Friedrich Merz’s endgame: All the scenarios, rated

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the threat of being ousted as soon as this weekend, just 16 months after entering office promising an ambitious reform agenda and vowing to bring back German leadership in Europe.

Ahead of two key state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin this Sunday, where Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union risks painful defeats, senior party members are privately discussing whether Germany needs a so-called Kanzlertausch — a change of chancellor — to arrest a rapidly accelerating decline in support for the government.

Merz’s national popularity plummeted to just 14% this week, while a new poll shows his CDU/CSU conservative party alliance falling to an unprecedented low of just 18%.

That same poll shows the far-right Alternative for Germany leading with 29%. The AfD also finished first in a recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to winning an absolute majority, while Merz’s CDU lost more than half of its voter support.

European and international allies are watching with bewilderment as Germany — once a bastion of stability during the 16 years of Angela Merkel’s leadership — faces its second quick-fire change of leadership (Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz saw his ruling coalition collapse in November 2024).

Merz canceling his trip to the U.N. General Assembly next week threw the scale of his domestic crisis into sharp focus. “His presence is required in Berlin,” said a senior German official, as the chancellor fights for his political survival.

POLITICO analyzed five scenarios for how the German leadership tumult could unfold — and rated their likelihood.

1. Merz resigns lacking party support

The chancellor has convened a high-stakes meeting of his party’s leadership on Sunday at 5 p.m., which will coincide with the state election exit polls at 6 p.m. At that meeting, Merz reportedly wants to ask his party allies whether they still back him and his reform plans. If not, he wants to urge them to put forward the name of a potential successor.

By seeking the confrontation, Merz will try to exploit a weakness of his critics: There is no clear consensus on who should take over.

North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is frequently mentioned, but he has elections in his populous home state coming up in April — so the timing isn’t great for him. An alternative would be Markus Söder of the Christian-Social Union, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, but he isn’t short of critics. Other, less probable potential candidates are Hesse’s Minister President Boris Rhein (CDU) and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU).

However, should the elections Sunday be a total disaster for Merz’ conservatives — the party could even miss the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for the first time in any state election — frustration within the CDU/CSU could boil over and lead to broad calls for Merz to resign.

The showdown does not necessarily have to happen Sunday but could follow within the next days or weeks. Should Merz accept that fate, he could inform German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of his intention to step down. Steinmeier would then most likely ask him to remain in office in a caretaker function until a new chancellor is elected by parliament.

However, this ain’t easy: Any successor for Merz would need the votes of the CDU/CSU’s coalition partner, the Social Democrats, who would likely ask concessions in return — triggering a time-consuming renegotiation of the coalition treaty. It also means Merz could still remain in power for months and represent Germany on the international stage, for example in EU budget talks.

Adding to the complications, the coalition’s majority in the Bundestag is thin: There’s always a risk of defectors during the secret ballot, as happened to Merz himself during the first election round last year.

Likelihood:

2. No-confidence vote forces Merz out

Pressure from within the party cannot actually force Merz to resign. For historical reasons, the German constitution provides elected chancellors with a very stable position.

Given that, the only possibility to forcibly oust him would be through a no-confidence vote. However, the German constitution requires that such a vote must be “constructive,” meaning an opposing candidate must at the same time receive a majority to replace Merz.

This makes such a scenario very unlikely. Apart from the negative public image that the CDU/CSU would display by openly seeking to topple their chancellor in parliament, it seems unlikely that any candidate could immediately get the required votes amid the thin majority of the coalition and the negotiations that would likely have to happen first with the SPD.

Likelihood:

3. Merz seeks a confidence vote

Merz could also call for a vote of confidence himself, seeking to show that he still has sufficient support within the coalition — or otherwise open the door to snap elections. It’s a scenario that has happened in the past, most recently with Scholz in December 2024.

Should Merz lose the vote, Steinmeier could decide to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days — but only if Merz proposes it to him. However, given the strong position of the AfD in current polls, neither the CDU nor SPD has an interest in new elections at this stage.

It would also be possible to elect a new chancellor within those 21 days, if there is a quick majority for a successor.

All in all, not too likely.

Likelihood:

4. Far-right support against Merz

Theoretically, it would be possible for a Merz successor to get the necessary majority in parliament by receiving indirect backing from the AfD (minority government) or even form a coalition with the far-right party.

CDU/CSU and AfD would enjoy a comfortable majority in parliament, but it would mean breaking with Germany’s anti-far-right “firewall.”

However, it’s an idea that is unacceptable for many in the party leadership. Merz himself has also ruled out staying in power with far-right support.

Likelihood:

5. Merz clings to power

Contrary to the Saxony-Anhalt election aftermath, where the chancellor seemed discouraged and delivered an unconvincing speech in the Bundestag, he now appears to want to fight for his leadership.

Merz’s position was bolstered by a letter Wednesday from eight center-right state premiers — including Wüst and Rhein, but not Söder — in which they wrote that “Germany needs reliability and action” instead of “discussions about personnel.” The letter also refers to elections in France, Italy, Poland, Spain and Greece next year, noting that “a stable and strong Germany” is now needed in Europe.

The letter is far from an unwavering support for Merz; in fact, it doesn’t even mention his name and may also be an attempt to quell internal debates ahead of the important elections on Sunday. However, it may also mean that there isn’t sufficient appetite among senior party leaders to oust Merz at this point. Instead, the party may seek to close ranks and regain popularity by urging the SPD to pursue even more vigorous social reforms.

Likelihood: