Fantasy football risers and fallers after Week 2: What's real, what's not? - USA Today

Every year, Week 1 tricks us into thinking we have our answers. Then Week 2 reminds us the NFL season is long. You don’t want to overreact to everything that happens in the first couple of weeks, but we get a barrage of new information that shifts our stances. Injuries are the biggest mover, but changes in roles and scheme fits can impact things more than we realize.

It turns out the Chicago Bears don’t have the best offense in NFL history. The Dallas Cowboys aren’t as bad as Week 1 might have led us to believe. Ja’Marr Chase, despite his dud in Week 1, is still a really good player. And the Los Angeles Chargers ... well, maybe they just aren’t as good as we had hoped.

Week 2 provides new insight, and with that, adjustments in player values. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football heading into Week 3.

Purdy is playing lights out through the first two weeks. He is currently leading all quarterbacks in EPA (expected points added), CPOE (completion percentage over expectation), and on-target percentage. He’s fourth in fantasy points among all quarterbacks. The film is clean. The analytics are elite. Purdy has proven to be a master of Kyle Shanahan’s system, and he adds just enough rushing moxie to raise his floor and ceiling. You likely drafted Purdy at a steep discount. He was a common target in managers searching for late-round value. But don’t let that investment impair your vision. He’s a plug-and-play QB1 going forward, especially in Week 3 against a susceptible Cardinals defense.

Henderson’s rookie-season tape featured chunk plays, and he did that again in his Year 2 debut with a 39-yard score. Henderson needs just a small crease to score from anywhere on the field. The biggest knock against Henderson as a rookie was simply his inability to get on the field. The team clearly trusts Rhamondre Stevenson, and he was the preferred back in most situations last year. But Henderson’s 60% snap share was the second-highest of any game Henderson has ever played alongside Stevenson. If he’s getting a majority workload in his first game back from injury, it’s not inconceivable that the team has bigger plans for Henderson in Year 2. Stevenson fumbled in Week 2, which opened the door for Henderson to have a good showing. He’s in the weekly RB2 discussion, and his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this range.

The most recent update on Jacobs states that he’ll likely be suspended for four to six games after he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor battery and criminal damage to property. If time on the commissioner’s exempt list counts towards his suspension, he could be back as early as Week 5. The trio of MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson has frankly been terrible. The Packers are desperate for Jacobs to return. When he does, he’ll be an immediate back-end RB1. For managers with strong rosters who got out to a 2-0 start, targeting Jacobs in trades could be a savvy way to add upside and insulation to their running back room. While there was some preseason speculation that Jacobs might not play at all, a return seems more likely by the day. 

On an admittedly small sample (10 rushing attempts), Johnson’s 0.9 missed tackles forced per attempt leads the NFL by a vast margin. Kenneth Walker III has drastically changed the Chiefs’ offensive identity, and they can swap Johnson in while keeping the same scheme. Johnson was a three-down back at Nebraska, and runs with a vigor familiar to Andy Reid’s backfields. He won’t take the lead job from Walker, but he’s made the most of his limited opportunities and should be rostered in all formats. On Monday, Reid said, “Emmett will continue to get more snaps, and that'll take a little bit of the load off Kenny.” His role should expand, and an injury to Walker would push him into the weekly top-15 conversation. In Week 3, the Chiefs are 13.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. If they get up big early, don’t be surprised to see the rookie get some run, making him a worthy flex play for desperate managers.

Washington’s underlying metrics have been elite through the first two weeks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all receivers in both yards per route run and targets per route run. Washington ranks a close second in both categories. The production hasn’t been great. In Week 1, he ran just two routes in the second half after the Jaguars took a big lead. In Week 2, the Jaguars jumped out to an early lead and let off the gas, allowing the Broncos to come back late. Those odd game scripts have led to Trevor Lawrence being 25th in pass attempts after finishing last year sixth overall. Washington's underlying metrics are blistering. A higher-volume game should help him return to the WR1 numbers we saw late last season.

Samuel isn’t a full-time player anymore, but he’s making the most of his opportunities. His 0.28 targets per route run ranks 12th of 145 qualifying receivers to run ten or more routes this season. While his role has shrunk, he’s fresher on his snaps, allowing for efficiency numbers similar to what we saw earlier in his career. Samuel was fantasy’s second overall receiver in scoring with the 49ers in 2021. While he’s no longer that player, he’s in a similar role. He should be rostered in all formats, and you can get him in your lineups as a WR3 or flex.

Kincaid was fantastic in Week 1 and made this list last week. He was even better in Week 2. Operating as the Bills’ secondary receiver behind DJ Moore in Week 1, he became the offensive focal point in Week 2 after Moore left the game injured. He’s leading all tight ends with a ludicrous 4.59 yards per route run, and only Jaxon Smith-Njigba tops him among other positions. Kincaid’s career thus far has been marred by a litany of injuries. But he’s been injury-free through the first two games and enters Week 3 with a clean bill of health. Especially with other high-end tight ends floundering, Kincaid finds himself in a small tier of elite difference makers.

