Democrats Open Up Widest Lead Over Republicans Just Weeks Before Midterms - Newsweek

Democrats hold their widest advantage of the election cycle in Quantus Insights’ congressional polling, leading Republicans by 8.6 points among likely voters in mid-September.

Emerson and Marquette surveys also show a clear Democratic edge as control of Congress approaches a decisive test.

Candidates in competitive House and Senate races face a political climate shaped by dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and President Donald Trump’s low approval.

National generic-ballot polls measure which party voters prefer for Congress rather than testing named candidates.

They offer a broad view of the political environment, but local campaigns, district boundaries and turnout will determine who wins.

Quantus Insights’ survey of 1,389 likely voters, conducted September 15 to 18, found 50.3 percent supporting the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 41.7 percent favoring the Republican.

Another 6.3 percent were undecided and 1.7 percent selected another candidate. The design-adjusted margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Democrats retained an advantage among habitual voters.

Respondents who participated in the 2022 midterms favored the party 50 percent to 43.9 percent, while people who voted in all four general elections from 2018 through 2024 broke 50.3 percent to 43.9 percent.

Several demographic divides help explain the overall result.

Women preferred Democratic candidates by 20.3 points, while men favored Republicans by 4.2 points.

Democrats led voters younger than 30 by 33.7 points and those ages 30 to 44 by 23.2 points.

Republicans held smaller advantages among both older groups.

Geography produced an equally sharp split. Suburban voters backed Democrats 49.9 percent to 42 percent, while rural respondents chose Republicans 58.4 percent to 34.2 percent.

Urban voters favored Democrats by 37.2 points.

Trump’s approval rating stood at 39.6 percent, compared with 59.1 percent who disapproved, giving him a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -19.5 percentage points.

At the same time, nearly one-quarter of respondents trusted neither party to govern Congress effectively, showing that Democratic ballot support did not amount to broad confidence in the party.

Other polling series point in the same direction.

Emerson College Polling’s most recent national survey, conducted August 16 to 17 among 1,000 likely voters, found Democrats ahead 51 percent to 43 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. Democrats had led by 11 points in July before the gap narrowed to eight.

Marquette Law School Poll’s latest national survey, conducted September 2 to 9, showed Democrats leading 50 percent to 42 percent among 864 registered voters.

That sample had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Among 581 likely voters, Democrats led 54 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 points.

The comparisons are not exact because the pollsters use different voter populations and methods.

Even so, each series places Democrats clearly ahead, strengthening the evidence that Republicans are facing a difficult national backdrop.

Prediction markets tell a similar story, though their prices measure traders’ expectations rather than voter opinion.

As of September 22, Kalshi gave Democrats a 61 percent chance of Senate control.

Its state markets favored Democratic victories in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, although prices can change rapidly as traders react to new information.

Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep at 65 percent, compared with 30 percent for a Republican Senate and Democratic House and 8 percent for a Republican sweep.

Its balance-of-power market had attracted more than $13 million in trading volume.

Markets can absorb polling, campaign news and other developments quickly while requiring participants to risk money on their judgment.

They can also be distorted by limited liquidity, large trades or the composition of their users, so their prices should not be read as election results in advance.

Turnout remains the unresolved question.

Quantus found 88.1 percent of respondents absolutely certain to vote, but certainty fell to 73.9 percent among voters under 30, the age group giving Democrats their biggest lead.

That gap between preference and participation could shape how much of the party’s national advantage reaches the ballot box.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.