Escalation watch: Live updates as West ramps up war rhetoric

Armed police maintain road blocks and security checks around RAF Fairford in Fairford, England, September 28, 2026 ©  Getty Images ;   Leon Neal War rhetoric from the UK and its Western European allies has reached a fever pitch, with British officials and commentators pinning a bizarre security incident at RAF Fairford on Russia and Iran. With no letup in sight, RT is tracking the escalation and debunking the psyops in real time.

READ MORE: Five Britons probed over suspected bomb plot outside US air base The arrest of five men near a US airbase on Sunday prompted a counterterror investigation that ended with a whimper, as the men were let go and no explosives or weapons were found. That hasn’t stopped Britain’s ruling Labour Party from declaring that the country is under “threat,” while the British media’s analysts and ‘experts’ pin the blame on Russia and Iran.

These accusations come after a week of intense fearmongering from British officials and journalists, in which retired generals told the BBC that the public must be “psychologically prepared” for conflict with Russia, a Labour Party thought leader suggested that dissidents and Russia sympathizers be “locked up,” and former Brexit Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told British men and women that they “may have to die” in a cataclysmic European war.

This was a marked shift in rhetoric from the British elite. Since 2022, five successive prime ministers have insisted that the UK will arm Ukraine “for as long as it takes” to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, but only a handful of bellicose generals and analysts have predicted an imminent military clash with Moscow. The tactical situation has not changed, and Russia has repeatedly insisted it has no interest in a wider conflict with NATO, but talking heads from both the Labour and Conservative parties are now speaking of war as a done deal.

Meanwhile, Sky News ran ‘The Wargame’ all week – a bizarre five-episode reality show in which real politicians and military chiefs gamed out a hypothetical Russian invasion for the cameras.

With the threat from Russia rising in the real world, a new series from Sky brings together former ministers and military chiefs to test what might happen if the UK faced an attack.Watch the new TV Show 'Wargame' on Sky and NOW from 21 September pic.twitter.com/b9RcuqLHwF

On the continent, Spain’s El Mundo claimed that the CIA had learned of a potential Russian plan to launch drones at France, Italy, or Spain from ships in the Mediterranean. The claim, attributed to Lithuanian intelligence, was quickly shot down by Paris and Rome, as Finnish President Alexander Stubb appealed for calm across the West.

The stakes – and the likelihood of miscalculation – are high. RT is watching and listening, and debunking the most outrageous war propaganda in real time.

Before Iranian proxies or diesel thieves were blamed for the Fairford debacle, here’s a reminder that Britain’s state broadcaster brought on a ‘military expert’ to blame Russia within hours of the news breaking.

“It could be a Russian strategy,” former RAF Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell told the BBC on Monday. “The Russians have been very overt as well as covert about their attacks in the cyber domain…so this could actually be part of them.” 

Breaking News🇬🇧⚡️🇷🇺: Russia Russia Russia - "The thwarted attack on RAF Fairford could have been done by the Russians?".@BBCBreaking military 'expert' Sean Bell accuses the Russian Federation as a possible culprit for the attempted 'terrorist' attack on RAF Fairford last night.… pic.twitter.com/ZXvzVCSkuT

It seems that the script was written long before the facts came out. 

Despite the fact that no explosives were found and all five suspects were released on bail, British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is still trying to spin the incident as a counterterrorism victory and milk it for propaganda value.

”Thanks to the Army’s explosive ordinance disposal team, the scene is now safe,” Mahmood said at the Labour Party’s conference, omitting the fact that there was apparently no ordinance to dispose of.

‘You will never defeat us.’Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood addresses the Labour conference and updates on the foiled RAF bomb plot.📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/W1fENvJH7r

“To all those who mean us harm and plot violence on our soil, let this be a reminder: you will never defeat us,” she added.

There is still no evidence that anyone plotted violence, and every new development this afternoon has suggested that the incident was not terror-related or connected with any foreign nation or group.

Back in Fairford, multiple UK media outlets are reporting that no “viable explosives” were found in any of the three vans. That’s another point for the ‘diesel theft’ theorists, and directly contradicts The Guardian, which claimed that “armed officers found explosives in three vans.”

