at the local and regional levels. The two parties currently govern together in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León and Andalusia, and previously ruled in Valencia and Murcia.

Within those governments, Vox has successfully pressured the PP into adopting tougher migration policies and denouncing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s Green Deal. Some PP-Vox governments have also replaced policies on violence against women with a broader “intra-family” framing that waters down the gender-specific nature of such crimes, and rolled back LGBTQ+ protections.

In 2023, Sánchez used the prospect of a PP-Vox government to spook voters into backing his candidacy, but it looks less likely that strategy can pack such a punch this time. Vox has expanded its political representation in several elections over the past three years, suggesting the party may no longer carry the same electoral stigma.

But the PP will nonetheless have to tread lightly. Although its clearest path to power involves a coalition with Vox, saying so may turn off moderate voters. The worse the center-right party performs, the more power its eventual far-right partners will have to determine policy.

The open wounds

There are two unresolved issues that could shake up the election: the Ceuta migration crisis and the ongoing corruption cases involving members of Sánchez’s inner circle.

Thousands of migrants remain in Ceuta after a mass surge that prompted major questions about Spain’s security readiness and its tense relationship with Morocco. While the recent housing protests have momentarily distracted voters, attention on the crisis could return as judicial investigations produce new findings detailing the government’s handling of the event.

King Felipe VI’s visit to Ceuta and Melilla next week could prompt a major diplomatic clash with Morocco, which claims the exclaves as its own and has warned that the visit would be a “provocation.” Any fresh influx of migrants into Ceuta would also increase focus on the unresolved crisis and reshape the electoral narrative around border security and national defense.

The focus of the campaign could also be derailed by the corruption scandals affecting the prime minister’s inner circle. Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, faces trial for alleged influence peddling and embezzlement. The trial date has not yet been set and is not expected to begin before the election.

Fresh revelations involving close Sánchez ally and former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who is under investigation for alleged influence peddling, criminal organization and document falsification, could prove costly. So, too, could findings linked to the investigation into the Socialist Party’s alleged plot to discredit the judiciary.

Both Gómez and Zapatero maintain their innocence.

The power of the protesters

Sánchez on Monday boasted that, during his time in office, Spain has become “the fastest-growing economy in the entire European Union, leading in job creation.”

But average citizens are not necessarily feeling the impact of Spain’s strong growth and record employment figures. Inflation has outpaced salary gains, leaving many households with little additional purchasing power as prices — and, most crucially, housing costs — surge.

Spain’s housing activists have succeeded in harnessing wider frustration over the cost of living and organizing massive demonstrations and protest encampments in nearly every major city.

The Spanish Tenants’ Union could play a key role in the election by either endorsing a party or undermining turnout by telling supporters to stay home.

The union’s spokesperson, Valeria Racu, told POLITICO her group wanted politicians to commit to enacting indefinite rental contracts, legally mandated rent reductions, an end to evictions and speculative purchases, and a major expansion of public housing by reclaiming homes held by banks and investment funds.

Parties that make those commitments stand to benefit from the protesters’ votes. If none do so, however, there could be a substantial drop in turnout as disillusioned voters stay home. Although polls show housing is a top concern for voters across the ideological spectrum, that scenario would likely be felt most among left-wing parties.

The Trump effect

Three decades ago, then-Agriculture Minister Jesús Posada told conservative Prime Minister José María Aznar that his campaign needed to be based “less on Syria, and more on [the Spanish region of] Soria.”

Elections in Spain are generally decided by local concerns, not foreign affairs. But polls show that Sánchez’s standing has risen when he has clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the conflicts in Gaza and Iran.

Meanwhile, Trump remains an awkward topic for the People’s Party. Its advocacy of a more traditionally Atlanticist, Washington-friendly foreign policy is hardly a crowd-pleaser in a country where recent POLITICO polling found that a majority of respondents — 51 percent — considered the U.S. to pose a “threat” to Europe.

Vox’s unabashedly pro-MAGA stance has also created tensions with parts of its electorate. The U.S.’s military operations have contributed to soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, hitting the party’s rural voters particularly hard. Trump’s feud with Pope Leo XIV has also raised eyebrows among its conservative Catholic supporters, while the president’s clash with his former ally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has irked some far-right supporters.

All politics may be local, but in the world of Trump, developments abroad can have major impact in Spain — and could well play a role in the election.