Final poll sets stage for Texas Senate race before Election Day - USA Today

Election Day is almost here, and a new poll is setting the stage for a nationally watched Texas U.S. Senate race, as Democrats hope to flip the Republican seat blue for the first time since 1988.

A final poll from the New York Times/Siena University, released Nov. 1, shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 50% to 43%.

The 7-point lead is outside the poll's 3.3 percentage-point margin of error and was conducted among 1,215 Texas voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1.

In the state's governor's race, Democrat challenger Gina Hinojosa and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott are statistically tied, 48% to 47%.

As Texans head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, here's how the polls compare to other recent polls.

Over the past few months, Democrat Talarico has led or tied Paxton either within the margin of error — making it a statistical tie — or just outside it.

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, released Oct. 22, found that 48% of likely voters support Talarico and 46% support Paxton — a 2-point lead within the poll's 3.1 percentage points margin of error.

The Cook Political Report also published a battleground poll, released Oct. 21, on the Texas Senate race showing Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49% to 44% — a 5-point lead outside the poll's 3.2 percentage points margin of error.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.