Commentary: Japan could redraw the global oil map - CNA

Tokyo isn’t waiting for the end of the war to reassess its supply sources, says Javier Blas for Bloomberg Opinion.

A small tanker sails near an oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Mar 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

LONDON: Among the world’s top fuel-consuming nations, Japan is the most energy insecure. Its import-dependency ratios are scary: It buys overseas 99.9 per cent of the oil it needs; 99.7 per cent of the coal; and 97.8 per cent of the natural gas.

So Tokyo springs into action after every major energy shock to reassess its supply sources, making it a bellwether of global trends. The direction it’s signalling this time? Run away from the Middle East.

Where Japan goes, others in Asia would too. Indeed, South Korea, another major energy importer, has already announced plans to reduce its reliance on the Middle East. India has been less vocal but was trying to diversify even before the war in Iran.

Beyond creating a major conundrum for Middle Eastern suppliers, the shift goes against geographic, economic and historic reasoning. The Middle East and East Asia are relatively close, so it makes commercial sense – particularly when the cost of shipping is high, as it is now – that oil flows from one region to the other. And so it has done for decades.

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less Despite its deep sense of energy vulnerability after the 1973 to 1974 oil crisis, and again in 1979, Japan trusted the Middle East, buying more than 90 per cent of its crude from the region. With the benefit of hindsight, the policy was – to borrow a phrase from Nobuo Tanaka, a former senior energy official in Japan who later ran the International Energy Agency – a “mistake”.