Democrats' optimism in battleground states may be a mirage, data shows - Newsweek
Democrats are optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate in the midterm elections following a string of favorable polls. But history offers a warning to Democrats, as polls in recent elections underestimated Republicans in key states.
Control of the Senate could come down to just a handful of races where polls show razor-thin margins. Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas have emerged as the most competitive races where both parties are hopeful about their chances.
Recent polling points to tight races in each of those states. But Republicans have outperformed polling averages in many of those same states over the past few elections. Polling errors are not necessarily repeated from cycle to cycle. But a similar pro-Republican polling error this cycle would not bode well for Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate.
It’s “impossible to know for sure” what the polling error could look like this year, Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
“There are some pretty big known unknowns in this election, which could throw off polls,” he said. “A primary one is turnout. Polls must make educated guesses about who is most likely to vote. It’s a little trickier in midterms.”
This year, there appears to be a motivation gap favoring Democrats, he said.
“How much of that has been built into models of likely voters? What if Republicans get some 11th-hour enthusiasm, after those models have been set?” he said.
While polls underestimated Republicans in several recent cycles, pollsters adjust their methodologies in response to those misses. That means there is no guarantee that any polling error seen in previous elections will repeat itself in 2026.
Democrats have plenty of reasons to be hopeful about this year’s elections.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told Politico in an interview published on Thursday that he’s optimistic about the state of the race.
“We have lots of different paths to victory, and we’re not going to turn any of them down,” he told the publication.
Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party has suffered losses in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows in recent polls amid voter frustration with the economy. Trump campaigned on bringing down prices, but the cost of living remains high, and gas prices have soared amid the Iran war.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll, for instance, showed that Trump’s net approval stood at -26 points, with 59 percent disapproving and 33 percent approving of the president. That’s the lowest point of the second term and a major warning for Republicans.
It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 24 to 27, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Democrats believe they can exploit his unpopularity to expand the battleground into more conservative states that backed Trump by double digits, like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Doing so is necessary to chip away at Republicans’ 53-47 majority in the November 3 election.
Recent special election results have also fueled Democrats’ optimism. Democrats have flipped numerous Republican-held seats in recent special elections. While the low turnout of these races does not necessarily reflect what will be seen in November, they do underscore Democrats’ enthusiasm.
These special elections, as well as midterm dynamics and strong polls, have contributed to Democrats’ belief that control of the Senate is competitive this year.
Despite that Democratic optimism, there is still a risk that polls could be underestimating Republicans in several of these key races.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Republicans outperformed the polls by several points in the three Midwestern states with key Senate races this year—by 9 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio and 5 points in Michigan.
“I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024,” he said. “So you look at this, and you go, you know what, maybe we should just hold on a second here because we've seen this dance before. And it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counting.”
A similar polling error also played out in 2018, the midterm during Trump’s first term in office when he was not on the ballot, Enten said.
A pro-Republican polling error in the six key Senate races would indicate these races are closer than they appear, or that Republican candidates have an outright advantage to hold onto the Senate majority in the midterms.
Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola, in what has become one of the most closely watched races of the midterms.
The latest polls do show a tight race between the two candidates. The latest Alaska Survey Research poll showed Peltola up 4 points, 52 percent to 48 percent, while a recent AARP poll showed Peltola up 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent.
The Alaska Survey Research poll surveyed 1,352 likely voters from September 10 to 12, while the AARP poll surveyed 800 likely voters from September 8 to 11.
But those polls have been off in the state before. In 2020, an Alaska Survey Research poll showed Sullivan up 4 points, according to Alaska Public Media. He ended up winning by nearly 13. In 2022, the AARP poll showed Republicans Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka tied on the final ballot of ranked-choice, but Murkowski won by more than 7 points.
Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sullivan, emphasized that the state is tough to poll in a statement to Newsweek on Thursday.
"Alaska is a notoriously difficult state to poll – even local outfits like Alaska Survey Research are perennially wrong, despite trying really, really hard,” Adams said. “With the election a month away, our campaign is confident about where things currently stand and where they are heading."
