Althia Raj: Byelections in Quebec, Ontario and Saskatchewan could increase Mark Carney’s majority - Toronto Star

The Liberals hold 173 of 343 seats, and six vacancies are up for grabs Dec. 7, with a split Conservative vote in Brantford and a Liberal challenge in Yorkton adding pressure on Poilievre.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, on Aug. 22, 2026. 

Althia Raj is a national politics columnist for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @althiaraj

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s majority in Parliament won’t be tested in a series of byelections called for Dec. 7. The Liberals currently hold 173 of Parliament’s 343 seats, with six vacancies now up for grabs.

Of the six ridings, three are in Quebec — where the Liberals hope to pick up a long-time NDP seat in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, as well as a former Bloc Québécois seat in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, and keep former cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault’s seat in Laurier—Sainte-Marie (a riding once held by BQ leader Gilles Duceppe), two are in Ontario — including Scarborough North (which the Liberals held), and Brantford—Brant South, a seat Conservative Larry Brock held since 2021 but which has been Conservative since 2008, and one seat is in Saskatchewan — in Yorkton—Melville, which was held by staunch Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall until she resigned in late August.

It’s not inconceivable the Grits could win all six. 

In Quebec, Carney’s Liberals lead with 47 per cent of support, according to the most recent survey by Léger Marketing; 64 per cent of Quebec respondents report being satisfied with the performance of the government.

The NDP seat in Quebec may be the last remaining vestige of the party’s 2011 orange wave, but it really belonged to the local MP Alexandre Boulerice. A well-known voice in the union movement, Boulerice quit earlier this year to run for the left-wing party Québec Solidaire and is now a member of the National Assembly (MNA). It should be a relatively easy win for the Grits.

Voters in those ridings, including three in Quebec and one in Saskatchewan, will head to the polls in early December.