From friendly to 'delusional'

Pakistan's relationship with the Afghan Taliban has entered a dangerous new phase. For months, Islamabad has been warning the Taliban regime that it cannot allow Afghan territory to be used by terrorist groups targeting Pakistan. There have been diplomatic contacts, warnings, mediation efforts and repeated assurances. None of that appears to have worked. Pakistan is now relying increasingly on military force, carrying out strikes deep inside Afghanistan against what it says are terrorist hideouts and infrastructure. But perhaps more significant than the strikes themselves is the language coming out of Islamabad. The latest Corps Commanders Conference, chaired by Field Marshal Asim Munir on Friday, strongly backed the military's strategy. The statement issued by the ISPR, however, contained a phrase that perhaps best captures how far relations with Kabul have deteriorated. The military leadership referred to the "delusional Taliban leadership" and its main backer, India, as being responsible for the rise in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The choice of words was significant. The Taliban leadership was once seen by many in Pakistan as a potentially friendly government in Kabul. There was considerable optimism after the Taliban returned to power in August 2021 that Pakistan would finally have a government on its western border that understood its security concerns. That optimism has long disappeared. At a recent press conference, Pakistan's chief military spokesperson made another significant claim. He said a meeting held in Kandahar on August 26 involved representatives of terrorist groups who were directed to intensify attacks against Pakistan. The revelation comes at a particularly difficult time for Pakistan. September was the deadliest month in 12 years in terms of terrorist attacks and fatalities, according to security data cited by an Islamabad think tank. In the first nine months of this year, terrorist attacks were up 52 per cent compared with the same period last year. That raises a difficult question for Islamabad: is the current strategy actually achieving its objective? So far, there is little evidence that the pressure has produced the desired result. There are several possible explanations. The Taliban may not have the capacity to control these groups. It may be unwilling to take action against them. Or Kabul may believe that Pakistan's demands go too far. Whatever the reason, the relationship has reached a point where the old formula of engagement, diplomacy and pressure is no longer producing much. Pakistan has tried almost everything short of a sustained military confrontation. It facilitated talks with the Taliban, maintained direct contacts with its leadership and brought in Qatar and Türkiye to help bridge differences. But all in vain. Now, the question for Pakistan is no longer simply how to persuade the Taliban to act against the TTP. It is whether the Taliban leadership itself can still be relied upon as a partner. There is, at this stage, no official indication that Pakistan has decided to seek regime change in Afghanistan. But the increasingly hostile rhetoric and stepped-up military action are being closely watched by anti-Taliban forces inside Afghanistan. Some such forces have already increased attacks against the Taliban. That could open another, much more dangerous chapter in Afghanistan's long cycle of conflict. For Pakistan, there are no easy choices. Walking away from military pressure without securing action against the TTP could leave Islamabad facing an even bigger security problem. Continuing to strike inside Afghanistan risks a prolonged confrontation with the Taliban government. What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Pakistan-Taliban relations are unlikely to return to where they were after the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Pakistan now appears to be moving towards a much harder Afghan policy, one in which military pressure is no longer simply a tool of last resort, but an increasingly central part of its strategy. The question is where this road ultimately leads.