Newsweek reached out to the Peltola campaign for comment via email.
Polls in Iowa are close. RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate showed Democratic state Representative Josh Turek with a 0.3 point lead over Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson. That means that even a slight polling error benefiting Hinson would shift the race.
Polls underestimated Trump in 2024. The final polling average from 270toWin showed Trump up 4.7 points, 50 percent to 45.3 percent, but Trump ended up carrying the state by 13 points.
A recent poll from Quantus Insights showed Hinson up slightly, 47.1 percent to 45.8 percent, while an InsiderAdvantage poll gave Turek a slight advantage, 47.4 percent to 45.7 percent.
The Quantus poll surveyed 738 Iowans from September 28 to 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, while the survey from InsiderAdvantage was conducted among 1,200 likely voters from September 22 to 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Hinson and Turek campaigns for comment via email.
In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president. Although Maine leans toward Democrats, Collins has won in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan image.
That includes 2020, when polls consistently showed her trailing her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.
Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email. Gideon was up 3.8 points in 270toWin’s polling average, but Collins went on to win with nearly 51 percent of the vote, while Gideon received less than 43 percent.
A progressive independent candidate received nearly 5 percent of the vote, which is notable because Maine uses ranked-choice voting. Had Collins fallen below 50 percent, those voters may have been more aligned with Gideon, though it’s not clear exactly how that would have broken down.
It was still a large polling miss that looms over this year’s race.
Jackson led a new poll of the Senate races from AARP published on Thursday. He was up 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent. However, a poll from The New York Times showed Collins up 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent.
The AARP poll surveyed 982 likely voters from September 20 to 22 and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. The Times poll surveyed 619 likely voters from September 15 to 22.
Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat, is retiring in Michigan, leaving a seat open in one of the country's most competitive battlegrounds. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing to succeed him.
Michigan backed Trump by about 1.4 points in 2024. Polls were slightly off, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading by 1.8 points in 270toWin’s aggregate.
El-Sayed held a 3.4-point lead in RealClearPolitics’ polling average on Thursday.
The latest Fox News poll showed El-Sayed up a single point, 50 percent to 49 percent, while a Marist University survey showed him up 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The Fox News poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, surveyed 1,028 likely voters from September 24 to 28 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Marist poll surveyed 1,235 registered voters from September 24 to 27, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the El-Sayed and Rogers campaigns for comment via email.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a comeback in Ohio, a one-time battleground state that shifted rightward over the past decade. Polls suggest a close race against Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown was up 3.7 points in RCP’s aggregate as of Thursday.
A recent Suffolk University poll showed him up 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, while he led by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent, in a Marist University poll.
The Suffolk poll surveyed 500 likely voters from September 23 to 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the Marist poll was conducted from September 24 to 27 among 1,298 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
But like other key states, Republicans were underestimated in Ohio in the most recent cycle. Trump was up 7.7 points in 270toWin’s average, but went on to win by just over 11 points in November.
Newsweek reached out to the Brown and Husted campaigns for comment via email.
The GOP stronghold of Texas has emerged as part of the battleground this year, as Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton face off in an increasingly close race, according to the polls.
A Big Data Poll gave Talarico a 2-point lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, while a survey from Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research at Texas Southern University and Survey Center showed Talarico up 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent. Overall, Talarico was up 2.7 points in RCP’s average.
The Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely voters from September 24 to 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the poll from TSU was conducted from September 15 to 19 among 1,800 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points.
In 2024, Trump held an average lead of 7.4 percentage points in polls, according to the 270toWin aggregate. But he went on to win by nearly 14 points.
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
Polls will continue to be watched as a key gauge of where the electorate stands over the coming weeks as the midterms approach.
Candidates are making their cases to voters in these key swing states in hopes of motivating their base to turn out to the polls, as well as to win over undecided voters. Issues including Trump’s approval rating, the economy and war in Iran could shape voter behavior in the final weeks of campaign season.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
