'Double-edged sword': Trump blitzes red states amid plunging popularity - USA Today

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s use of precious campaign time to visit traditional Republican strongholds has left Democrats feeling “on the edge” abour reclaiming a narrowly divided Congress on Nov. 3.

The president's first major midterm campaign blitz is taking him through a set of GOP-held states, including several not considered vulnerable. That's raised eyebrows at a time when Democrats are competitive in a growing number of races.

But political experts say the strategy is understandable.

Trump, saddled with the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, could actually have the unintended consequence of energizing Democrats if he traveled to more competitive states, political experts said. His rallies aim to spur turnout beyond where he appears. And Republicans enjoy an enormous fundraising advantage to spend on television ads that can spread his message.

“Trump is a double-edged sword,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY. “Does he have the potential to rile up Democrats and be used as a motivator to get them to turn out? Yes. But Republicans at this point have to focus on turning out their own voters.”

The president’s party traditionally loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Trump's ability to move legislation easily through Congress and stay out of the crosshairs of Democratic investigations hang in the balance if Republicans lose the House or Senate.

The GOP controls the Senate 53-47 seats and the House 218 to 214, with one independent who used to be a Republican, so flipping the affiliation of any seat is a priority for both parties.

Trump pledged to barnstorm 35 competitive congressional races in the final month of the campaign. Kicking off the tour, Trump visited Texas and Oklahoma on Oct. 1 and Alabama on Oct. 2, and is slated to be in Ohio on Oct. 3 and Nebraska on Oct. 5.

“I won all of them by a lot. I’m going there just to make sure,” Trump told reporters Oct. 1 as he headed to Texas.

But his approval rating has dropped precipitously since then, to 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,277 adults conducted Sept. 17 to 20. Polling suggests the unpopularity is largely because of his handling of the economy and the war on Iran, which has spiked gas prices.

“Americans are frustrated with higher costs and a government they don’t think is working for them,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, told reporters Sept. 30 at the Capitol. “We’re on the edge of taking back the Senate.”

Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who heads the campaign committee for Senate Republicans, noted that Ronald Reagan lost eight Senate seats in the sixth year of his administration. George W. Bush lost six seats at the same mark. And Barack Obama lost nine seats.

Daines, who is retiring at the end of the year, said the pessimistic view is that 2026 “feels a lot like” Bush’s midterm in 2006, when gas prices doubled and six out of 10 people opposed the Iraq war. But he said the optimistic view is that polls are tightening up this year.

“It’s a tough environment,” Daines said Oct. 1 at the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Grand Strategy Summit. “I think what’s key is bringing home the Republicans.”

Renee Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, said concerns about a Middle East war and higher prices might be powerful now than under Bush.

“We have all that on steroids now,” Cross told USA TODAY. “Republicans got a huge drubbing in 2006. The conditions now are a lot worse.”

Taylor said Bush and Obama were both unwelcome in key states and districts for their midterms.

“I think it’s a little unusual,” Taylor said of Trump’s red-state rallies. “But we have certainly seen presidents in the past not be embraced when they’ve become unpopular.”

Despite Trump’s unpopularity, Republicans have a significant fundraising advantage to boost their candidates through advertising. Democrats had $130.4 million on hand in their three major party organizations Aug. 31 compared to $238.6 million for their Republican counterparts, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Republicans spent $200 million more on congressional ads in September than Democrats, according to AdImpact, which tracks the spending.

Mark Jones, a political-science professor at Rice University, said Texas is an “exceptionally expensive” place to campaign with 20 media markets including two of the largest in Houston and Dallas.

“The cost of a statewide ad campaign here is the same as running a statewide ad campaign in Alaska and Iowa and Michigan and New Hampshire and Maine, and perhaps even throw in the Columbus market,” Jones told USA TODAY.

But GOP fundraising figures short-change their potential advantage when tallying up all funds available.

Trump pledged to spend $400 million on midterms through his MAGA political action committee. The Senate Leadership Fund, which is spending $100 million in Texas to help Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, had $238.6 million on hand Aug. 31, according to the FEC.

“I don’t think resources are going to be an issue,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, told reporters Sept. 23 at the Capitol.

The last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas was 1994. But Democrats see a chance to flip a seat with state Rep. James Talarico after Paxton, the state's controversial attorney general, beat four-term GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary.

"It’s a state where Republicans don’t have to sweat out state level elections all that much," said Jones, the Rice professor. "There’s a lot of sweating in the Republican Party today."

Trump won Texas with 56% of the vote in 2024. But Talarico and Paxton are jockeying within the margin of error in recent polls, according to average by Real Clear Politics.

“We have to win this election,” Trump told reporters as he left the White House for Texas.

