El Nino 2026 Could Be Strongest in 1,000 Years
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - This year’s El Nino could become one of the strongest climate events in the past 1,000 years, with rising Pacific Ocean temperatures already breaking records, according to new research and climate experts.
A recent study published in the journal Science revealed that El Niño events over the past four decades have been more than a third stronger than those recorded during the preindustrial era. Researchers based their findings on temperature records preserved in corals from the Galápagos Islands and linked the intensification to human-caused global warming.
University of Exeter climate scientist Prof. Mat Collins said this year’s El Niño has already reached record levels and could become the strongest in the past millennium. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific have reached about 3 degrees Celcius above average, matching the previous record set during the 2015 super El Nino. Should current trends persist, regional anomalies could reach 4 degrees Celcius above normal.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when normally cool waters in the tropical eastern Pacific warm up, disrupting rainfall and weather patterns around the world. Typically recurring every two to seven years and lasting between nine and 12 months, this year's cycle has yet to reach its peak, as noted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects the event to continue intensifying through the end of 2026.
The combination of El Niño and global warming could also heighten the likelihood of severe weather worldwide. Collins said the two are separate phenomena, but their impacts can overlap. Searing global temperatures have already increased the baseline temperature of the Pacific, making it difficult to determine how much of the current record heat is driven by El Niño and how much is linked to climate change.
The effects are already being felt in some regions. Reports highlighted by The Guardian indicate that El Niño has fueled severe droughts and crop failures across Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, while sapping the strength of India’s monsoon season. Indonesia faces a higher risk of forest and land fires, while severe dry spells threaten to grip the Amazon rainforest.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projected a greater than 90 percent probability of a major El Niño taking hold during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–2027. The agency also estimated a 69 percent chance that the event will surpass the intensity of any El Niño recorded since modern tracking began in 1950.
