El Niño warning: SAWS calls for early planning ahead of 2026/27 summer - IOL

South Africans are being urged to prepare early for a potentially hotter and drier 2026/27 summer as a strong El Niño rapidly intensifies.

South Africans, farmers and disaster management authorities are being urged to prepare early for the 2026/27 summer as a rapidly intensifying El Niño raises the risk of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) said the country should focus on preparedness rather than wait for possible impacts to materialise, as forecasts indicate the current El Niño could become exceptionally strong by late 2026 or early 2027.

The call follows a media conference bringing together climate scientists, disaster management officials and experts from the agriculture and health sectors to discuss how South Africa should plan for the months ahead.

The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) said preparations should begin before communities experience the effects of adverse weather.

“The NDMC’s approach is that preparedness must begin before impacts materialise,” SAWS said.

While forecasts can guide preparations, authorities stressed that local risk assessments should determine decisions and responses.

The NDMC said cooperation across government and society would be essential, with communities needing clear warnings and practical information about protective measures.

Its central message was: “Please help us turn information into action.”

University of Pretoria climatologist Prof Willem Landman confirmed that South Africa was already experiencing an El Niño event, with the 2026/27 event developing unusually early and rapidly.

“The event is now a mature coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon and is rapidly intensifying,” SAWS said.

Forecasts indicate a very strong El Niño could peak in late 2026 or early 2027.

However, authorities warned against treating the strength of El Niño as a direct prediction of drought.

“The magnitude of the El Niño should, therefore, not be interpreted as a direct indication of the magnitude or spatial distribution of impacts over southern Africa,” SAWS said.

Agriculture is one of the sectors being urged to prepare early.

The Agricultural Research Council said El Niño is generally associated with reduced grazing and lower summer grain yields, although impacts differ from one event to another.

Current agricultural conditions ahead of the 2026/27 summer are more favourable than those before the 2015/16 summer, but experts warned that this could change as the season progresses.

“A conservative management strategy is advised during El Niño summers,” SAWS said.

The health sector is preparing for the possibility of extreme heat, with particular concern for vulnerable communities, young children, elderly people and people living with chronic illnesses.

The statement warned that South Africa was experiencing “more frequent, intense and prolonged heat events”.

Health authorities are using Heat Health Action Plans focusing on warning systems, preparedness, vulnerable groups and monitoring.

SAWS said its latest seasonal forecasts show increasing probabilities of below-normal rainfall towards mid-summer, while there are “very high probabilities” of above-normal temperatures.

SAWS senior manager for Disaster Risk Reduction Rudzani Malala stressed that El Niño itself should not be regarded as a disaster.

“The El Niño in itself is not a disaster, but the way in which people react and plan for it should be in a responsible and proactive manner,” SAWS  said.