Some friction has arisen in the race. Paxton reportedly complained that Trump’s first Republican midterm convention in September hurt his polling, though his campaign dismissed the report as "manipulated nonsense." Trump derided Paxton’s appearance and speaking ability at the convention but has endorsed him and called him loyal. Trump kept up the jocular patter during an hourlong speech Oct. 1, after touring a Peterbilt truck factory in Denton, Texas.

"He can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest," Trump said of Paxton. "Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. Good. I didn't even know if he was here."

Texas isn't the only red state-turned-toss-up that Trump is visiting. He lands Oct. 3 in Vandalia, Ohio, a state the president won with 55% of the vote.

But GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill out Vice President JD Vance’s term, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are running within the margin of error in a USA TODAY poll Sept. 30 and in an average of recent polling by Real Clear Politics.

"Across the country we’ve seen purple turn into light blue, pink turn into purple and dark red turn into pink," said Jones, the Rice professor.

Trump, who won Nebraska with 60% of the vote in 2024, heads to Grand Island on Oct. 5 to campaign for Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Nebraska, who faces independent Dan Osborn, a union leader and Navy veteran, in a surprisingly competitive Senate race.

Since Sept. 1, Republicans have spent $7 million on broadcast ads in the Cornhusker state, with another $8 million booked before Election Day, according to AdImpact data analyzed by NBC News. Osborn and groups backing him have spent $3.5 million and have reserved another $1.5 million. Overall spending in the race is $24 million, making it one of the 10 most expensive in the country.

Cross said it was “pretty telling” that someone thought Trump needed to rally his own base in states such as Nebraska and Oklahoma.

“I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to pay off for the Republicans the way that President Trump intends,” said Cross of the University of Houston. “I just don’t know that in the long run if he just needs to just stay in the White House.”

Trump, who won Oklahoma with 66% of the vote in 2024 and boasted of winning each of the state's counties in his three presidential elections, said he was visiting Durant Oct. 1 to support Republicans running for Congress and governor.

“We have to make sure people get out and vote even in Oklahoma,” Trump said as he left the White House. “I go there because they want to see me there.”

Richard Bensel, a government professor at Cornell University, told USA TODAY that presidents typically travel to the most competitive districts in midterms. But because of Trump’s unpopularity, Bensel said Democrats would likely welcome his appearance in competitive states.

“It’s very surprising,” Bensel said of Trump campaigning in GOP states. “I think it’s mainly a need for personal adulation. He has an incredible appetite for this kind of display of affection and strength and popularity.”

In Oklahoma, Trump endorsed a slate of GOP House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates.

But he left out GOP Rep. Stephanie Bice, whose Oklahoma City district may be most at risk against Democratic challenger Jena Nelson. Bice made headlines across the state as leaked audio recordings revealed her critiques of the Iran War, along with comments about “Trump fatigue” to students at Oklahoma State University. 

Trump told the Oklahoma crowd to encourage friends in other states to vote Republican.

"We are worried about Michigan, we are worried about Texas. We are worried about a few states," he said. "It's all about 35 different contests."

Trump, who won Alabama with 64% of the vote in 2024, then headed to Mobile on Oct. 2 for a governor’s race and a House race.

GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville is running against former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones for governor. Republicans would like to knock off Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures after redrawing the map of his district. Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques was expected to speak at the rally.

Trump singled out Alaska, where he won 55% of the vote, when he announced his campaign blitz.

GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term, but former Democratic state Rep. Mary Peltola led the first round of voting Aug. 18, 50% to 41%. A rival candidate also named Dan Sullivan hurt the incumbent’s results.

“I will go to Alaska to help Dan Sullivan get elected,” Trump told reporters Sept. 2. “It’s close for one reason: they have a phony Dan Sullivan.”

Trump demonstrated the value of the White House by holding a news conference Sept. 30 that Sen. Sullivan attended, about South Korea agreeing to invest $200 billion in U.S. energy projects. The investments were part of a trade agreement negotiated last year.

But South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung said on social media the $54 billion pipeline for liquefied natural gas that Trump cited for Alaska would only go forward after reviewing its commercial viability and compliance with his country’s laws.

"No decision has been made on whether to invest or on the size of the investment," South Korea’s industry ministry said in a statement.

Trump also held an Oval Office news conference to announce a $15 billion steel plant for Iowa, which has a dead heat for Senate.

"Thank you for what you and the entire team did to solidify this investment in American greatness and American manufacturing," Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is the GOP nominee for Senate, told Trump. She called the plant "a game-changer for our state."

Hinson is campaigning to succeed GOP Sen. Joni Ernst against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.

Trump won the state with 56% of the vote. But Hinson and Turek are in a virtual tie according to an average of polling by Real Clear Politics. Trump said at the steel announcement he would campaign in Iowa for Hinson.

"We’re going to do a great rally and we’ll all be there together,” Trump said.