The Guardian would be due a lecture on the dangers of spreading “disinformation,” if senior officials and its media competitors hadn’t jumped on the same bandwagon.

Read more NATO article 5 is not what you think it is Oftentimes, the most bellicose Western politicians and analysts discuss war with Russia under the assumption that all 32 NATO member states would automatically be involved. This, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin wrote for RT on Sunday, is a “myth.” 

Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty was carefully written in order to limit the US’ exposure to a potential nuclear war in Europe. It requires each member only “to take such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area” in the event of a conflict.

In ‘The Wargame’, the US does not intervene, leaving the UK to fight a nuclear war with Russia minus 88% of NATO’s nuclear arsenal. That some of the series’ participants still consider such a war winnable illustrates just how divorced from reality its premise really is. 

‘The Wargame’ is not the first series of its kind, or even of its name. Back in 1965, the BBC commissioned a “pseudo-documentary” called ‘The War Game’, which depicted an all-out nuclear war between the UK and Soviet Union. Unlike Sky News’ series, the 1965 production juxtaposed calls for war from public figures with the bleak aftermath of a nuclear attack – mass deaths, starvation, and the breakdown of law and order.

It was never aired, with the BBC determining that it would be “too horrifying for the medium of broadcasting.” 

Sky showed no such restraint, with its series seemingly designed to turn dovish politicians into Russia hawks, and manufacture consent for the kind of military spending hikes that make the worst-case-scenario depicted in 1965 more likely.

Even before they took to the airwaves this morning, Sky News’ analysts had the public primed to view the Fairford incident as a terror plot. Over five nights last week, ‘The Wargame’ treated viewers to a “constructed documentary” depiction of a Russian attack on the UK, which began with the assassination of two RAF officers and the sinking of a British vessel by a Russian submarine.

A cast of British politicians and military chiefs then decide, in front of a live audience, whether to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Their decision is never revealed.

Why Nicola Sturgeon now thinks differently about defenceSky has launched its new four-part series The Wargame - looking at what could happen if Russia was to launch an attack on UK soil. To watch the full interview download and subscribe to the Sky News Defence Insider app.… pic.twitter.com/IcPvkAaR2z

Defense Secretary Wes Streeting praised the show for boosting public support for increased military spending. At a preview screening in London, Streeting thanked its producers for writing his “spending review submission.”

Burnham is currently chairing a COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms) meeting to discuss the RAF Fairford incident. Speaking to reporters earlier this afternoon, the prime minister said that the meeting would “make sure we have the full picture, the full situation very clearly in our sights and so maybe we’ll say more about that later today.”

On social media, some alternate explanations have begun to emerge, including the theory that the suspects were common criminals attempting to steal agricultural diesel from farmers in the area.

This RAF Fairford stuff is probably going to turn out to be a bunch of idiots attempting to steal Red Diesel from farms in an area they didn't actually know were close to an RAF base, isn't it?

This theory would explain the plastic drums visible in aerial footage of the vans, and the surprise decision to grant the men bail. It’s just a theory for now, but it’s a potentially embarrassing one for Milliband, Braw, and the other politicians and experts who jumped straight to describing the incident as an “attack.”

Read more Britain’s elites want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining Fairford is dominating the headlines today, but the media’s response is not happening in a vacuum. The rampant speculation – particularly Sky News’ security expert mentioning Iran and Russia in connection with the incident – comes after weeks of panic-mongering in the UK and mainland Europe, all of it centered around the supposed threat of a Russian attack. 

If you’re just catching up, RT columnist Tarik Cyril Amar broke down the “absurdities, inconsistencies, and plain silliness” of the war rhetoric in an op-ed last week, concluding that Britain’s “insane and malevolent” elites “want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining.” 

The last sentence is key: Russia has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of or interest in a war with the UK. The threat remains imaginary.

READ MORE: Five Britons probed over suspected bomb plot outside US air base It’s worth taking a moment to look at what exactly happened at RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force base used solely by the US Air Force.

What we know for certain is that five men, described by counter-terror police as residents of London, were arrested near the base on Sunday morning, after a local farmer alerted authorities to three suspicious vans parked in the area. 

Everything else is unclear. The farmer told Sky News that it took almost six hours for police to respond to her calls, and that she saw at least seven other men escape into nearby woodland. Multiple British media outlets have said that the operation was not “intelligence-led,” meaning the men were not under surveillance, but US President Donald Trump suggested that American and British agents had the five men “under review for a long time.”

Bomb squad robots searched the three vans, but it is unclear whether any explosives were found. Further information about the suspects, including where they are being detained, is being kept under wraps. According to a photograph published by the BBC, some of the men appear to be Middle Eastern or north African in origin. 

Although Prime Minister Andy Burnham has urged the public “not to speculate while the authorities establish the full facts,” several media outlets and analysts have fingered Iran as the chief suspect. Tehran has said that it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations.”

The five men arrested at RAF Fairford have been released on bail, but are still under investigation, counterterror police chief Laurence Taylor has said. 

The decision suggests that police didn’t find enough evidence to extend their detention, but Taylor insisted that “they absolutely remain under investigation.”

Nor has Taylor shut down speculation about foreign involvement. “We are considering this from every possible angle,” he said, “including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.”

Welcome to RT’s live coverage of the wave of escalation spreading through political and media circles across Western Europe. You join us on Monday afternoon, and despite the fact that we’ve seen little concrete information about the apparent terror plot at RAF Fairford yesterday, British officials and talking heads have already put their own spin on events.

Speaking at a Labour Party conference Foreign Secretary Ed Milliband described the incident as an example of “the threats our country faces,” and called on the public to “roll up our sleeves” and “fight for our values.” Milliband did not assign blame for the supposed attack plot, but still insisted that there would be a “fight” ahead.

"We will always stand up for our security against those who would do us harm"Foreign Secretary Ed Milliband says the suspected terror plot at RAF Fairford is a 'reminder of the threats our country faces' pic.twitter.com/cnh4temCHw

On Sky News, Elizabeth Braw – a ‘security expert’ at the NATO-funded Atlantic Council – warned that “conflict is coming to the UK.” 

“It’s not going to be just Iran. We already know that Russia is commissioning people to carry out attacks in the UK,” she claimed. Iran has denied any role in the Fairford ‘plot’, and there is no evidence that Russia has carried out, or paid anyone else to carry out “attacks” in the UK.

The five men arrested at RAF Fairford have been released on bail, but are still under investigation, counterterror police chief Laurence Taylor has said. 

The decision suggests that police didn’t find enough evidence to extend their detention, but Taylor insisted that “they absolutely remain under investigation.”

Nor has Taylor shut down speculation about foreign involvement. “We are considering this from every possible angle,” he said, “including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.”

READ MORE: Five Britons probed over suspected bomb plot outside US air base It’s worth taking a moment to look at what exactly happened at RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force base used solely by the US Air Force.

What we know for certain is that five men, described by counter-terror police as residents of London, were arrested near the base on Sunday morning, after a local farmer alerted authorities to three suspicious vans parked in the area. 

Everything else is unclear. The farmer told Sky News that it took almost six hours for police to respond to her calls, and that she saw at least seven other men escape into nearby woodland. Multiple British media outlets have said that the operation was not “intelligence-led,” meaning the men were not under surveillance, but US President Donald Trump suggested that American and British agents had the five men “under review for a long time.”

Bomb squad robots searched the three vans, but it is unclear whether any explosives were found. Further information about the suspects, including where they are being detained, is being kept under wraps. According to a photograph published by the BBC, some of the men appear to be Middle Eastern or north African in origin. 

Although Prime Minister Andy Burnham has urged the public “not to speculate while the authorities establish the full facts,” several media outlets and analysts have fingered Iran as the chief suspect. Tehran has said that it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations.”

Read more Britain’s elites want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining Fairford is dominating the headlines today, but the media’s response is not happening in a vacuum. The rampant speculation – particularly Sky News’ security expert mentioning Iran and Russia in connection with the incident – comes after weeks of panic-mongering in the UK and mainland Europe, all of it centered around the supposed threat of a Russian attack. 

If you’re just catching up, RT columnist Tarik Cyril Amar broke down the “absurdities, inconsistencies, and plain silliness” of the war rhetoric in an op-ed last week, concluding that Britain’s “insane and malevolent” elites “want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining.” 

The last sentence is key: Russia has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of or interest in a war with the UK. The threat remains imaginary.

Burnham is currently chairing a COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms) meeting to discuss the RAF Fairford incident. Speaking to reporters earlier this afternoon, the prime minister said that the meeting would “make sure we have the full picture, the full situation very clearly in our sights and so maybe we’ll say more about that later today.”

On social media, some alternate explanations have begun to emerge, including the theory that the suspects were common criminals attempting to steal agricultural diesel from farmers in the area.

This RAF Fairford stuff is probably going to turn out to be a bunch of idiots attempting to steal Red Diesel from farms in an area they didn't actually know were close to an RAF base, isn't it?

This theory would explain the plastic drums visible in aerial footage of the vans, and the surprise decision to grant the men bail. It’s just a theory for now, but it’s a potentially embarrassing one for Milliband, Braw, and the other politicians and experts who jumped straight to describing the incident as an “attack.”

Even before they took to the airwaves this morning, Sky News’ analysts had the public primed to view the Fairford incident as a terror plot. Over five nights last week, ‘The Wargame’ treated viewers to a “constructed documentary” depiction of a Russian attack on the UK, which began with the assassination of two RAF officers and the sinking of a British vessel by a Russian submarine.

A cast of British politicians and military chiefs then decide, in front of a live audience, whether to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Their decision is never revealed.

Why Nicola Sturgeon now thinks differently about defenceSky has launched its new four-part series The Wargame - looking at what could happen if Russia was to launch an attack on UK soil. To watch the full interview download and subscribe to the Sky News Defence Insider app.… pic.twitter.com/IcPvkAaR2z

Defense Secretary Wes Streeting praised the show for boosting public support for increased military spending. At a preview screening in London, Streeting thanked its producers for writing his “spending review submission.”

‘The Wargame’ is not the first series of its kind, or even of its name. Back in 1965, the BBC commissioned a “pseudo-documentary” called ‘The War Game’, which depicted an all-out nuclear war between the UK and Soviet Union. Unlike Sky News’ series, the 1965 production juxtaposed calls for war from public figures with the bleak aftermath of a nuclear attack – mass deaths, starvation, and the breakdown of law and order.

It was never aired, with the BBC determining that it would be “too horrifying for the medium of broadcasting.” 

Sky showed no such restraint, with its series seemingly designed to turn dovish politicians into Russia hawks, and manufacture consent for the kind of military spending hikes that make the worst-case-scenario depicted in 1965 more likely.

Read more NATO article 5 is not what you think it is Oftentimes, the most bellicose Western politicians and analysts discuss war with Russia under the assumption that all 32 NATO member states would automatically be involved. This, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin wrote for RT on Sunday, is a “myth.” 

Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty was carefully written in order to limit the US’ exposure to a potential nuclear war in Europe. It requires each member only “to take such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area” in the event of a conflict.

In ‘The Wargame’, the US does not intervene, leaving the UK to fight a nuclear war with Russia minus 88% of NATO’s nuclear arsenal. That some of the series’ participants still consider such a war winnable illustrates just how divorced from reality its premise really is. 

Back in Fairford, multiple UK media outlets are reporting that no “viable explosives” were found in any of the three vans. That’s another point for the ‘diesel theft’ theorists, and directly contradicts The Guardian, which claimed that “armed officers found explosives in three vans.”

The Guardian would be due a lecture on the dangers of spreading “disinformation,” if senior officials and its media competitors hadn’t jumped on the same bandwagon.

Despite the fact that no explosives were found and all five suspects were released on bail, British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is still trying to spin the incident as a counterterrorism victory and milk it for propaganda value.

”Thanks to the Army’s explosive ordinance disposal team, the scene is now safe,” Mahmood said at the Labour Party’s conference, omitting the fact that there was apparently no ordinance to dispose of.

‘You will never defeat us.’Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood addresses the Labour conference and updates on the foiled RAF bomb plot.📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/W1fENvJH7r

“To all those who mean us harm and plot violence on our soil, let this be a reminder: you will never defeat us,” she added.

There is still no evidence that anyone plotted violence, and every new development this afternoon has suggested that the incident was not terror-related or connected with any foreign nation or group.

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