Kelce is doing his best Benjamin Button impression as he starts the 2026 season. The season is young, and we’re working with a small sample size, but his 86 yards per game are the most he’s averaged since his overall TE1 season in 2020. Kelce looks quick, evading defenders and ripping off chunk plays in space. He’s leading all NFL players in yards after the catch. His 12 receptions are third among all tight ends. The Chiefs’ scheme is radically different from what it’s been in years past. Kenneth Walker III has brought back the run threat, opening up seam shots for the veteran tight end. Kelce was quietly fourth in receiving yards among tight ends last year. His advanced age keeps him just outside of the elite tier of tight ends, but he is still a must-start weekly option.

Missed blocking assignments, fumbles, bad bounces, penalties, miscommunication, injuries. It could be bad luck, or the Chargers offense is fundamentally broken. On almost every drive, something goes catastrophically wrong. Herbert threw for more than 5,000 yards in his second season as a pro, proving elite upside. But he hasn’t sniffed that production since. Although he was drafted to be a starter, he’s benchable until we see signs of life. It’s hard to outright drop Herbert in most formats, but he falls outside of the top-15 quarterbacks in Week 3 rankings.

Daniels was ripping off chunk plays as a runner and placing the ball accurately as a passer to start in Week 2. But he dislocated his elbow, an injury he suffered twice last year. He exited Week 9’s game last year with a dislocated elbow, returned in Week 14 only to injure it again, and suffered the same injury just last Sunday. That’s three dislocated elbows in his last 149 NFL snaps. The team has said that they hope Daniels can avoid IR and will use the time off to assess his injury. But given the uncertainty on his return and the likelihood of another mid-game exit when he does, Daniels is droppable in most single-quarterback formats.

Etienne has been a major faller in back-to-back weeks. In Week 1, he ceded a shocking amount of work to Kendre Miller. In Week 2, Miller was inactive, but Etienne lost out on passing-down work to Alvin Kamara. Kamara had 15 opportunities, and Etienne just 10. Frankly, Kamara looked bad. He averaged just 1.6 yards per touch, looking like a 31-year-old off a knee injury. He may improve as he shakes off the rust, but given Kellen Moore’s split backfield over the first two weeks, it’s hard to view Etienne as anything more than a high-end RB3 for now. A Week 3 matchup against the Raiders could help him get back on track. But another dud game would be cause for panic. 

A legitimate run game means the Chiefs no longer have to force short targets to Rice. Rice ranked inside the top ten in targets per route run in each of his first three seasons: 0.27, 0.34, and 0.31. That rate is at 0.11 through Week 2, ranking 120th of 145 qualifying receivers. He scored a touchdown in Week 1. And in Week 2, an unguarded 31-yard catch-and-run leading into the half made up over a third of his receiving total. Those two plays are covering up an otherwise awful start to the season. Things can improve, and there’s reason to think they will as he continues his return from knee surgery. But a different offensive system could end Rice’s run as an elite fantasy asset. If you can trade Rice away for any top-20 wide receiver, you should.

Harrison looks awful as he starts his third year as a pro. Drops have always been an issue, and his inability to separate is on full display. Effort as a blocker litters his Year 3 tape. He looks unengaged and goes through the motions without a semblance of intensity. Through two weeks, he has just four targets and one 33-yard reception. Even on his lone reception, a defender blanketed him during a contested catch, as he failed to separate. The offense runs through Trey McBride, and Michael Wilson has become the clear WR1. Kendrick Bourne has become a full-time player and has pulled 11 targets to Harrison’s four. His pedigree and bloodlines make it hard to give up on him, but fantasy managers in shallow leagues can drop him. He’s trending towards being a frustrating roster clogger.

Loveland is inarguably a full-time player running a diverse allotment of routes in Chicago’s offense. His prospect profile and rookie-season production were elite. But after two weeks, Loveland has just one catch on four targets for three yards. The Vikings pass rush brutalized Loveland in Week 2, most notably when Dallas Turner dogwalked him into Tyson Bagent for a game-ending sack. Loveland’s talent and opportunity are undeniable. You cannot cut him. But fantasy managers can sit him in Week 3 against the Eagles to see if he returns to form. With guys like Dalton Schultz, Oronde Gadsden II, Hunter Henry and Terrance Ferguson presumably on waivers, there’s no reason to force Loveland into your lineup right now.

Every week, Dave Kluge ranks every fantasy-relevant player in his Rest-Of-Season Rankings article at Footballguys, highlighting all of the week's biggest risers and fallers. Check that out here!