Exclusive / Schumer embraces Trump’s campaign travel, puts Senate fight at ‘50/50’

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and GOP campaign chair Tim Scott have something in common: They’re both really excited for President Donald Trump to hit the campaign trail.

“When Trump travels, he hurts people,” Schumer told Semafor in an interview on Wednesday evening. “When he comes to town, that itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.”

Scott described Trump as a critical asset on the campaign trail — albeit for Republicans, not Schumer’s Democrats.

“This is his midterm election,” Scott told reporters of Trump. “President Trump is making the best decisions to keep us in the majority. So I trust his scheduling team and his strategy because his instincts have proven to be good. It’s one of the reasons why we’re in the majority today.”

As Trump prepares to crisscross the Senate battleground map, Scott even threw a gentle jab at GOP Texas candidate Ken Paxton, who said on leaked audio reported by The New York Times that the GOP convention in Texas “dropped our numbers.” Scott said Paxton is “just wrong,” insisting that the convention and Trump’s presence boosted Republicans.

Schumer and Scott otherwise presented dramatically different views of which way the election is going. Scott essentially guaranteed that Republicans will retain the Senate majority, citing improving GOP enthusiasm, a large number of toss-up races, and a huge spending advantage. He predicted his party could even pick up seats.

Schumer, meanwhile, said the battle for the majority is a coin flip — the type of odds basically no one would give Democrats a year ago. He warned that his party could still lose.

“It’s 50-50. We’re right on the edge of winning. Two things could have us lose. One, they steal the election. … The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money,” Schumer said. “All we need is enough to be able to answer the sh*t they’re going to throw at us, and we’re doing well there.”

The Senate was in session on Wednesday, but both parties are in full campaign mode: Democrats rejected stock trading and voter ID legislation and a data center bill from two GOP incumbents — Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Jon Husted of Ohio — refusing to give Republicans any win weeks before the midterms. Scott said that moment “is one of the reasons why we’ll hold on to the majority,” citing the Democratic filibusters of those bills.

But the reality is the battle for the Senate is on a knife’s edge, with Democrats standing a real chance of netting the four seats they need for the majority but Republicans seeing enough tight polls in red territory to hope they can hold on. The boatload of GOP spending in places like Texas and Iowa points to the challenges that Republicans are facing, but even the perpetually sunny Schumer isn’t guaranteeing victory yet.

“Here’s how I sum up the election in one sentence: Can an enormous Republican advantage in dollars defeat an enormous Democratic advantage in candidates and in political climate?” Schumer asked. “I think we win.”

Both parties agree the battleground is focused on GOP held seats in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska and Democratic seats in New Hampshire and Michigan. Democrats think they can compete in Kansas as well — and perhaps a handful of other typically red states.

Scott begrudgingly agreed that Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s re-election campaign against Democrat Adam Hamilton is too close for comfort.

“It’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we’re going to win in Kansas,” Scott said. “It’ll be closer than I want it to be.”

Schumer declined to break down the states individually other than to say Trump’s tariffs on Canada are hurting former Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers. As Democrats in states as far afield as Mississippi and Florida ask the party for more support, he acknowledged there are plenty of opportunities but insisted his party needs to be efficient.

“We have a big map, and a lot of places where we can win, and we’re going to maximize our ability to win as many states as possible,” Schumer said.

Trump’s campaign trail presence is among the biggest variables left in the Senate races. His campaigning in 2018 helped Republicans pick up seats in a number of red states despite a blue wave in the House.

Republicans privately reason that anti-Trump voters in states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas are already baked in. They need the president to turn out the base in those states, despite the risks that a Trump campaign appearance brings.

And with ad reservations close to being set and Congress now vacating Washington until November, the president himself has become the biggest election wildcard.