A toss-up race in Trump country mirrors a complicated midterm landscape - USA Today
DRUMMOND, MT – A few miles outside this 300-person town, nestled between cow pies and fence posts on a plot of private land just off Interstate 90, there's an unusual political sign.
It encourages travelers to support both a conservative candidate for the state legislature and a progressive running for one of Montana's two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The sign is somewhat of a compromise between Denise Hultman and one of her adult children. Her son, who fought wildfires with Democratic candidate Sam Forstag long before he was a politician, wanted to put the display up. Instead of starting a fight, Hultman, who describes herself as "extremely conservative," added a Republican name of her own.
"I haven't wanted the conflict," she told USA TODAY. But if Election Day doesn't go "straight red all the way," she said, "I'm gonna just be crying."
The roadside family divisions mirror the complicated political dynamics at play in many swing districts this election cycle — especially those once thought to be relatively safe red territory, like Montana's 1st Congressional District.
With days to go until the midterms, many Republicans — electorally hampered by broad affordability concerns, President Donald Trump's unpopularity and the Iran war — have been put on defense in comparatively red states. Those factors have placed control of Congress within Democrats' grasp, jeopardizing the Trump administration's unfinished agenda.
Even in Montana, a state Trump carried overwhelmingly two years ago, Democrats have created an opening to regain power.
The western congressional district, which retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke won in 2024 by 8 percentage points, has for months been inching away from conservative radio host and veteran Aaron Flint, the GOP candidate. In September, the nonpartisan elections handicapper the Cook Political Report moved the race's prospects from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
This month, Cook shifted it to a "toss-up."
"I'm very depressed to tell you Montana 1 is listed as a toss-up," Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told a group of Republicans at a recent Flint campaign event in Bozeman. In the final campaign stretch, Vice President JD Vance and even Trump himself made stops in the Treasure State, too.
At an Oct. 14 rally in the mountain town of Kalispell, the president encouraged Montanans to pretend as though he was on the ballot. Whether he'll ultimately bog down GOP candidates, or lift them up, remains to be seen.
"Even in Montana, Donald Trump is no longer as popular," said Jeremy Johnson, a political science professor at Carroll College in the state capital. "In some ways, Montana is mirroring what we're seeing pretty much nationwide."
Forstag, the union leader and former smokejumper who's running to replace Zinke, is the poster child for a budding "prairie populist" brand. This election cycle, Democrats and independents in relatively rural areas across the country, from Iowa to Nebraska, have embraced similarly new appeals to working-class voters.
In an interview with USA TODAY at a bar in the mining town of Butte, Forstag characterized political representation in America as deeply "out of balance."
"It is far too rare for a working person to actually make it to the halls of Congress," he said in between sips of beer. "This should not be a unique race or situation. But it is."
That image seems to be striking a chord with people like Ready Frost, a general carpenter in Butte, who said he first encountered Forstag at another bar nearby.
"Every time I talked to a politician, it was like a lizard person with a mask on," Frost said. "And then I met Sam."
In places like Montana, however, voters place outsized value on deep roots.
Forstag grew up in Portland, Oregon, whereas Flint, his opponent, is a fifth-generation Montanan. Republicans have also capitalized on the fact that Forstag’s aunt is a sitting congresswoman, Nevada Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. And they've criticized his past state lobbying history for organizations like Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union.
In an interview with USA TODAY, Flint painted his opponent as an outsider hoping to make his district resemble a "failed West Coast city" similar to the one he grew up in.
“The far left is hungry for a win in the heartland of America,” he said.
That argument resonates with Randy Clark, a 66-year-old retired law enforcement officer. A supporter of both Trump and Flint, he uprooted his life in 2018 to escape "the madness of city living." He moved from metro Atlanta to the copper-smelting town of Anaconda, Montana (population roughly 10,000).
While he acknowledges the Flint-Forstag race appears tight, he cautioned against putting too much stock in poll numbers.
"A lot of Republicans are very reserved, and so they don't want to go out and be loud and proud like the Democrats are," he said. "It's almost like they're afraid to say that they're Republican."
Zachary Schermele is the congressional correspondent for USA TODAY. Reach him by email at zschermele@usatoday.com and on Signal @zachschermele.02. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele.
