Climate change increased tropical Cyclone Arnab’s damage by 33%: Study

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A drone view shows vehicles stranded along the inundated National Highway 16 (NH-16) near Ichchapuram following flash floods caused by Cyclone 'Arnab', in Srikakulam district, Andhra Pradesh. | Photo Credit: PTI

Climate change increased the damage caused by the tropical Cyclone Arnab, which struck eastern India on October 28, by 33%, resulting in tens of millions of dollars in additional direct economic losses compared to a pre-industrial climate baseline, according to a new study.

It added that the storm brought intense rain, peak 1-minute sustained winds of up to 202 kilometres per hour, and severe damage to infrastructure across Andhra Pradesh.

The study was carried out by researchers at the Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and published on Thursday (November 5, 2026).

For their analysis, researchers used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) to simulate Cyclone Arnab under current conditions (plus 1.3° Celsius above pre-industrial levels) versus a counterfactual climate without human-induced warming.

“Climate change increased Cyclone Arnab’s maximum wind speed by approximately 5%, and intensified its eyewall rainfall rate by 11% at landfall,” according to the study.

It also revealed that direct damage to physical assets in India was estimated to be 33% higher than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate baseline, attributing roughly 25% of the total economic damage directly to climate change.

ALSO WATCH Beyond Cyclone Arnab: can India tackle the growing cost of natural disasters? | Insight India

In a statement, Dr. Nathan Sparks, researcher at the Department of Physics, Imperial College London, said: “These findings are a powerful reminder of the price of inaction. The costs of climate change are not hypothetical future projections — they are hitting coastal communities in eastern India today.”

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